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CSU

Colorado State 45 at Hawai'i 50

HAW
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:19 · Cayden Camper 36 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Home team on offense+16.0Pregame prior−4.8Score differential+6.6Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:00: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 93 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — HAW win probability +12.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:01: David Bailey run for 31 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +21.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:07: Dedrick Parson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +12.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:44: Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 62 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +15.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +17.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 9CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:52HAW 4th & 3 at CSU 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02HAW 4th & 20 at CSU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:57CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03HAW 4th & 3 at CSU 17, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:40CSU 4th & 12 at HAW 49, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:35CSU 4th & 11 at HAW 11, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:26CSU 4th & 14 at HAW 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:44HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 10, up 6
    Close callPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:53CSU 4th & 18 at HAW 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:00CSU 4th & 5 at HAW 48, down 12
    Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:43HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 41, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:19CSU 4th & 9 at HAW 17, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−8.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:17HAW 4th & 2 at CSU 24, up 26
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:25HAW 4th & 19 at CSU 44, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:48HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 28, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:48CSU 4th & 2 at HAW 47, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:09HAW 4th & 5 at CSU 40, up 12
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−1.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:33CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:35HAW Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:00HAW Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13HAW Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:09HAW Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:00CSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:53CSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:01CSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:07HAW Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:44CSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−1.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:27HAW Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:17CSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:0839% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
39.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 10 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
39.1%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 14 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
39.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
39.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 12 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
39.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 8 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-1
39.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
39.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
40.1%
Matthew Shipley 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1960% → 60%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.1%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
40.0%
David Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
39.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for 69 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:2540% → 40%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
39.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 9 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+22
40.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 7 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Tywan Francis) to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
40.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+20
40.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 20 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-12
40.3%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 12 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 22
OPP 28
0
40.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 22
OPP 28
+2
39.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 2 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+43
40.4%
Matthew Shipley 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
41.0%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+9
40.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
40.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
40.8%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+4
41.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 4 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+9
41.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds , Dedrick Parson returns for 9 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:3841% → 44%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
41.1%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
41.1%
Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
41.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 39 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
42.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 8 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
42.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Dae Dae HunterSimilar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-1
42.0%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 17Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
44.2%
Matthew Shipley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 2:2356% → 55%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
43.8%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
43.0%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
43.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 5 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
42.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 2
50
+3
42.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
42.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
42.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Dante Wright) to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+3
43.8%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
43.7%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
44.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
44.6%
Dae Dae Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 18Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
44.4%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 5 yds to the Hawa 23 Chevan Cordeiro fumbled, forced by Scott Patchan, recovered by ColSt Devin PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2558% → 58%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
42.4%
David Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+9
43.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+9
43.0%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
42.4%
David Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 12Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
42.8%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Hawa 11Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
43.6%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to David BaileySimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+30
41.8%
Cayden Camper 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:5443% → 53%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
43.2%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 2 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
43.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 7 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
41.6%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 2 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
41.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 24 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
43.4%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+19
43.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 19 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
44.0%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 2 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
44.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Zion Bowens, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
53.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
50.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+3
50.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 3 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+12
51.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 12 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
50.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+21
49.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 21 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-15
48.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trey McBride) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 25
OWN 40
+1
50.4%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 24
OWN 41
+10
50.9%
Todd Centeio run for 10 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
51.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, downed at the Hawa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
55.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr., broken up by Thomas PannunzioSimilar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
54.9%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 6Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+4
54.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 4 yds to the Hawa 10Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 4
OWN 10
+18
53.9%
Matthew Shipley punt for 46 yds , Dante Wright returns for 18 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:0749% → 42%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.6%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
50.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+2
52.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 2 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 18
OPP 46
0
56.6%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
57.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 39 yds, downed at the Hawa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD
2 plays · 93 yds · 0:3857% → 69%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
56.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for no gain to the Hawa 7Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+93
69.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 93 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
66.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 22 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
64.7%
Ty McCullouch run for 7 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-2
63.4%
David Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 48Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
