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FSU

Florida State 17 at NC State 19

NCSU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:46 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 66 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense−7.7Pregame prior+1.4Garbage-time factor−3.3Score differential−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:29: Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:48: Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Ryan Fitzgerald 47 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:49: Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:33: Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:30FSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:50FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:06NCSU 4th & 6 at FSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56FSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:18NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:08NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:08FSU 4th & 20 at NCSU 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:55FSU 4th & 20 at NCSU 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:55NCSU 4th & 1 at FSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−2.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:13NCSU 4th & 1 at FSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−2.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:10NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:12FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:14NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:48FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:57NCSU 4th & 7 at FSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−11.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:46FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−6.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:11FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−6.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:33NCSU 4th & 6 at FSU 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−8.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−21.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:24NCSU 4th & 5 at FSU 35, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−2.8
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−6.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:25NCSU 4th & 5 at FSU 35, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−2.5
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−6.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 11:29FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:48FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:49NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 5:3044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
55.9%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
55.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
55.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+22
55.9%
Jordan Travis run for 22 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
55.9%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
55.9%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
55.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
56.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2756% → 56%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
56.3%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-7
56.4%
Devin Leary sacked by Malcolm Ray for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
56.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
55.7%
Shane McDonough punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 2:1344% → 43%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
56.0%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
55.8%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-10
56.4%
Jordan Travis sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+8
57.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 8 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:4457% → 58%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
57.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 2
50
+3
57.4%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
57.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 23 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
57.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
57.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
57.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
58.2%
Christopher Dunn 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0342% → 43%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
58.2%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+14
58.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 14 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
57.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+37
58.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 37 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
56.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
56.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
56.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
57.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:3858% → 58%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
58.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
57.8%
Jordan Houston run for 11 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
58.1%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
59.3%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
59.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
58.9%
Devin Leary run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
59.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
57.7%
Shane McDonough punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:4941% → 49%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+71
58.9%
Jordan Travis run for 71 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
50.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2153% → 53%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.4%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
53.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 9 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
53.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
52.5%
Shane McDonough punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:1347% → 48%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
52.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+39
51.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 39 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
50.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 20
OPP 36
0
51.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 20
OPP 36
0
52.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 20
OPP 36
0
53.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 28 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 20
OPP 36
0
52.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10INT
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:4251% → 52%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
51.0%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 9Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+9
50.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 9 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
51.4%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+34
51.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 34 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
54.2%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
54.3%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
53.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ced SeabroughSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
52.7%
Devin Leary pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
52.2%
Devin Leary pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:2550% → 67%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
50.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 2 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
50.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+26
50.3%
Trey Benson run for 26 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
48.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+1
48.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+29
45.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 29 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
32.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:3836% → 34%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.7%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+51
34.2%
Shane McDonough punt for 57 yds , Ontaria Wilson returns for 51 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13FG
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:1068% → 76%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
32.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 7 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+47
24.1%
Ryan Fitzgerald 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 5:0530% → 45%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
30.4%
Jordan Houston run for 8 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+6
31.3%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
30.7%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+25
30.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 25 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
32.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 7 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+16
33.0%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
33.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+9
33.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 9 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
33.6%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
45.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3762% → 62%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
38.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
38.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
38.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 36 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 7 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5842% → 39%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
41.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
40.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ced Seabrough for 4 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
41.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
38.5%
Shane McDonough punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2664% → 64%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
36.0%
Jordan Travis run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
35.0%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
34.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
35.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
36.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:5138% → 44%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.8%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
40.7%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
41.8%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 5
50
+8
41.1%
Jack Chambers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
42.4%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+11
42.5%
Jack Chambers run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
44.1%
Demarcus Jones II run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
44.1%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Ced SeabroughSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+2
42.0%
Jack Chambers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
44.0%
Christopher Dunn 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:1162% → 59%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
39.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
41.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 66 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20FG
4 plays · -23 yds · 2:3949% → 47%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
48.9%
Thayer Thomas pass complete to Jack Chambers for 5 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+5
47.8%
Jack Chambers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 40
OPP 43
+7
42.6%
Jack Chambers run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 33
OPP 36
+53
46.8%
Christopher Dunn 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5652% → 48%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.9%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Markeston DouglasSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
51.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 4:3854% → 68%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
53.5%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+19
54.2%
Jack Chambers run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
57.0%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+14
57.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
57.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+6
57.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
54.5%
Jack Chambers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+27
67.8%
Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5975% → 74%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
75.3%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
75.0%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
74.8%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
71.7%
Shane McDonough punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
74.4%
Shane McDonough punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25INT
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:4733% → 40%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
67.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+10
67.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 10 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
66.0%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+31
67.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 31 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
58.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+7
56.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 7 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
57.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
58.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
59.7%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:3889% → 95%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.9%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
88.9%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
90.8%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
94.8%
J. Chambers takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 6:33
Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOOD
+13.3
TD · Q2 0:48
Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q3 9:49
Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com