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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreNCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 14:12: Andre Szmyt 22 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +2.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:09: NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 29 — SYR win probability +4.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:07: Christopher Dunn 42 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:28: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +15.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:58: Christopher Dunn 36 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:13NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it38.9%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%average punt
- Q1 10:25SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snapGo for it60.6%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.1%average punt
- Q1 8:15NCSU 4th & 1 at SYR 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.4%70% to convertField goal37.8%−0.530% to makePunt37.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:11NCSU 4th & 3 at SYR 3, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snapGo for it37.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call36.7%−0.493% to makePunt34.4%−2.7average punt
- Q2 14:12SYR 4th & 3 at NCSU 4, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snapGo for it61.7%45% to convertField goalTheir call61.3%−0.493% to makePunt58.1%−3.6average punt
- Q2 12:38NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it33.9%−0.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%average punt
- Q2 9:06SYR 4th & 6 at NCSU 39, up 7Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it67.1%40% to convertField goal66.4%−0.736% to makePuntTheir call66.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 7:02NCSU 4th & 19 at NCSU 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snapGo for it29.0%−2.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.6%average punt
- Q2 2:18NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it31.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.1%−1.9average punt
- Q3 7:07NCSU 4th & 15 at SYR 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snapGo for it24.7%−2.116% to convertField goalTheir call26.8%66% to makePunt19.2%−7.6average punt
- Q3 1:55SYR 4th & 1 at NCSU 19, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.5%71% to convertField goal68.1%−3.477% to makePunt57.8%−13.7average punt
- Q4 10:30NCSU 4th & 2 at SYR 28, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.5%57% to convertField goal11.3%−1.160% to makePunt7.4%−5.0average punt
- Q4 1:11NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.9%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:56SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.2%97% to makeGo for two60.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:28SYR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.9%97% to makeGo for two83.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:20SYR Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1TD6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3960% → 61%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
59.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 5 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
59.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
60.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 12 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0839% → 39%
Q1 11:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
61.4%
Shane McDonough punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the Syrac 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3061% → 61%
NCSUDrive 4FG12 plays · 48 yds · 6:5439% → 39%
Q1 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
61.3%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 2 yds to the Syrac 46Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
61.4%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Ced Seabrough for 4 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+18
61.8%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Jordan Houston for 18 yds to the Syrac 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5FG10 plays · 71 yds · 3:5361% → 65%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
61.4%
Sean Tucker run for 2 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Payton Wilson) to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+24
61.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 24 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
62.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 12 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+2
62.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 2 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2235% → 34%
SYRDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1967% → 67%
Q2 11:40
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
67.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Maximilian Mang for 8 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 2:0433% → 31%
Q2 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
67.4%
Morris, MJ pass complete to Jones, Darryl for 6 yards to the NCSTATE29, PENALTY NCSTATE illegal motion 5 yards to the NCSTATE18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-7
67.9%
MJ Morris sacked by Leon Lowery for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+9
69.3%
Shane McDonough punt for 41 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 9 yds to the Syrac 20 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Syrac 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9INT9 plays · 39 yds · 3:1970% → 72%
NCSUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5731% → 31%
SYRDrive 11INT3 plays · 36 yds · 0:3068% → 71%
NCSUDrive 12END OF HALF6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1031% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13FG16 plays · 50 yds · 7:3830% → 32%
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
70.0%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 3 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+21
71.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 21 yds to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
66.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-12
66.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the Syrac 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCSt Jordan HoustonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14TD14 plays · 78 yds · 5:2269% → 87%
Q3 5:35
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+9
67.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 9 yds to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
68.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 19 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
72.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 9 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+5
72.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 15 yds to the NCSt 9 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Oronde Gadsden II) to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
86.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15FG22 plays · 56 yds · 9:1716% → 11%
Q3 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
82.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 8 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
83.5%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Jordan Houston for 6 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
82.5%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Darryl Jones for 12 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
83.4%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-1
83.2%
Jack Chambers run for 9 yds to the Syrac 19 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Keyon Lesane) to the Syrac 29Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
89.8%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 4 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
90.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Jordan Houston for 5 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-6
93.1%
Jack Chambers sacked by Jatius Geer and Caleb Okechukwu for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16TD13 plays · 65 yds · 4:2092% → 99%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-7
94.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the Syrac 44 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Courtney Jackson) to the Syrac 34Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+11
95.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 11 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+34
95.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 34 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17DOWNS15 plays · 57 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.1%
Jack Chambers sacked by Jatius Geer for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+11
99.2%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 11 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+16
99.2%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 16 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+18
99.2%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Porter Rooks for 18 yds to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Porter Rooks for 9 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+15
98.9%
Chambers, Jack pass incomplete to Timmons Jr., Terrell, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Johnson, Isaiah) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-9
98.7%
Jack Chambers sacked by Mikel Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Syrac 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:28
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+15.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:09
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 29
+4.1
FG · Q4 6:58
Christopher Dunn 36 yd FG GOOD
-4