2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUSF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:26 · Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 54 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 20 yds to the SFla 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:21: B. Battie run for 10 yds for a TD, (S. Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +3.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:10: Jalen Kimber 39 Yd Interception Return (Adam Mihalek Kick) — FLA win probability +3.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:27: G. Bohanon run for 6 yds for a TD, (X. Weaver pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — USF win probability +10.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 11:14: Michel Dukes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +2.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:05: T. Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD, (A. Mihalek KICK) — USF win probability +4.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:12FLA 4th & 5 at USF 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call91.2%84% to makePunt90.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:11USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:45USF 4th & 5 at FLA 5, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snapGo for it12.7%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call12.7%92% to makePunt10.8%−1.9average punt
- Q2 0:10USF 4th & 7 at FLA 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.337% to convertField goalTheir call8.1%51% to makePunt7.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 10:27FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 26, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snapGo for it65.3%−2.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.6%average punt
- Q3 8:35FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 26, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snapGo for it63.1%−2.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.6%average punt
- Q3 4:26USF 4th & 12 at FLA 45, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snapGo for it40.7%−2.123% to convertField goal40.0%−2.825% to makePuntTheir call42.8%average punt
- Q3 4:26FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 17, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snapGo for it55.9%−1.938% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.8%average punt
- Q3 2:35FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 17, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it53.0%−2.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q3 2:35USF 4th & 1 at FLA 42, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.1%70% to convertField goal39.0%−8.130% to makePunt40.6%−6.5average punt
- Q4 0:23USF 4th & 18 at FLA 31, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snapGo for it85.7%−2.013% to convertField goalTheir call87.7%54% to makePunt85.2%−2.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 1:21USF Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.3%97% to makeGo for two12.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:49FLA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:45FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.0%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:10FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.2%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:27USF Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick17.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call16.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSFDrive 1FUMBLE7 plays · 37 yds · 2:596% → 7%
FLADrive 2FG8 plays · 45 yds · 3:4493% → 92%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
93.1%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+20
93.1%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 20 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
93.1%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD15 plays · 81 yds · 6:468% → 12%
Q1 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+7
92.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 7 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-10
92.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bohanon,Gerry rush middle for 13 yards gain to the USF46 (Torrence II,Rashad; Helm,Avery), out of bounds PENALTY USF Holding (Hall,Dustyn) 10 yards from USF33 to USF23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+9
92.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the SFla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3289% → 90%
Q1 1:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-15
89.2%
PENALTY UFL UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Barber,Austin) 15 yards from UFL34 to UFL19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+14
88.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 14 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
88.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Antonio Grier) to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
88.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson Jr.,Montrell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UFL35 (Grier,Antonio) PENALTY USF Offside (Cheney Jr.,Rashad) 5 yards from UFL33 to UFL38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
88.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson Jr.,Montrell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UFL35 (Grier,Antonio) PENALTY USF Offside (Cheney Jr.,Rashad) 5 yards from UFL33 to UFL38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5FG12 plays · 70 yds · 4:0410% → 13%
Q2 14:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
89.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Brian Battie for 4 yds to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD14 plays · 88 yds · 6:0088% → 91%
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-10
88.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Etienne,Trevor rush left for 8 yards gain to the UFL36 (Grier,Antonio) PENALTY UFL Holding (Gouraige,Richard) 10 yards from UFL28 to UFL18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+33
88.0%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 33 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
88.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Anthony pass incomplete short left to Shorter,Justin PENALTY USF Pass Interference (Brown,Aamaris) 15 yards from USF39 to USF24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
89.2%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 3 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-4
89.2%
Anthony Richardson sacked by Mekhi LaPointe for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+8
88.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dwayne Boyles) to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7INT TD4 plays · 11 yds · 1:2910% → 7%
USFDrive 8FG19 plays · 43 yds · 3:007% → 9%
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-15
92.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bohanon,Gerry pass incomplete short right to Carter,Chris broken up by Johnson,Tre'Vez PENALTY USF Pass Interference (Carter,Chris) 15 yards from UFL42 to USF43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 22
OWN 43
+18
92.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 18 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+3
92.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Brian Battie for 3 yds to the Fla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · -1 yds · 0:1092% → 92%
FLADrive 10INT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5992% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD4 plays · 18 yds · 1:3411% → 21%
Q3 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.7%
G. Bohanon run for 6 yds for a TD, (X. Weaver pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 1:5269% → 65%
USFDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 4:0937% → 40%
FLADrive 14PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5161% → 56%
Q3 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-5
60.2%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Zipperer,Keon) 5 yards from UFL22 to UFL17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+20
58.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 54 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 20 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+20
55.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 54 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 20 yds to the SFla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD15 plays · 51 yds · 6:2148% → 63%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+14
46.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 14 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+13
44.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bohanon,Gerry rush middle for 0 yards to the UFL01 (Dexter Sr.,Gervon; Torrence II,Rashad) PENALTY UFL Offside (Marshall Jr.,Jason). NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16INT9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2452% → 54%
Q4 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
51.4%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 30 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
57.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+23
57.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 18 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Antonio Grier) to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:5963% → 66%
FLADrive 18TD4 plays · 28 yds · 1:4651% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19MISSED FG17 plays · 39 yds · 4:3776% → 96%
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+20
25.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Khafre Brown for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+7
19.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 7 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+14
2.8%
run for 14 yds to the Fla 33 fumbled, recovered by SFla Brian BattieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+90.5
TD · Q3 10:27
G. Bohanon run for 6 yds for a TD, (X. Weaver pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-10.9
TD · Q4 5:05
T. Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD, (A. Mihalek KICK)
-4.9