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UCF

UCF 29 at Florida 17

FLA
2021 · Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl · Dec 23, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:24 · Daniel Obarski 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior+9.4Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:36: Chris Howard 26 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +4.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:00: Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +23.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:57: Malik Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +16.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:04: Daniel Obarski 21 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +10.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:08: Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +23.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 11UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:16FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:12UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:26FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:18UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:37FLA 4th & 5 at UCF 27, tied
    Close callWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:12UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:25UCF 4th & 5 at FLA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:24FLA 4th & 8 at UCF 34, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:36FLA 4th & 9 at UCF 9, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:05UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:19FLA 4th & 5 at UCF 46, up 1
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:24UCF 4th & 14 at FLA 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:05FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−2.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:04UCF 4th & 4 at FLA 4, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−14.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:16FLA 4th & 19 at FLA 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−6.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:02FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 35, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−2.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:16UCF 4th & 4 at FLA 38, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    75.4%−2.9
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−2.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:57FLA 4th & 7 at UCF 27, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−9.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:41UCF 4th & 9 at FLA 16, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−5.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:18FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 22, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:20UCF 4th & 1 at FLA 13, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:22FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:29UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:00UCF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:57FLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:08UCF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4470% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jean Delance) to the Fla 20Similar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
70.4%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
70.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
70.3%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+13
70.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 13 yds to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:5830% → 30%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
70.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
70.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
70.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
70.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
70.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for no gain to the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3670% → 70%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
70.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
70.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
70.0%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
69.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 52 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for no gain to the UCF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0230% → 30%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
69.8%
Mikey Keene run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 15
OWN 19
-5
69.8%
UCF Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+5
69.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 5 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+4
69.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 4 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+7
69.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 46 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 7 yds to the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:3870% → 69%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
69.8%
Emory Jones sacked by Cam Goode for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 37Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+13
69.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
50
0
69.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
50
+18
69.8%
Malik Davis run for 18 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
70.1%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
70.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
69.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 5
OPP 27
0
69.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2131% → 31%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
68.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
68.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
69.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+17
69.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 17 yds to the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:4869% → 74%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
69.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
69.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
69.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+16
69.6%
Emory Jones run for 16 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
69.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
69.8%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+15
69.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 15 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
70.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jonathan Odom) to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+7
70.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Divaad Wilson) to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:4128% → 34%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
72.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+38
72.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 38 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
70.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
70.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-1
70.9%
Joey Gatewood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+9
71.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 9 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
69.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+2
69.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+10
70.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Fla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:5169% → 68%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+18
68.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 18 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
69.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 16 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
70.1%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
70.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Rick Wells) to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
69.1%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+7
68.3%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
68.3%
Chris Howard 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:5933% → 39%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
67.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+12
67.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
65.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
65.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 7 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+34
65.2%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 34 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
64.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 8Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
64.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
65.1%
Mikey Keene sacked by Ty'Ron Hopper for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+34
60.6%
Daniel Obarski 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:2563% → 69%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
63.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+16
63.5%
Emory Jones run for 16 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-7
65.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 3 yds to the 50 yard line FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Shorter) to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-1
63.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+20
61.2%
Emory Jones run for 20 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
64.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 18 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
65.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
65.3%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
65.3%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
68.6%
Chris Howard 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:2335% → 31%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
65.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-4
67.0%
Mikey Keene sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
68.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fenley Graham at the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:3768% → 69%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
68.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Tatum Bethune) to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
69.8%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
70.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
68.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Titus Mokiao-Atimalala at the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
67.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:2833% → 32%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
66.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 36 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
63.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+1
63.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 11
OPP 30
-3
64.6%
Ryan O'Keefe run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+51
68.1%
Daniel Obarski 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0768% → 66%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
67.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
67.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-2
66.7%
Emory Jones sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
65.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:5733% → 54%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
66.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+74
66.9%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 74 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
46.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ty'Ron Hopper) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 1:5350% → 67%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
50.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 20 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
51.2%
Malik Davis run for 32 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
55.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 8 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
55.1%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
54.9%
Trent Whittemore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
71.6%
Malik Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
67.3%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Quadric Bullard) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 4:2536% → 49%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
63.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gervon Dexter) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
62.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
62.7%
Keene, Mikey pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDA roughing passer (Cox Jr., Brenton) 15 yards to the FLORIDA25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
61.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
60.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+7
62.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 7 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
60.6%
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
60.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 5 yds to the Fla 6Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
61.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
59.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 8Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
59.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Fla 4Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
61.2%
Joey Gatewood pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
51.1%
Daniel Obarski 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:3455% → 51%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
55.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
55.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 5 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-15
54.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jacob Copeland) to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 19
OWN 19
0
51.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
50.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 35 yds, downed at the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
27.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4932% → 29%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
32.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
31.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
30.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
28.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:4571% → 78%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
29.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
28.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
28.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-1
26.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
26.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 6 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
25.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
24.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
22.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
21.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
20.2%
Parker Navarro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
21.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24MISSED FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:1222% → 20%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
22.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 20 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
24.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 30 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
27.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
26.7%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-2
25.1%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
20.4%
Chris Howard 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 5:1183% → 96%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
17.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+20
15.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
50
+4
12.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
11.8%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 5 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+24
11.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 24 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
10.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Fla 16Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+4
9.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-4
8.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 16Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
4.0%
Daniel Obarski 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:156% → 5%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
5.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
5.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
4.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
4.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:5597% → 98%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
3.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
2.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
2.4%
Amari Johnson run for 4 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+3
2.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
2.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
2.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:00
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-23.5
TD · Q3 1:08
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-23.4
TD · Q3 7:57
Malik Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com