2022 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2022 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadSCST aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreSCST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:39 · Dyson Roberts punt for 52 yds , Josh Vann returns for 30 yds to the SCSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:04: Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 12:04 — SCST win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: SCST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:51: Tyrece Nick 1 Yd Run (Gavyn Zimmerman Kick) — SCST win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SCST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:51: Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 10:51 — SC win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:17: Austin Stogner 15 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick) — SC win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:52: Christian Beal-Smith 1 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick) — SC win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 3SCST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 11:32SCST 4th & 8 at SCST 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 9:17SC 4th & 2 at SC 48, tiedClose callPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:51SCST 4th & 8 at SCST 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q1 1:46SCST 4th & 4 at SC 37, down 8Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.4%48% to convertField goal2.3%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call2.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:02SCST 4th & 1 at SCST 11, down 15Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:03SCST 4th & 10 at SCST 25, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q4 14:47SCST 4th & 12 at SCST 23, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:47SC 4th & 11 at SCST 35, up 29Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.127% to convertField goal99.9%45% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:48SCST 4th & 4 at SC 4, down 36Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%−<0.193% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:40SC 4th & 5 at SC 41, up 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:39SCST 4th & 20 at SCST 10, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SCST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:48SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick97.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:04SC Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:51SCST Touchdown, down 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.2%97% to makeGo for two3.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:17SC Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:52SC Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:31SC Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:46SC Touchdown, up 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1INT3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
SCSTDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:471% → 1%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.2%
Corey Fields pass complete to Alex James for 4 yds to the SCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1599% → 99%
SCSTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q1 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+3
98.9%
Corey Fields pass complete to Rakim White for 3 yds to the SCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5TD7 plays · 53 yds · 3:0399% → 99%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
98.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 11 yds to the SCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
98.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Nate Adkins for 2 yds to the SCSt 6Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
98.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 1 yd to the SCSt 5Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 5 yds for a TD, (T. Hemingway Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 2:561% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD12 plays · 95 yds · 4:4299% → 99%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+4
98.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 4 yds to the SCaro 7Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+4
98.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 4 yds to the SCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+54
98.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 54 yds to the SCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
98.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 6 yds to the SCSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+13
98.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 13 yds to the SCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 8INT10 plays · 34 yds · 3:482% → 2%
SCDrive 9INT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:3499% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:402% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11TD3 plays · 63 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
SCSTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 13TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:091% → 3%
SCDrive 14TD7 plays · 58 yds · 2:2697% → 99%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
97.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 1 yd to the SCSt 37Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+23
97.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 23 yds to the SCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
97.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 1 yd to the SCSt 15Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
99.2%
Austin Stogner 15 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q3 6:03
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
punt blocked by King-Demenian Ford blocked by King-Demenian Ford , Josh Vann returns for no gain to the SCSt 43 Josh Vann fumbled, recovered by SCSt Tyrone HicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 16INT3 plays · 4 yds · 1:211% → 1%
SCDrive 17TD9 plays · 73 yds · 3:5099% → 100%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+35
99.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 35 yds to the SCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
99.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 10 yds to the SCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
99.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 4 yds to the SCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
99.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 9 yds to the SCSt 9Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the SCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 14:47
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+29
99.9%
Dyson Roberts punt blocked by Debo Williams blocked by Debo WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19DOWNS8 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.9%
Luke Doty pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 9 yds to the SCSt 43Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+12
99.9%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 12 yds to the SCSt 34 MarShawn Lloyd fumbled, recovered by SCSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Luke Doty pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 3 yds to the SCSt 37Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Luke Doty pass complete to Juju McDowell for 1 yd to the SCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 20INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21TD1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 22FG12 plays · 71 yds · 3:430% → 0%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
99.9%
Tyrece Nick pass complete to Shaquan Davis for 24 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 4:40
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Kai Kroeger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richard Bailey at the SCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 24PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 2:010% → 0%
SCDrive 25TD2 plays · 32 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 9 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:51
Tyrece Nick 1 Yd Run (Gavyn Zimmerman Kick)
-2.2
TD · Q3 8:17
Austin Stogner 15 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Mitch Jeter Kick)
+2
TD · Q3 10:51
Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 10:51
+0.6