64.5%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Ty McCullouch, broken up by Cortez DavisSimilar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
65.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
71.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 8 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
71.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
70.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 3 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
71.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
71.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Dedrick ParsonSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+10
70.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 10 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
71.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Zion BowensSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
70.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
69.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 54 yds, downed at the ColSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16INT TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:2230% → 23%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+28
70.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 28 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-40
76.8%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted for a TD Cameron Lockridge return for 40 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
77.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
79.5%
David Bailey run for 26 yds to the Hawa 49 David Bailey fumbled, forced by Darius Muasau, recovered by Hawa Justus TavaiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Tywan FrancisSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
86.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 11 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
86.4%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Cian Quiroga for a loss of 10 yards to the Hawa 32 Chevan Cordeiro fumbled, recovered by ColSt Manny Jones , return for 0 yards , return for 18 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5223% → 17%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
77.2%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
77.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Hawa 31Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+13
78.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 13 yds to the Hawa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
76.8%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the Hawa 15Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+4
76.8%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-6
78.0%
Todd Centeio sacked by Darius Muasau for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 17Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+36
83.0%
Cayden Camper 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1089% → 97%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
89.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Hekili Keliiliki for 15 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
89.5%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Kamuela Borden) to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+24
89.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 24 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
96.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 42 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.8%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted Khoury Bethley return for 5 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23MISSED FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3697% → 98%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr.Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-6
97.1%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+14
97.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Mardner for 14 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
97.6%
Matthew Shipley 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:172% → 10%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.5%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 27 Todd Centeio fumbled, forced by Darius Muasau, recovered by ColSt Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
98.4%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+12
98.5%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Quentin Frazier) to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.4%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+27
98.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 12 yds to the HAWAII 44 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala) to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
98.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 26 yds to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
89.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Toby McBride) to the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 1:2694% → 93%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for no gain to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
94.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 8 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
94.1%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-9
94.3%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 19
OPP 44
0
94.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Zion BowensSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 19
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 19
OPP 44
0
93.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 4:329% → 18%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
90.8%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBride, broken up by Hugh Nelson IISimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
90.9%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 12Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+17
91.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 17 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
90.4%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+33
90.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 33 yds to the Hawa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
89.7%
Todd Centeio sacked by Justus Tavai for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+13
91.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 13 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+7
91.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for 7 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
82.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for 24 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
87.6%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 3 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
87.4%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 5 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+1
87.1%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 1 yd to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Matthew Shipley punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
89.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 11 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
88.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 12 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.7%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
88.1%
Todd Centeio sacked by Darius Muasau for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 43 Todd Centeio fumbled, recovered by ColSt David Bailey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+10
89.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 10 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-8
88.2%
Todd Centeio sacked by Khoury Bethley for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
94.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 4 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
94.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Jonah PanokeSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+1
94.4%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 1 yd to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
93.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 30TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:557% → 30%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
93.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 40 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.8%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBride, broken up by Darius MuasauSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
91.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+31
70.5%
David Bailey run for 31 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 31TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:4883% → 98%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Cam'Ron CarterSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+37
82.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 37 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
86.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Zion Bowens for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
86.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+11
85.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 11 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
86.7%
Dedrick Parson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+2
86.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+12
85.7%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 2 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Toby McBride) to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
97.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 32TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:154% → 20%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.0%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Ty McCullouchSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+62
80.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 62 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 33TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 0:1491% → 98%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.7%
Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+37
98.0%
Dedrick Parson run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 34TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:103% → 21%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
97.5%
Todd Centeio sacked by Penei Pavihi for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+12
97.6%
Todd Centeio run for 12 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
97.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
97.3%
Todd Centeio run for 9 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
97.0%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+33
97.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 33 yds to the Hawa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
96.5%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Ty McCullouch, broken up by Cameron LockridgeSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
96.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 7 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
78.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 35END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0396% → 96%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 11
50
-3
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:01
David Bailey run for 31 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q4 0:17
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
-17.6
TD · Q4 2:44
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 62 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
-15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com