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ARST

Arkansas State 33 at Georgia Southern 59

GASO
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:00 · Anthony Beck II punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+31.9Score differential+20.3Blowout margin+11.2Garbage-time factor+12.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Pregame prior+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:41: Gerald Green run for 23 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +8.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:38: James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 19 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +11.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:32: Logan Wright run for 41 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +10.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:00: J.D. King run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +12.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:54: Justin Tomlin run for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +13.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:28ARST 4th & 19 at GASO 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:55ARST 4th & 4 at GASO 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:28GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:25ARST 4th & 10 at GASO 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:03GASO 4th & 2 at ARST 8, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:41GASO 4th & 21 at GASO 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37ARST 4th & 8 at GASO 35, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:09ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 31, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−3.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:45GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 28, up 19
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:55ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 17, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:00GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 41, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:17ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 22, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:16GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 27, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:14ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 32, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:09GASO 4th & 4 at ARST 48, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:49GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 29, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:13ARST 4th & 10 at GASO 22, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 13:21ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:41GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:38ARST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:32GASO Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:00GASO Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:54GASO Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:08GASO Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:47GASO Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:59ARST Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:13ARST Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:03GASO Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 4:2747% → 46%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+13
53.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 13 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
53.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
53.4%
Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
53.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+10
53.4%
PENALTY GAS Personal Foul (Wilson,Anthony) 10 yards from GAS21 to GAS11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
53.4%
Alan Lamar run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
53.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 14
OPP 15
-5
53.4%
James Blackman sacked by Justin Ellis for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 19
OPP 20
+37
53.8%
Blake Grupe 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0347% → 47%
Q1 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+2
53.4%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 30
OWN 40
+5
53.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 25
OWN 45
+13
53.4%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+8
53.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5654% → 54%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.5%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
53.5%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
53.4%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
53.3%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
53.6%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
54.0%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
53.8%
Khaleb Hood run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
54.1%
Logan Wright run for 59 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Blake Grupe) declined, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:0747% → 43%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+49
53.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 49 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
52.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 3 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
52.4%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-15
52.8%
Blackman,James pass incomplete to Tyler,Reed PENALTY ASU Personal Foul (Luebke,Wyatt) 15 yards from GAS10 to GAS25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+11
53.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Alan Lamar for 11 yds to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
57.0%
Blake Grupe 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:2257% → 61%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.8%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+54
56.9%
Logan Wright run for 54 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
58.3%
J.D. King run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
58.3%
Justin Tomlin run for no gain to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
57.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Beau JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
61.0%
Alex Raynor 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4240% → 48%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
59.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+28
60.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 28 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
58.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+12
58.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 12 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
58.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 18 yds to the GeoSo 4 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Personal Foul (AJ Watkins) to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:3256% → 66%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
56.2%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
56.3%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
55.7%
J.D. King run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
56.8%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 18 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
57.9%
Logan Wright run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.3%
Logan Wright run for no gain to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
58.3%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
57.5%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 11 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
65.9%
Gerald Green run for 23 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1237% → 38%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.5%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
62.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
61.5%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+19
61.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 4 yds to the GASOUTHERN 49 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Ellis) to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
60.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
61.6%
James Blackman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:4866% → 61%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
65.6%
PENALTY GAS Illegal Substitution 5 yards from GAS13 to GAS08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+6
65.5%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 21
OWN 2
0
65.3%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb Hood pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 21
OWN 2
0
64.7%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 21
OWN 2
0
61.1%
Anthony Beck II punt blocked by Kivon Bennett, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 0 for a SAFETY blocked by Kivon Bennett for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:5639% → 52%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
61.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Alan Lamar for 4 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+15
60.7%
Blackman,James pass incomplete to Hunt,Te'Vailance PENALTY GAS Pass Interference (Robertson,Seth) 15 yards from GAS49 to GAS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
59.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 1 yd to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+16
59.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 16 yds to the GeoSo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
48.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 19 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0654% → 66%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
53.7%
Logan Wright run for 24 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
56.4%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
56.0%
Justin Tomlin run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
66.2%
Logan Wright run for 41 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:2436% → 39%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
63.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 19 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
61.4%
James Blackman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:0167% → 80%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
67.2%
Khaleb Hood run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+18
67.2%
J.D. King run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Samy Johnson) to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.6%
J.D. King run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:1724% → 23%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
75.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 11 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
75.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 16 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
74.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Dahu Green for 16 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
73.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 7 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-5
72.5%
James Blackman sacked by Justin Ellis for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
74.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
76.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3779% → 80%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
79.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 18
OWN 27
+5
79.5%
Jalen White run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0678% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
77.5%
Logan Wright run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
78.4%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
78.5%
Justin Tomlin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+10
78.4%
Jalen White run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
78.6%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+34
78.6%
J.D. King run for 34 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.6%
Justin Tomlin run for no gain to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.6%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Beau JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.7%
Justin Tomlin run for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4512% → 10%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
87.2%
James Blackman sacked by Dillon Springer for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
88.0%
Blackman,James pass incomplete to Rucker,Corey PENALTY GAS Roughing The Passer (Watkins,AJ) 15 yards from ASU24 to ASU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
87.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-7
87.8%
James Blackman sacked by C.J. Wright for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
89.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2493% → 93%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
92.9%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+3
92.8%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
92.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 60 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for no gain to the ArkSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19INT TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:379% → 1%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
90.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Dahu Green for 9 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+3
90.1%
Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
90.5%
James Blackman sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 14
OWN 20
-22
98.9%
Quin Williams 22 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.7%
Raynor,Alex kick attempt failed (blocked) (blocked by Jones,Leon) PENALTY ASU Offside (Jones,Leon) 2 yards from ASU03 to ASU01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:051% → 1%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-10
99.0%
James Blackman sacked by Andrew Johnson Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
99.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.9%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
99.0%
PENALTY ASU Offside (Scott,Vidal) 5 yards from GAS42 to GAS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
98.9%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Jalen WhiteSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
99.1%
Anthony Beck II punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:431% → 0%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
99.5%
Blackman,James pass incomplete to Jones,Adam broken up by Robertson,Seth PENALTY GAS Pass Interference (Robertson,Seth) 8 yards from ASU14 to ASU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
99.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Adam JonesSimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
99.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (Blake Grupe) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:1399% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.3%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+59
99.7%
Jalen White run for 59 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:480% → 0%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jack Combs for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.7%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jack CombsSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+36
99.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jack Combs for 36 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
99.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 18 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
99.7%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Still,Jacob) 5 yards from GAS11 to GAS16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
99.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4399% → 100%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.4%
Jalen White run for no gain to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.4%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Anthony Beck II punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:030% → 5%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Khyheem WaleedSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+55
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 42 yds to the GASOUTHERN 26 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Anthony Wilson) to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
99.6%
Jalen White run for 47 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Khyheem WaleedSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Khyheem Waleed for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
99.7%
Jalen White run for 20 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.7%
Jalen White run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
99.7%
Jalen White run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
99.7%
Jalen White run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Anthony Beck II punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30INT
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 13 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
99.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+13
99.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
Cam Ransom run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
AJ Brown run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Cam Ransom run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32DOWNS
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:360% → 0%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+40
99.9%
Layne Hatcher run for 40 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ross PainterSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Khyheem WaleedSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jack CombsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Jalen White run for no gain to the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:54
Justin Tomlin run for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q2 2:00
J.D. King run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 4:38
James Blackman pass complete to Corey Rucker for 19 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com