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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:44 · Ralph Fawaz punt for 42 yds , Dedrick Parson returns for 7 yds to the Hawa 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:39: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Steven Fiso for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +15.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:36: Titus Swen run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +9.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 50 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +15.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 15:00: WYOMING Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Wyom 20 — WYO win probability +10.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:11: Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 30 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +12.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 6:02WYO 4th & 7 at HAW 36, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.3%37% to convertField goalTheir call76.2%−0.142% to makePunt76.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:51WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snapGo for it69.1%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.5%average punt
- Q2 10:44WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snapGo for it50.0%−0.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%average punt
- Q2 9:43HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 38, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it53.9%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.9%average punt
- Q2 7:35WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 7, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it43.4%−1.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%average punt
- Q2 5:22HAW 4th & 5 at WYO 8, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call62.1%90% to makePunt57.1%−5.0average punt
- Q3 11:27WYO 4th & 5 at HAW 45, down 24Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it22.2%41% to convertField goal18.3%−3.825% to makePuntTheir call21.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 9:32HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 12, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snapGo for it86.7%−1.038% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q3 8:09WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it12.4%−2.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%average punt
- Q4 10:24HAW 4th & 1 at WYO 42, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.6%70% to convertField goal88.6%−3.030% to makePunt89.3%−2.3average punt
- Q4 9:51WYO 4th & 3 at midfield, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.8%−0.9average punt
- Q4 4:29WYO 4th & 9 at HAW 44, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%32% to convertField goal1.1%−0.127% to makePunt1.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:21HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 49, up 24Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 12:06HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.2%97% to makeGo for two20.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:49HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.4%97% to makeGo for two28.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:39HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.4%97% to makeGo for two44.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:36WYO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.5%97% to makeGo for two37.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 0:00HAW Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.1%97% to makeGo for two70.8%−0.345% to convert
- Q3 1:11WYO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.6%97% to makeGo for two11.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:27HAW Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%−0.397% to makeGo for two98.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1TD19 plays · 75 yds · 15:0016% → 27%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
83.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 9 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
83.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 13 yds to the Wyom 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
83.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 15 yds to the Wyom 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
73.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 9 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Zion Bowens, broken up by Keyon BlankenbakerSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
73.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 13 yds to the Wyom 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
73.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 15 yds to the Wyom 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
73.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Cole GodboutSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2MISSED FG13 plays · 47 yds · 5:5982% → 79%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
82.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 5 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+14
82.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 14 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+8
82.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 8 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+12
82.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 12 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
82.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 3 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD8 plays · 64 yds · 2:1322% → 27%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
78.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 21 yds to the Wyom 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
78.1%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left incomplete intended for FISO, Steven thrown to the WYO0. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the WYO2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.5%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5875% → 72%
HAWDrive 5TD8 plays · 77 yds · 4:1228% → 48%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
71.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 12 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+28
68.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 28 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+19
52.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Steven Fiso for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5558% → 54%
HAWDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0152% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0852% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9FG5 plays · 32 yds · 2:1358% → 59%
WYODrive 10TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4645% → 53%
HAWDrive 11TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:3162% → 69%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 6 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
37.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 8 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+16
36.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+50
21.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 50 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3332% → 23%
HAWDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5582% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2317% → 14%
Q3 8:09
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
14.4%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Parson at the Hawa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15INT10 plays · 76 yds · 4:1191% → 95%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
9.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 10 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
8.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 8 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
8.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 19 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
6.4%
TURNER JR, Calvin pass to the right complete for 32 yards to PANOKE, Jonah caught at the WYO0 and advanced to the WYO0, TOUCHDOWN HAW, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY HAW Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the WYO32 to the WYO37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+10
6.1%
WYOMING Penalty, Defensive Holding (Azizi Hearn) to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD9 plays · 88 yds · 2:479% → 24%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
9.0%
Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 12 yds to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
9.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 9 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+30
23.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 30 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 38 yds · 5:4288% → 94%
WYODrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 0:339% → 9%
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
9.0%
Levi Williams pass complete to Treyton Welch for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19TD6 plays · 50 yds · 3:2495% → 99%
Q4 9:51
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-10
5.5%
PARSON, Dedrick rush to the left for no gain to the WYO45 (MUMA, Chad;JONES, Victor). PENALTY HAW Holding enforced 10 yards from the WYO45 to the HAW45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+22
5.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 22 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
0.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Steven Fiso for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 31 yds · 1:582% → 1%
Q4 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
1.5%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Treyton Welch for 9 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
1.5%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Treyton Welch for 14 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
1.6%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Titus Swen for 2 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0899% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22END OF GAME4 plays · 16 yds · 2:211% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 50 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q2 12:39
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Steven Fiso for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-15.5
TD · Q3 1:11
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 30 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
+12.7