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NCSU

NC State 21 at East Carolina 20

ECU
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:48 · Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior−3.0Home team on offense−15.9Garbage-time factor−9.8Score differential−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:17: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 1 yd for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +13.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:12: Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the NCSt 25 — ECU win probability +15.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:58: Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED) — ECU win probability +23.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:49: Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 22 — NCSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 22 — NCSU win probability +34.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:18NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:28NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:34ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:04ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:31NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:24NCSU 4th & 8 at ECU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    75.4%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:20NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.7%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:18ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:45NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:05ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−3.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:18NCSU 4th & 1 at ECU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    76.7%−4.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−14.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:48ECU 4th & 4 at NCSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−3.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:27NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−6.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:04ECU 4th & 1 at NCSU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−22.2
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−48.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:03ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:40NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:09NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:17ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:58ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1INT
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:3222% → 23%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
22.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 20 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
22.5%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Tyler Baker-Williams return for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2177% → 77%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
22.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 5 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
22.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
22.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+10
22.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 42 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 10 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:0823% → 26%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
22.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
23.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+10
23.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 10 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
23.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 3 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
24.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 6
50
+11
24.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 11 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
26.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2474% → 73%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
25.9%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
26.3%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
26.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+9
27.3%
Shane McDonough punt for 52 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 9 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2827% → 28%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
27.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+8
27.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 8 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
28.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
28.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:5671% → 73%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
28.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 6 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
28.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
29.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 6 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+14
29.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 14 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
29.3%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Porter Rooks) to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
30.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 15
OPP 37
-5
30.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Chandler Zavala) to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+6
30.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 6 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+24
31.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 24 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
26.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 12 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5729% → 24%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
28.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
28.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
28.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
23.9%
Luke Larsen punt blocked by Jasiah Provillon returned by Sean Brown for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1725% → 25%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
24.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+20
24.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 20 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
25.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
25.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+3
25.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
24.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2975% → 74%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
24.7%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
24.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 5 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
25.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+6
25.7%
Shane McDonough punt for 48 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 6 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5126% → 28%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
25.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
25.5%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
25.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 10 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
26.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
26.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 8 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+12
27.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Kerry King for 12 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-27
28.2%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Shyheim Battle return for 27 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:0376% → 77%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
24.1%
Leary, Devin pass incomplete to Jones, Darryl, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Jones, Darryl) 15 yards to the NCSTATE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 25
OWN 27
+15
25.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 15 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
24.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 16 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
23.1%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
23.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
23.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
23.3%
Shane McDonough punt for 39 yds, downed at the ECaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:2124% → 24%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
24.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+28
23.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 28 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
24.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
24.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
24.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Kerry KingSimilar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+52
23.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the EASTCRLINA 25 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derrek Pitts Jr.) to the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 3:4275% → 86%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
24.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
24.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+18
25.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 18 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
23.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
22.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
21.9%
Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+3
23.6%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
22.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
22.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 17 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
21.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+14
21.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 14 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
14.4%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 24 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3218% → 19%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
17.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 8 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
18.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Rahjai HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
17.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
18.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
14.0%
Jordan Houston run for 14 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:0284% → 84%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
16.5%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
16.5%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
16.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 10 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
15.8%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-1
14.8%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
15.0%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Timothy McKay) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
15.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
16.1%
Shane McDonough punt for 44 yds, fair catch by C.J. Johnson at the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 6:2216% → 31%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
16.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-2
16.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+9
15.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
15.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+27
15.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
17.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+12
16.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
17.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
17.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+16
16.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 16 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.8%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 1 yd for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18FUMBLE
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:0776% → 83%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.8%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
23.9%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 19 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Dylan McMahonSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
24.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+16
25.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 16 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
22.3%
Jordan Houston run for 8 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+9
21.2%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
20.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 24 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
20.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
20.0%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+9
20.7%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 9 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
19.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Julian Gray for 6 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jasiah ProvillonSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 0
OPP 2
+1
17.5%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the ECaro 1 Jordan Houston fumbled, forced by Myles Berry, recovered by ECaro Gerard StringerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0024% → 22%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
24.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
24.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 2Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
22.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+18
22.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 18 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4083% → 83%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+22
17.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 22 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.4%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
16.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:1921% → 21%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
20.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 6Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 6
-3
20.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 3Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+21
19.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 21 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
22.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 25 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
25.7%
Ahlers, Holton rush for 9 yards to the NCSTATE42, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Moorer, Parker) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 20
OWN 39
-2
21.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 22
OWN 37
+18
20.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 18 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
24.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Ryan JonesSimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
21.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2688% → 89%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
12.5%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-34
11.1%
Devin Leary pass intercepted Jireh Wilson return for 34 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:1427% → 51%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
27.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+13
27.6%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, Jaylen, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference 13 yards to the NCSTATE12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
27.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 5 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
27.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
51.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2267% → 63%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
33.4%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
34.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
36.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 3 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.5%
Shane McDonough punt for 40 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 4 yds to the ECaro 29 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (Demetrius Mauney) to the ECaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:1547% → 43%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
47.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+37
46.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 37 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
57.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-3
52.3%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
39.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
42.5%
Owen Daffer 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
8.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 22
-34.4
TD · Q4 2:58
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED)
+23.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:12
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the NCSt 25
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com