2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSCST aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSCST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:23 · Dyson Roberts punt for 41 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the Clem 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Clem Jack McCall
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:20: Will Shipley run for 7 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:21: Kobe Pace run for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:21: D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 11 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:43: D.J. Uiagalelei run for 5 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:19: Dyson Roberts 27 yd FG GOOD — SCST win probability +0.2 pts (now 0%) (top driver: SCST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SCST made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
- Q1 10:09SCST 4th & 11 at SCST 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 5:34SCST 4th & 17 at SCST 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 2:27SCST 4th & 8 at SCST 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 14:45SCST 4th & 6 at SCST 43, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 13:26CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 6, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q2 9:05SCST 4th & 14 at CLEM 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.119% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 3:10SCST 4th & 7 at CLEM 49, down 35Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:19SCST 4th & 5 at CLEM 10, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call0.4%88% to makePunt0.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 13:23SCST 4th & 4 at SCST 31, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 7:23SCST 4th & 13 at SCST 22, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:12SCST 4th & 10 at CLEM 26, down 46Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.129% to convertField goal0.1%64% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 13:19SCST 4th & 4 at CLEM 4, down 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%40% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.193% to makePunt-0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:17SCST 4th & 5 at SCST 45, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 8:36CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 17, up 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:21SCST 4th & 10 at CLEM 40, down 46Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%30% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:21CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 41, up 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 1:06SCST 4th & 6 at SCST 25, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:38CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:20CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:21CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:21CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:43CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:39CLEM Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:52CLEM Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD10 plays · 72 yds · 3:11100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:241% → 1%
CLEMDrive 3TD9 plays · 67 yds · 2:4499% → 99%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
Uiagalelei, D.J. rush for loss of 1 yard to the CLEMSON32, PENALTY SOCARST offside (Wilcox, Nathaniel) 5 yards to the CLEMSON38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 5
OWN 38
+2
99.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 2 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+36
99.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 36 yds to the SCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.4%
Pace, Kobe rush for 2 yards to the SOCARST22, PENALTY SOCARST offside 5 yards to the SOCARST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
99.4%
Will Taylor run for 12 yds to the SCSt 7 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (Joseph Ngata) to the SCSt 17Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+8
99.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Ajou Ajou for 8 yds to the SCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q1 5:34
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Dyson Roberts punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD8 plays · 56 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
99.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Ajou Ajou for 8 yds to the SCSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q1 2:27
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+51
99.4%
Dyson Roberts punt for 40 yds , Will Taylor returns for 51 yds to the SCSt 16 S CAROLINA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the SCSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD1 play · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 11 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 6 yds to the SCSt 31Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.6%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Hezekiah Massey for 8 yds to the SCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.7%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 4 yds to the SCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q2 13:26
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
99.6%
Will Spiers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Richard Bailey at the SCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 10INT2 plays · 17 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-22
99.7%
Corey Fields Jr. pass intercepted R.J. Mickens return for 37 yds to the SCSt 44 S CAROLINA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tison Gray) to the SCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass intercepted Decobie Durant return for no gain to the SCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q2 11:10
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+32
99.6%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Will Vereen for 32 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD7 plays · 84 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 3:260% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FUMBLE6 plays · 16 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 6 yds to the Clem 26Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Michel Dukes for 3 yds Michel Dukes fumbled, forced by Chad Gilchrist, recovered by SCSt Shaeem HaltiwangerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 16FG7 plays · 26 yds · 1:400% → 0%
CLEMDrive 17DOWNS3 plays · 15 yds · 0:05100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · 6 yds · 1:320% → 0%
CLEMDrive 19TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 7 yds Joseph Ngata fumbled, forced by Bj Davis, recovered by Clem Joseph NgataSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
99.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 22 yds to the SCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 4 yds to the SCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 20FUMBLE6 plays · -3 yds · 2:120% → 0%
Q3 7:23
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Dyson Roberts punt for 41 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the Clem 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Clem Jack McCallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD10 plays · 63 yds · 3:27100% → 100%
Q3 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Will Swinney for 5 yds to the Clem 46Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Beaux Collins for 9 yds to the SCSt 42Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Beaux Collins for 23 yds to the SCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Dacari Collins for 6 yds to the SCSt 10Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-4
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Will Swinney for 6 yds to the SCSt 4 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Beaux Collins) to the SCSt 14Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 14 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 22DOWNS14 plays · 71 yds · 5:290% → 0%
CLEMDrive 23INT2 plays · 12 yds · 0:20100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
100.0%
Anthony, Donte rush for 2 yards to the SOCARST42, PENALTY SOCARST illegal formation 5 yards to the SOCARST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 5
OWN 45
-2
100.0%
Dyson Roberts punt for 37 yds , Will Brown returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:090% → 0%
Q4 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-2
100.0%
Quincy Hill sacked by Jeremiah Trotter Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
100.0%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Drew Swinney for 4 yds to the Clem 19Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
100.0%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Troy Stellato for 12 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Aidan Swanson punt for 42 yds , Richard Bailey returns for 4 yds to the SCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 1:06
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Dyson Roberts punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Drew Swinney at the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29END OF GAME3 plays · 7 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q4 0:42
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-3
100.0%
Will Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 27 Will Taylor fumbled, recovered by Clem Will TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:21
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 11 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.2
FG · Q2 0:19
Dyson Roberts 27 yd FG GOOD
-0.2
TD · Q1 7:20
Will Shipley run for 7 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.1