2022 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2022 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadEWU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreEWU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:27 · Adam Mihalek 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Alphonse Oywak
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 8:04: Seth Harrison 44 yd FG GOOD — EWU win probability +0.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:53: Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 75 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK) — FLA win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:22: Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK) — FLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:48: Ricky Pearsall run for 76 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK) — FLA win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:02: Anthony Richardson pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK) — FLA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3EWU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 15:00EWU 4th & 1 at FLA 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%70% to convertField goal2.8%−0.240% to makePunt2.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:04EWU 4th & 19 at FLA 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.211% to convertField goalTheir call4.2%64% to makePunt3.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:07EWU 4th & 1 at FLA 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%71% to convertField goal5.0%−0.279% to makePunt4.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 13:44EWU 4th & 7 at EWU 43, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 6:04EWU 4th & 9 at EWU 48, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 0:09EWU 4th & 2 at FLA 23, down 32Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%−0.157% to convertField goal1.2%70% to makePunt0.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 11:34EWU 4th & 7 at FLA 48, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 7:47FLA 4th & 2 at EWU 19, up 32Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%56% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−0.177% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:16EWU 4th & 21 at EWU 25, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 2:52EWU 4th & 14 at EWU 21, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:54FLA 4th & 2 at EWU 42, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.7%−0.230% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 0:37EWU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:27FLA 4th & 2 at EWU 29, up 42Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−0.158% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7EWU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:53FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:13FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:22FLA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:48FLA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:02FLA Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:25FLA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:53FLA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:35EWU Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:17EWU Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEWUDrive 1FG15 plays · 49 yds · 6:562% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.3%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Efton Chism III for 11 yds to the EWash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Micah rush left for 0 yards to the EWU36 (Cox Jr.,Brenton; Burney,Amari) PENALTY UF Offside (Boone,Justus) 5 yards from EWU36 to EWU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+14
98.3%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Jakobie James for 14 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
98.3%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Silas Perreiah for 6 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
98.3%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Nolan Ulm for 13 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 24
-5
98.3%
Gunner Talkington sacked by Amari Burney for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
97.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 75 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 3DOWNS12 plays · 57 yds · 4:462% → 3%
FLADrive 4TD5 plays · 82 yds · 1:5497% → 97%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+45
96.8%
Anthony Richardson run for 45 yds to the EWash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+27
97.0%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 27 yds to the EWash 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:203% → 3%
Q1 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
97.0%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Efton Chism III for 5 yds to the EWash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
96.9%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Tuna Altahir for no gain to the EWash 43Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
96.9%
Nick Kokich punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD10 plays · 89 yds · 4:2297% → 98%
Q2 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+20
96.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 20 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
96.8%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 19 yds to the EWash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+22
97.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 22 yds to the EWash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+14
96.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 14 yds to the EWash 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 3:112% → 3%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.6%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Justice Jackson for 3 yds to the EWash 17Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+19
97.6%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 19 yds to the EWash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
97.5%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 8 yds to the EWash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+6
97.6%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Justice Jackson for 6 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-5
97.5%
PENALTY EWU False Start (Ulm,Nolan) 5 yards from UF47 to EWU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+15
97.3%
Nick Kokich punt for 43 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 15 yds to the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD1 play · 76 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 9FUMBLE4 plays · 15 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
97.6%
Justice Jackson run for 2 yds to the EWash 40 Justice Jackson fumbled, recovered by Fla Chris McClellanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD4 plays · 40 yds · 1:4799% → 100%
EWUDrive 11DOWNS14 plays · 52 yds · 2:531% → 1%
FLADrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 3:181% → 0%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
99.5%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 13 yds to the EWash 39 for a 1ST down EASTERN WASH Penalty, Personal Foul (Wyatt Musser) to the EWash 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.5%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Blake Gobel for 15 yds to the EWash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
99.5%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Nolan Ulm for 5 yds to the EWash 46Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
99.6%
Nick Kokich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15FG7 plays · 73 yds · 3:47100% → 100%
EWUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q3 7:47
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-16
99.8%
Gunner Talkington sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 16 yards to the EWash 25 Gunner Talkington fumbled, recovered by EWash Luke Dahlgren , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 21
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Nick Kokich punt for 42 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 6 yds to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD2 plays · 71 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
EWUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q3 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Micah Smith for 1 yd to the EWash 26Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
PENALTY EWU False Start (King,Keshaun) 5 yards from EWU26 to EWU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
Nick Kokich punt for 41 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q3 1:54
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 1 yd to the EWash 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 20DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Anthony Stell Jr. for 6 yds to the EWash 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD7 plays · 50 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+15
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 15 yds to the EWash 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 20 yds to the EWash 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
99.9%
PENALTY UF False Start (Fraziars,Ja'Quavion) 5 yards from EWU04 to EWU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jordan Pouncey for 2 yds to the EWash 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 22TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
100.0%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Nolan Ulm for 23 yds to the EWash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
100.0%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Nolan Ulm for 1 yd to the EWash 49Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+8
100.0%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Aiden Nellor for 8 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
99.9%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Efton Chism III for 16 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Jakobie James for 28 yds for a TD, (Seth Harrison KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23MISSED FG10 plays · 46 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Kitna,Jalen pass incomplete short right to McDowell,Griffin broken up by Orange,Armani PENALTY EWU Pass Interference (Orange,Armani) 15 yards from UF25 to UF40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.9%
PENALTY UF Delay Of Game (Kitna,Jalen) 5 yards from UF40 to UF35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+20
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 20 yds to the EWash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Kitna,Jalen pass incomplete short right to Weston,Ja'Markis PENALTY EWU Offside (Davis,Caleb) 5 yards from EWU37 to EWU32. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 24TD9 plays · 71 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
99.9%
Kekoa Visperas pass complete to Isaiah Howard for 8 yds to the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · 57 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:48
Ricky Pearsall run for 76 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)
+1.4
FG · Q1 8:04
Seth Harrison 44 yd FG GOOD
-0.9
TD · Q2 9:22
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Mihalek KICK)
+0.9