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NCSU

NC State 33 at Boston College 7

BC
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFUMBLETDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:23 · Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Home team on offense−33.3Score differential−20.5Garbage-time factor−11.7Pregame prior−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:47: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Trae Barry for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +2.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 12:03: Grant Carlson run for a loss of 8 yards fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devan Boykin for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:05: Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:23: Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 79 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:06NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:37BC 4th & 15 at NCSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:31NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:06BC 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:46NCSU 4th & 24 at NCSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:05BC 4th & 3 at NCSU 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50NCSU 4th & 1 at BC 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−2.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00NCSU 4th & 9 at BC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:03BC 4th & 4 at BC 42, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:21BC 4th & 2 at BC 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:23BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:16BC 4th & 10 at midfield, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:10NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 28, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:25BC 4th & 10 at BC 39, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:44NCSU 4th & 9 at BC 47, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:58BC 4th & 4 at NCSU 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:44NCSU 4th & 9 at BC 39, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:44NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:47BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:05NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:23NCSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1656% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
43.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on WOODBEY, Jaiden enforced (Jaiden Woodbey) to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
43.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 12 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
43.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
43.9%
Devin Leary sacked by Marcus Valdez for 0 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+40
43.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 40 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5744% → 46%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to CJ Lewis for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+27
43.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 27 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
43.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 8 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-1
44.0%
Dennis Grosel run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 28 fumbled, recovered by BC Dennis Grosel for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
44.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 3 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+18
44.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 18 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
44.0%
Pat Garwo III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
44.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
46.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Trae Barry for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4155% → 54%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
45.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
45.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
46.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 65 yds , Travis Levy returns for 4 yds to the BC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:2946% → 47%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
45.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 21 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.0%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 33Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
45.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-5
45.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 28Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+18
45.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 18 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.6%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
46.4%
Alec Sinkfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 45Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+15
45.9%
GROSEL, Dennis pass to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Jaden thrown to the NCS24. PENALTY NCS Pass Interference on PITTS, Derrek enforced 15 yards to the NCS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
46.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+2
46.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Spencer Witter for 2 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+3
46.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 3 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
46.5%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Levi Jones for 0 yards to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
46.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 44 yds, downed at the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0653% → 52%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
46.6%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Moore) to the NCSt 0Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
46.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 2Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
46.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+1
47.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 1 yd to the NCSt 5Similar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
48.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 46 yds, downed at the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5449% → 48%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
49.4%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
49.1%
Alec Sinkfield run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
50
0
48.4%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 9
50
0
47.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:2053% → 51%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
47.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 17 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
46.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
46.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+13
46.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 13 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
46.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete pass complete to Devin Carter for 9 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-15
46.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 24
OWN 41
0
47.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 24
OWN 41
0
49.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 46 yds, downed at the BC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:4150% → 53%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+22
49.7%
Alec Sinkfield run for 22 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
50.2%
Alec Sinkfield run for 16 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
51.9%
Alec Sinkfield run for 1 yd to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
53.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+10
53.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 10 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
53.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
53.7%
GROSEL, Dennis pass up the middle incomplete intended for LEWIS, CJ broken up by BOYKIN, Devan at the NCS24. PENALTY NCS Roughing the Passer on JOSEPH, Daniel enforced 15 yards from the NCS36 to the NCS21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
54.6%
Alec Sinkfield run for 4 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
54.6%
Alec Sinkfield run for 3 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
53.6%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
53.0%
Connor Lytton 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9FG
19 plays · 70 yds · 6:0552% → 59%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
48.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
48.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
49.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 11 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
47.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 16 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
46.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 4 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
45.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
45.4%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
45.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+7
44.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 7 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+6
45.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
42.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+9
42.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 9 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
42.8%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
42.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+1
44.3%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the BC 10Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
41.5%
Christopher Dunn 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:5745% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
45.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
43.6%
GROSEL, Dennis pass to the right incomplete intended for GILL, Jaelen thrown to the BOS40; QB hurried by JOSEPH, Daniel. PENALTY NCS Holding on PITTS, Derrek enforced 10 yards from the BOS26 to the BOS36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
46.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the BC 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-1
45.8%
Pat Garwo III run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
44.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
29.8%
Grant Carlson run for a loss of 8 yards fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devan Boykin for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11INT
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:1130% → 31%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
30.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Joey Luchetti for 30 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
32.8%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
32.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
31.3%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted return for no gain to the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:4772% → 86%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
28.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
28.4%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the BC 48Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+24
28.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 24 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
27.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
27.9%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+17
28.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 17 yds to the BC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4417% → 16%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Joey Luchetti for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
17.4%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
17.5%
Travis Levy run for no gain to the BC 33Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
16.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 46 yds, downed at the NCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+79
4.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 79 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
4.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 3:075% → 3%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to CJ Lewis for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
5.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 4 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
5.5%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
5.5%
Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
5.5%
Dennis Grosel run for 8 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
5.8%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the BC 45Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
5.7%
Travis Levy run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
5.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay Of Game (Terrell Dawkins) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
50
0
5.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
50
0
5.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 10
50
0
5.6%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 10
50
0
4.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
3.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Ricky Person Jr.) to the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0697% → 97%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
3.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+5
3.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+8
3.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
3.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 52 yds, downed at the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:453% → 3%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
3.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 19 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
3.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 4 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
3.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
3.3%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Ibrahim Kante for 0 yards to the BC 39Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+9
2.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Taji Johnson for 9 yds to the BC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:4198% → 98%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
2.3%
Thayer Thomas run for 1 yd to the BC 47Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-10
2.3%
KNIGHT, Zonovan rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the BOS41 (ARNOLD, Kam), out of bounds. PENALTY NCS Illegal Block in the Back on EKWONU, Ikem enforced 10 yards from the BOS47 to the NCS43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+2
2.4%
Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+8
2.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
1.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:462% → 1%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
2.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for no gain to the BC 17Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+18
2.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 18 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.2%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Levi Jones and Cory Durden for 0 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+10
2.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 10 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
2.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Trae Barry for 6 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
2.4%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
2.4%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
2.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
1.4%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:1499% → 99%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
1.3%
Jordan Houston run for 12 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
1.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
1.3%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the BC 44Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+5
0.6%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
0.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, downed at the BC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
0.2%
Peter Stehr run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
0.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 7
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
0.2%
Ben Finley run for 6 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
0.2%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.2%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
0.1%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:05
Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-14.7
FUMBLE · Q3 12:03
Grant Carlson run for a loss of 8 yards fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devan Boykin for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q3 4:23
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 79 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com