Try the model
FLA

Florida 24 at Vanderbilt 31

VAN
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:35 · Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 31 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior−29.8Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:22: Wesley Schelling 0 Yd Fumble Return (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — VAN win probability +9.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:17: Anthony Richardson pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FLA win probability +7.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:23: Mike Wright pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 7 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +24.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:06: Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 28 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +15.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:03: Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 74 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FLA win probability +9.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:35VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:35FLA 4th & 7 at VAN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21FLA 4th & 8 at VAN 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:48VAN 4th & 4 at FLA 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:35FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:38FLA 4th & 6 at VAN 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:19FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00FLA 4th & 8 at VAN 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:28FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:30VAN 4th & 3 at FLA 49, up 16
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:59FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 12, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:38VAN 4th & 7 at FLA 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:13FLA 4th & 10 at VAN 16, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:46VAN 4th & 12 at FLA 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FLA made the numbers' call on 0 of 3
  1. Q2 11:04VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:22VAN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:17FLA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    57.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:23VAN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:06VAN Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:03FLA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:13FLA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    8.8%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2520% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.8%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
19.8%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
19.8%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:1480% → 77%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
20.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 3 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+18
20.4%
run for 18 yds to the Fla 13 fumbled, recovered by Fla Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 25
OWN 13
+27
20.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 27 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
20.4%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
20.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
20.4%
Ricky Pearsall run for 3 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+31
20.4%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 31 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
20.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the Vandy 11Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
20.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
20.4%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
22.6%
Adam Mihalek 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3FUMBLE
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:3323% → 25%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
22.6%
Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
22.7%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
22.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 5 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
22.8%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 38Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+17
22.8%
Patrick Smith run for 17 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
23.2%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
23.2%
Ray Davis run for 7 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
23.1%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+15
24.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 15 yds Will Sheppard fumbled, recovered by Fla Jaydon HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1375% → 75%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
24.6%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 14 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
24.2%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
24.2%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Thai Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
24.6%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Thai Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
25.4%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the Vandy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 6:3125% → 34%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
24.8%
Ray Davis run for 26 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
25.8%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 46Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
25.7%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+15
25.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Antwaun Powell-Ryland Jr.) to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
28.0%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
28.0%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+15
26.6%
Shotgun Wright,Mike sacked for loss of 11 yards to the Fla46 (Powell-Ryland Jr.,Antwaun) PENALTY Fla Face Mask (Powell-Ryland Jr.,Antwaun) 15 yards from Fla35 to Fla20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
28.0%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
28.0%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+6
27.4%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
28.0%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
28.0%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Fla 10Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
33.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 10 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 5:2067% → 65%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
33.4%
Bulovas,Joseph kickoff 65 yards to the Fla00 Etienne,Trevor return 25 yards to the Fla25 (Taylor,CJ) PENALTY Vany Offside offsetting Fla Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.9%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
32.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 9 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
32.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+14
31.2%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 14 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
31.0%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 10 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
30.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson Jr.,Montrell rush middle for 27 yards gain to the Vany04 (Richard,Ja'Dais), out of bounds PENALTY Fla Illegal Formation 5 yards from Vany31 to Vany36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+5
31.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
30.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+2
31.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
35.4%
Adam Mihalek 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0938% → 48%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
38.4%
Patrick Smith run for 7 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
39.6%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
38.8%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
48.0%
Wesley Schelling 0 Yd Fumble Return (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0352% → 48%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 15 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Kingsley Eguakun) to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
48.3%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 9 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
48.0%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Jonathan OdomSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
51.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:1951% → 55%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
51.0%
Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
51.1%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+9
54.6%
Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4348% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.2%
Anthony Richardson run for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
50.3%
Anthony Richardson run for 1 yd to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
51.8%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 12 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
50.2%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 15 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
49.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
50.8%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Chris McClellanSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+7
52.2%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 7 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+28
51.9%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 28 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
47.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
47.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.4%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
15 plays · 66 yds · 6:4945% → 74%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
44.7%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+2
44.0%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+10
42.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Mike pass incomplete short right to McGowan,Jayden PENALTY Fla Holding (Burney,Amari) 10 yards from Vany30 to Vany40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
46.4%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
47.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ray Davis for 9 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
48.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
47.7%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+12
46.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 12 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
49.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Mike pass complete short right to Sheppard,Will for 1 yard to the Fla33 (Dean III,Trey) PENALTY Fla Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Fla34 to Fla29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+9
49.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Ball for 9 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
49.1%
Mike Wright sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+15
48.9%
Ray Davis run for 15 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
49.1%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the Fla 7Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 7 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0029% → 26%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.8%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
71.0%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for no gain to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
73.6%
Anthony Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
88.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 28 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3815% → 13%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.9%
Anthony Richardson run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
84.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
85.2%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Jonathan OdomSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3090% → 92%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.1%
Patrick Smith run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
89.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 10 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
90.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 3 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
90.6%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
90.2%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
92.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
2 plays · 91 yds · 0:2710% → 20%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+17
89.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 17 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
79.8%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 74 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17INT
10 plays · 54 yds · 5:3181% → 90%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Mike pass complete short right to Bresnahan,Ben for 0 yards to the Vany25 (Miller,Ventrell; Johnson,Tre'Vez) PENALTY Fla Targeting (Miller,Ventrell) 15 yards from Vany25 to Vany40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
82.5%
Ray Davis run for 12 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
82.9%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
83.0%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 43Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+11
82.2%
Ray Davis run for 11 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
83.2%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
83.2%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+5
82.3%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.4%
Mike Wright pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3310% → 8%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
89.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 7 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 3
OWN 12
0
89.5%
Anthony Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
90.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
91.9%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Thai Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19FG
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2192% → 97%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
91.9%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 11Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+1
93.1%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+1
93.1%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
96.5%
Joseph Bulovas 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:202% → 9%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
97.8%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 18 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
97.5%
Anthony Richardson run for 15 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
97.4%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 26 yds to the Vandy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.0%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Jonathan OdomSimilar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
97.0%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Daejon ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
97.4%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Dante ZandersSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+16
90.9%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:2595% → 96%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.0%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
94.9%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+3
94.5%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
96.0%
Matt Hayball punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:467% → 11%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
93.1%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Thai Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
93.3%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+12
93.6%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 12 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
92.6%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Dante Zanders for 3 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+34
92.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 34 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
89.4%
Anthony Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
91.0%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 8 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
89.1%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Dante ZandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:23
Mike Wright pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 7 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q3 2:06
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 28 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+15.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com