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ARST

Arkansas State 13 at South Alabama 31

USA
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:06 · Jake Bentley run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense+17.8Pregame prior+14.5Score differential+11.7Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:47: Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 30 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +3.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:10: Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 2 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +7.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:21: Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 14 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:06: Diego Guajardo kickoff for 65 yds , Alan Lamar return for 100 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +3.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 10:05: Blake Grupe 32 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +1.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:48ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:47ARST 4th & 2 at USA 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:49ARST 4th & 1 at USA 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−4.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00USA 4th & 1 at ARST 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−2.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:21USA 4th & 3 at ARST 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−0.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−6.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10ARST 4th & 26 at ARST 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:06USA 4th & 6 at ARST 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:50ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05ARST 4th & 12 at USA 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:05USA 4th & 12 at USA 24, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:29USA 4th & 16 at USA 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:40USA 4th & 11 at USA 26, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:33ARST 4th & 13 at USA 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:45USA 4th & 13 at USA 43, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:22ARST 4th & 16 at USA 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:06USA 4th & 4 at ARST 21, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:48USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:47USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:10USA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:21USA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:1274% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
73.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 6 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+7
73.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 7 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
73.7%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+12
73.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 12 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
73.7%
Avery, Terrion rush for 5 yards to the ASU44 (Bennett, Kivon), PENALTY USA holding (Sefcik, Lincoln) 10 yards to the USA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+17
73.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 17 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
73.7%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
73.7%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY ASU pass interference ( Doss, Taylon) 15 yards to the ASU22, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
73.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 9 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
74.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 13 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
74.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+15
74.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 15 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-2
74.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Alan Lamar for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
74.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2474% → 79%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
74.5%
Terrion Avery run for 12 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
74.8%
Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
74.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
74.9%
Jake Bentley sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 13
50
+6
74.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+14
74.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 14 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
78.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 30 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:5823% → 22%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.7%
Alan Lamar run for no gain to the SAlab 47Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
76.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 8 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
76.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+15
76.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 15 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
76.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+15
76.2%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Hunt, Te'Vaila (Young, Tre), PENALTY USA pass interference (Luter, Darrell) 15 yards to the USA7, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
76.2%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the SAlab 6Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
76.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the SAlab 5Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
76.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 4 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD
20 plays · 99 yds · 8:3180% → 92%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
79.9%
Terrion Avery run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+8
80.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+11
80.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 11 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 6 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
80.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 8 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
81.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 14 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
81.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
81.7%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
81.4%
Terrion Avery run for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
81.0%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
81.6%
Terrion Avery run for 25 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
81.7%
Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
81.7%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+3
81.5%
Kareem Walker run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+5
83.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 5 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.1%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 2 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Johnnie Lang Jr., broken up by Yam BanksSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
89.7%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-16
89.8%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Chris Henderson for a loss of 16 yards to the ArkSt 12 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Layne Hatcher) to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 26
OWN 12
0
89.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:4193% → 96%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+47
92.6%
Bryan Hill run for 47 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
96.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 14 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.8%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
92.7%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
92.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 21 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive holding (John Mincey) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
93.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+11
93.0%
Terrion Avery run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.0%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Leon JonesSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
93.0%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+1
92.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+5
92.5%
Jake Bentley run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:418% → 7%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
92.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Charles Coleman III for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 20
OWN 19
0
92.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln Pare, broken up by Charles Coleman IIISimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 20
OWN 19
+10
92.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
92.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds, downed at the SAlab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
94.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+8
94.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
50
-9
94.5%
Jake Bentley sacked by Kivon Bennett and Vidal Scott for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 19
OWN 41
-2
94.3%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 4:557% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
92.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
92.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+12
92.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 12 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
92.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 2 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+16
92.4%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 16 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.7%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for no gain to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
92.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+14
92.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 14 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
91.8%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the SAlab 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-3
91.8%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 14
0
92.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+32
91.0%
Blake Grupe 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
93.3%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
93.2%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-4
93.0%
Jake Bentley sacked by Thurman Geathers and Jaden Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
92.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 45 yds, downed at the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
91.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+7
91.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 7 yds Te'Vailance Hunt fumbled, forced by A.J. DeShazor Jr., recovered by SAlab A.J. DeShazor Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
94.3%
Caullin Lacy run for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+1
94.0%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
93.8%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 16
OWN 49
+2
93.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 31 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
93.1%
Layne Hatcher run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
92.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
92.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
92.6%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Darrell Luter Jr. return for no gain to the SAlab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
94.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for no gain to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
94.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen Wayne, broken up by Detravion GreenSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-1
94.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 26 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+5
94.0%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
93.6%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+13
93.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jack Combs for 13 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
93.5%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-5
93.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Jack Combs) to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-1
93.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
93.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
93.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1396% → 96%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
95.5%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
95.4%
Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
96.2%
Jake Bentley run for 8 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
96.3%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Kenneth Harris return for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
95.7%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
95.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+20
95.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 20 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
95.3%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Foreman, Jeff for 34 yards to the USA14, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU holding ( Stevenson, Emm) 10 yards to the ASU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
95.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Emmanuel StevensonSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 20
OWN 42
0
95.7%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Devin Rockette return for no gain to the SAlab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
97.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 10 yds to the SOUTHALA 44 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen Wayne) to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 13
OWN 43
-10
97.2%
Avery, Terrion rush for 1 yard to the USA44 ( Harris, Jaden), PENALTY USA holding (Foster, Kent) 10 yards to the USA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 23
OWN 33
+3
97.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 3 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 20
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Lincoln Sefcik, broken up by Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 20
OWN 36
+7
97.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Kareem Walker for 7 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
96.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 4:303% → 4%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
96.7%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+28
96.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 28 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
96.4%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
96.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+12
96.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jack Combs for 12 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.4%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Combs, Jack for 2 yards to the USA44 (Wilfawn,Quentin), PENALTY USA offside (Henderson,Chris) 5 yards to the USA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 5
OPP 41
0
96.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Kwameh LewisSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
96.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 6 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
96.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
95.8%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 3 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
95.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-9
96.1%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Ke'Shun Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+43
95.9%
Blake Grupe 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1697% → 98%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
50
+23
97.0%
Terrion Avery run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
97.1%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
97.1%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
97.0%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
98.4%
Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24INT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
98.1%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Charles Coleman III and Quentin Wilfawn for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 17
OWN 32
0
98.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Alan LamarSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 17
OWN 32
-10
98.3%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Darrell Luter Jr. return for 10 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
98.7%
Kareem Walker run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+5
98.7%
Kareem Walker run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
98.7%
Kareem Walker run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 3
OPP 17
-3
98.7%
Desmond Trotter run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+4
98.7%
Kareem Walker run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:10
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 2 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q1 5:47
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 30 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q2 6:21
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 14 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com