Try the model
FLA

Florida 38 at Florida State 45

FSU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:05 · Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 52 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+14.2Home team on offense−3.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score differential−2.3Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:44: Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:21: Trey Benson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:35: Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK) — FLA win probability +11.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:41: Trevor Etienne run for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK) — FLA win probability +31.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:06: Trey Benson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +27.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:04FLA 4th & 2 at FSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27FSU 4th & 12 at FLA 36, tied
    Close callWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:35FSU 4th & 12 at FLA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:42FLA 4th & 10 at FSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−5.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:15FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:05FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:30FSU 4th & 2 at FLA 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−2.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:53FSU 4th & 10 at FLA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−7.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:51FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−3.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:20FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−3.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:50FLA 4th & 1 at FSU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−1.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−8.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:01FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−4.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:39FLA 4th & 12 at FSU 26, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:30FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:14FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:06FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:28FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:25FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:44FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:21FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:28FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:35FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:41FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:06FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:1578% → 78%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.1%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
77.9%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+29
77.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 29 yds Ontaria Wilson fumbled, forced by Shemar James, recovered by Fla Tre'Vez JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3022% → 23%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
77.6%
Anthony Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
77.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+6
77.4%
Anthony Richardson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
77.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:2478% → 79%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+45
77.6%
Trey Benson run for 45 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
78.5%
Trey Benson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
76.9%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 52 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:4277% → 76%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
77.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 16 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
77.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 13 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
77.3%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+10
77.3%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
77.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-2
77.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 36Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
76.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClain FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
76.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:1324% → 29%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
76.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 22 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
75.6%
Anthony Richardson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
75.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
75.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
74.7%
Jalen Kitna run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
74.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+5
74.6%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
74.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
70.6%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 12 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2672% → 76%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.8%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
71.5%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+25
71.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 25 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
71.8%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+15
71.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 15 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
76.0%
Jordan Travis run for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2726% → 28%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.8%
Ricky Pearsall run for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
73.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 12 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Greedy Vance) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
72.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
72.3%
Anthony Richardson pass intercepted Jarrian Jones return for no gain to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1075% → 73%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
75.2%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
74.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+15
74.0%
Travis, Jordan pass incomplete to Wilson, Johnny, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Marshall Jr., Jason) 15 yards to the FLORIDA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
75.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
75.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+17
74.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 17 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
75.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-3
75.2%
Jordan Travis sacked by Shemar James for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 19Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
74.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+37
72.8%
Ryan Fitzgerald 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0128% → 38%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
72.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
72.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-4
71.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Richard Gouraige) to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+32
72.1%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 32 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
62.4%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 43 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1364% → 74%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malik McClain) to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 3
OWN 32
+34
65.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 34 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
66.1%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
65.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 9 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+4
65.3%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
65.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Deuce SpannSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
65.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+10
63.6%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the Fla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.1%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 4:5031% → 38%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
68.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 16 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
67.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+13
66.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.6%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
65.8%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
66.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
64.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
63.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
64.0%
Anthony Richardson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
62.8%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
62.9%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
63.9%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Jordan PounceySimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
62.0%
Adam Mihalek 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2365% → 63%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
63.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
62.8%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5038% → 36%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
61.4%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Daejon ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
62.6%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Dante ZandersSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+52
63.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 52 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 5:0063% → 69%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.6%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
62.1%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+27
60.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 12 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Antwaun Powell-Ryland Jr.) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
50
+7
64.9%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
65.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
64.3%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
64.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Trey BensonSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
64.3%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+7
63.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Preston Daniel for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+4
63.4%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
66.6%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
66.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
64.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
68.9%
Ryan Fitzgerald 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5935% → 33%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.6%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Daejon ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.8%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.6%
Anthony Richardson sacked by Shyheim Brown and Derrick McLendon II for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
66.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:2168% → 85%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
68.2%
Trey Benson run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+44
70.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 44 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
72.5%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 13Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
72.5%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the Fla 13Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+12
70.8%
Jordan Travis run for 12 yds to the Fla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.4%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.9%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.8%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5020% → 18%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.3%
Anthony Richardson run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
80.2%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
81.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
81.6%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+8
82.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 45 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 8 yds to the Fla 30 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Markis Weston) to the Fla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:4085% → 94%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
85.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 31 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
86.9%
Travis, Jordan pass incomplete to Daniel, Preston, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Dean III, Trey) 7 yards to the FLORIDA6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:468% → 18%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
91.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 35 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
90.7%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
90.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+15
91.6%
Anthony Richardson run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
91.7%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-2
92.0%
Anthony Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+5
93.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jared Verse) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+6
92.9%
Anthony Richardson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+9
93.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
92.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Renardo Green) to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 0
OPP 2
+1
91.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.3%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Jonathan OdomSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
93.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 0
OPP 6
+4
93.0%
Richardson, Anthony pass incomplete to Pearsall, Ricky, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Brown, Shyheim) 4 yards to the FLORIDAST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2189% → 88%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
88.9%
Jordan Travis sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 19 Jordan Travis fumbled, forced by Antwaun Powell-Ryland Jr., recovered by FlaSt Jordan Travis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+13
88.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 1:0716% → 47%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
50
+5
83.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
84.0%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+45
52.8%
Trevor Etienne run for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2565% → 95%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
64.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-4
67.5%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+21
63.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 21 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
68.4%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
70.6%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+16
68.2%
Trey Benson run for 16 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
95.4%
Trey Benson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25DOWNS
19 plays · 49 yds · 3:219% → 9%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.9%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the Fla 34 FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (Dante Zanders) to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 11
OWN 24
+3
91.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
92.4%
Richardson, Anthony rush for 23 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Eguakun, Kingsley) 10 yards to the FLORIDA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
92.4%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+15
92.7%
Richardson, Anthony pass incomplete to Douglas, Caleb, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (McClellion, Jarques) 15 yards to the FLORIDA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
90.8%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 21 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
88.3%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
87.3%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Dante ZandersSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+6
88.5%
Anthony Richardson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
85.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Dante Zanders for 11 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
84.1%
Anthony Richardson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
84.4%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-5
87.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
89.9%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Jonathan OdomSimilar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 12
OPP 26
0
91.1%
Anthony Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:41
Trevor Etienne run for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)
-31.2
TD · Q4 4:06
Trey Benson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+27.2
TD · Q3 4:21
Trey Benson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com