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TTU

Texas Tech 14 at NC State 27

NCSU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 ·
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense+1.4Pregame prior+18.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:13: Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 14 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:40: Donovan Smith pass intercepted for a TD Aydan White return for 84 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:50: Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 24 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +11.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:20: Thayer Thomas pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 38 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:46: Donovan Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +9.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13TTU made the numbers' call on 10 of 16
  1. Q1 14:08TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:59TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:14NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:14NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:39NCSU 4th & 12 at TTU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:06TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:56TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q1 2:29NCSU 4th & 17 at TTU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 15:00TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 14:52TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 13:18NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, up 6
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 11:54TTU 4th & 19 at TTU 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  13. Q2 11:54TTU 4th & 19 at TTU 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  14. Q2 4:40TTU 4th & 1 at NCSU 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−1.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q2 2:27TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 18, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  16. Q2 2:04NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 28, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 12:54NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  18. Q3 12:54NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  19. Q3 9:03TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  20. Q3 9:03TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  21. Q3 2:00NCSU 4th & 1 at TTU 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−2.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−3.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 14:56TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 35, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%
    average punt
  23. Q4 14:28TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 35, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%
    average punt
  24. Q4 13:00TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 39, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  25. Q4 9:01NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  26. Q4 8:38TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 40, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%
    average punt
  27. Q4 1:53NCSU 4th & 17 at TTU 49, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  28. Q4 1:53NCSU 4th & 17 at TTU 49, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  29. Q4 0:35NCSU 4th & 3 at TTU 46, up 13
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:13NCSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:40NCSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:50TTU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:20NCSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:46TTU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4926% → 26%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Trey ClevelandSimilar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
73.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
73.7%
Austin McNamara punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
73.7%
Austin McNamara punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2674% → 73%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
73.6%
Jordan Houston run for 16 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 10 yds to the NCSTATE 46 NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
73.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Julian Gray for 3 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
73.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
73.3%
Devin Leary run for no gain to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
73.0%
Shane McDonough punt for 40 yds , Drew Hocutt returns for no gain to the TexTc 13 Drew Hocutt fumbled, recovered by NCStSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
73.0%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 1 yds · 3:1174% → 73%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
73.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 2 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
73.4%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+2
73.2%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the TexTc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
73.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 8Similar
Q1 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
73.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the TexTc 7Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 0
OPP 7
-5
73.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 12Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
73.1%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
72.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 7:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
72.8%
Christopher Dunn 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2427% → 27%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
73.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 4 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
73.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 4 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
72.9%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
73.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
73.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0673% → 74%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
73.2%
Jordan Houston run for 14 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
73.4%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+15
73.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
73.5%
Devin Leary sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 17
OPP 30
-10
73.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 27
OPP 40
+3
72.8%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 24
OPP 37
+7
72.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 7 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 17
OPP 30
+47
73.6%
Christopher Dunn 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:0927% → 26%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
73.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 10 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
73.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 23Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 15
OWN 23
-5
73.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 18Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+12
73.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 12 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+2
73.7%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
73.8%
Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
73.8%
Austin McNamara punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3074% → 74%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.9%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
74.2%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
73.8%
Shane McDonough punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Drew Hocutt at the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0627% → 26%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
73.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 19Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-8
73.4%
Donovan Smith sacked by Isaiah Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 11Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 19
OWN 11
0
73.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Nehemiah Martinez ISimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
74.2%
Austin McNamara punt for 32 yds, downed at the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
74.2%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:2276% → 82%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
75.9%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 45Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+5
75.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 5 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+26
75.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
81.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 14 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10INT TD
15 plays · 58 yds · 5:0520% → 10%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
79.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 15Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+13
80.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 13 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
79.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
80.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+17
80.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 17 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.3%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
79.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+8
80.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 7
50
+13
79.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 13 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
79.3%
Donovan Smith sacked by C.J. Clark for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+1
79.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mason Tharp for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+10
79.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 10 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-84
89.6%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted for a TD Aydan White return for 84 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:069% → 8%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
91.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 8Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 8
0
91.4%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the TexTc 8Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+4
91.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 4 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+6
92.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 6 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
92.2%
Austin McNamara punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:1695% → 94%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-4
94.6%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 14
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
94.1%
Shane McDonough punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:559% → 21%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
91.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
91.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 7 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
91.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 9 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+16
91.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (16 Yards) to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
79.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 24 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:2083% → 83%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.0%
Julian Gray run for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
83.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 7 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4685% → 85%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.2%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
85.3%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
85.6%
Devin Leary sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
85.1%
Shane McDonough punt for 59 yds , Drew Hocutt returns for 6 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
85.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:2716% → 13%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
84.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+14
85.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mason Tharp for 14 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
85.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 9 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
84.7%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
85.2%
Donovan Smith sacked by C.J. Clark for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 38Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 18
OWN 38
0
86.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 18
OWN 38
+5
86.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 5 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
87.3%
Austin McNamara punt for 47 yds, downed at the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
87.3%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FUMBLE
16 plays · 89 yds · 7:2788% → 92%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
87.7%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 7 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
88.0%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+4
87.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ced Seabrough for 4 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
88.5%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 5 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+11
89.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
90.2%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+6
90.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+19
90.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 19 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
91.0%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
91.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+7
90.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 7 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
90.7%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
91.6%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+25
91.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 25 yds Demie Sumo-Karngbaye fumbled, recovered by TexTcSimilar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+25
91.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 25 yds Demie Sumo-Karngbaye fumbled, recovered by TexTcSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3211% → 10%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
89.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 13 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
88.0%
Donovan Smith sacked by Aydan White for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+10
89.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 10 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
89.1%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+3
90.0%
Similar
Q4 14:28
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+3
90.2%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
98.3%
Thayer Thomas pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 38 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:292% → 11%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 10 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Loic FouonjiSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.4%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+17
98.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 17 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
98.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mason Tharp for 11 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
98.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 8 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+14
98.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 14 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
98.2%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the NCSt 6 NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (3 Yards) to the NCSt 3Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 2
OPP 3
0
98.2%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the NCSt 3Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
88.8%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3395% → 95%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.7%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
95.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
95.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
95.3%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Shane McDonough punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexTc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:179% → 7%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
91.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
91.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
92.8%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted Jakeen Harris return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
14 plays · 1 yds · 6:4596% → 98%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
50
-15
95.9%
NC STATE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
95.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 7 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
96.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
96.5%
Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
96.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+10
97.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 10 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
97.4%
Demarcus Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+4
97.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 4 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-4
98.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Julian Gray for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 12
OPP 44
-5
98.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
98.2%
Shane McDonough punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Drew Hocutt at the TexTc 15Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
98.2%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:404% → 4%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
95.9%
Behren Morton run for 7 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+18
95.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 18 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
95.3%
Behren Morton run for 13 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.0%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
95.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 20
OWN 43
0
96.0%
Behren Morton pass intercepted Aydan White return for no gain to the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1899% → 99%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
98.7%
Demarcus Jones II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
98.7%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+1
98.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
98.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 67 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
98.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 18 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
98.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Brady Boyd for 11 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+38
98.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 38 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:50
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 24 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q2 4:40
Donovan Smith pass intercepted for a TD Aydan White return for 84 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q4 10:46
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com