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TROY

Troy 10 at Georgia State 37

GAST
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:03 · Gunnar Watson pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior+19.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:52: Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 13 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +1.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:18: Darren Grainger pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 26 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +6.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:46: Noel Ruiz 43 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:34: Brooks Buce 48 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +2.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:30: Noel Ruiz 45 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +3.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:33TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:31GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:03TROY 4th & 4 at GAST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:09TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:37GAST 4th & 2 at TROY 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:14TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 2 at TROY 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:12TROY 4th & 2 at GAST 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−2.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:47GAST 4th & 18 at TROY 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:46GAST 4th & 7 at TROY 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:34TROY 4th & 14 at GAST 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:30GAST 4th & 13 at TROY 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−5.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:37TROY 4th & 28 at GAST 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:30GAST 4th & 5 at TROY 33, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:15TROY 4th & 1 at GAST 6, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:36GAST 4th & 8 at TROY 43, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00TROY 4th & 1 at GAST 24, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 7:52GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:18GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:15GAST Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:06TROY Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2729% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
70.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
70.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+3
70.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+4
70.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds , Quavian White returns for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0270% → 70%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
70.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-5
70.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Pat Bartlett) to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+4
70.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 4 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 40 yds, downed at the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2830% → 30%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
70.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
70.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+15
70.2%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for STOUDEMIRE, Deshon thrown to the GSU42. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on WHITE, Quavian enforced 15 yards to the GSU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.0%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
70.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
70.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
69.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:1170% → 72%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
70.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+15
70.3%
TROY Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Carlton Martial) to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
70.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+22
70.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 22 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
70.5%
Cornelius McCoy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+13
72.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 13 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4328% → 28%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
71.7%
TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (Deandre Butler) to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+9
72.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
72.5%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 50 yds , returns for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
70.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FUMBLE
14 plays · 53 yds · 1:1073% → 73%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
72.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 12 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
72.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
72.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+4
73.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+4
72.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
73.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+8
73.5%
Darren Grainger run for 8 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
73.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 10 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
73.5%
GREGG, Tucker rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the TRO6 (MARTIAL, Carlton). PENALTY GSU Holding on BASS, Johnathan enforced 10 yards from the TRO8 to the TRO18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+3
73.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 3 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
73.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
72.9%
Darren Grainger run for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 0:14
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
72.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 55 yds, downed at the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:4272% → 80%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
72.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
72.3%
Darren Grainger run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
72.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+13
73.4%
Darren Grainger run for 13 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
73.5%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
73.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 9 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-1
73.2%
Jamyest Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+3
72.6%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
73.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 5 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+26
80.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 26 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:0623% → 23%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
77.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
77.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 20 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
76.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
76.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+6
77.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
77.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:2584% → 82%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
83.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
83.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Roger Carter for 13 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
83.9%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
83.8%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-10
83.4%
QB Keeper GRAINGER, Darren rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the TRO38 (ROBERTSON, KJ). PENALTY GSU Holding on GLOVER, Travis enforced 10 yards from the TRO36 to the TRO46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
83.0%
Darren Grainger sacked by Carlton Martial for 0 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
82.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12INT
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:2421% → 22%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
78.8%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+39
79.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 39 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
77.2%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
77.6%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted return for no gain to the GeoSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:3784% → 90%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
83.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
84.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 8 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
84.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
84.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 8 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
84.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 15 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
84.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
84.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
89.9%
Noel Ruiz 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:1215% → 17%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
84.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
84.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 17 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
84.4%
VIDAL, Kimani rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the GSU45 (JONES, Jaylon), out of bounds. PENALTY GSU Offsides on TAYLOR, Jhi'Shawn enforced 5 yards from the TRO48 to the GSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+20
83.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kyran Griffin-Isom for 20 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-4
83.4%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
85.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+48
82.9%
Brooks Buce 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
85.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:3085% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
85.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
84.9%
Jamyest Williams run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
85.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+17
85.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 17 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.6%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
85.6%
Darren Grainger run for 12 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
85.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 5 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
85.7%
Darren Grainger sacked by Antonio Showers for 0 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 22
0
85.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+45
88.7%
Noel Ruiz 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17FUMBLE TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:5011% → 6%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
89.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 20 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
87.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
86.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jhi'Shawn Taylor for 0 yards to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+10
87.8%
WATSON, Gunnar pass up the middle incomplete intended for ROGERS, Marcus thrown to the GSU42. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on WHITE, Quavian enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the GSU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
86.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+11
86.3%
Gunnar Watson run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
85.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 8 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
94.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked for 0 yards (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:035% → 3%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
95.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 9 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
95.2%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
95.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 45 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
94.7%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jamil Muhammad for 0 yards to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
95.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
95.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jamil Muhammad for 0 yards to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 28
+45
96.7%
Brooks Buce 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:0798% → 100%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
97.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
97.6%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+15
97.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 15 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.8%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
97.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+16
97.7%
GRAINGER, Darren pass to the right incomplete intended for CARTER, Roger broken up by RANSAW, Caleb at the TRO42. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on RANSAW, Caleb enforced at the spot of the foul for 16 yards to the TRO37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
97.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
97.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
97.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+50
99.6%
Noel Ruiz 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.7%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for WHITTEMORE, Luke thrown to the GSU45. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on BROWN, Bryquice enforced 15 yards to the TRO42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete pass incomplete Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Thomas Gore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+22
99.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 22 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.7%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Tre Moore and Akeem Smith for 0 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 18
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted return for no gain to the GeoSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.8%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
99.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 3
50
+50
99.8%
Jamyest Williams run for 50 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:090% → 0%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+39
99.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 39 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.7%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
99.7%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
99.7%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.7%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+5
99.7%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
99.7%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+4
99.7%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-5
99.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Antoine Lane run for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+4
99.9%
Antoine Lane run for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 41 yds · 5:360% → 0%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+11
99.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 11 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:18
Darren Grainger pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 26 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)
+6.7
FG · Q2 2:46
Noel Ruiz 43 yd FG GOOD
+6
FG · Q3 11:30
Noel Ruiz 45 yd FG GOOD
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com