2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:21 · Cesar Barajas punt for 53 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 37 yds to the ODU 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:13: Austin Kendall pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 32 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +11.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:03: Jacob Barnes 30 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +9.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:19: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +12.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:01: Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +22.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Nick Rice 46 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +31.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9LT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 2 at LT 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.0%57% to convertField goal40.9%−0.142% to makePunt40.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:27ODU 4th & 15 at LT 37, tiedClose callPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it42.2%−0.117% to convertField goal42.3%40% to makePuntTheir call42.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:53ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 42, tiedClose callPunted · 44.1% before the snapGo for it44.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:00LT 4th & 5 at LT 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snapGo for it55.3%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.3%average punt
- Q2 12:25ODU 4th & 27 at ODU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snapGo for it43.7%−1.56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.2%average punt
- Q2 10:07LT 4th & 10 at LT 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it52.6%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.2%average punt
- Q2 8:11LT 4th & 10 at ODU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snapGo for it53.8%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call54.1%51% to makePunt53.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 3:56ODU 4th & 1 at LT 19, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snapGo for it50.7%71% to convertField goalTheir call48.9%−1.877% to makePunt43.9%−6.9average punt
- Q2 2:22LT 4th & 1 at LT 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt46.6%−2.2average punt
- Q2 0:03LT 4th & 4 at ODU 12, down 2Close callKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snapGo for it49.9%45% to convertField goalTheir call49.5%−0.486% to makePunt41.5%−8.4average punt
- Q3 13:21LT 4th & 3 at LT 39, tiedClose callPunted · 52.6% before the snapGo for it53.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.4%−0.8average punt
- Q3 6:51LT 4th & 18 at ODU 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snapGo for it31.4%−4.212% to convertField goalTheir call35.6%64% to makePunt25.9%−9.8average punt
- Q3 5:13LT 4th & 6 at ODU 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.0%40% to convertField goal40.3%−0.745% to makePunt39.3%−1.7average punt
- Q3 2:42ODU 4th & 1 at LT 39, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.9%70% to convertField goal60.9%−5.136% to makePunt61.0%−4.9average punt
- Q4 14:48LT 4th & 13 at LT 48, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snapGo for it33.0%−2.621% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.6%average punt
- Q4 12:40ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 8, up 4Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snapGo for it65.0%50% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 11:54ODU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt42.1%−6.7average punt
- Q4 1:52ODU 4th & 13 at LT 13, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snapGo for it31.0%−25.717% to convertField goalTheir call56.7%85% to makePunt17.6%−39.0average punt
- Q4 0:28LT 4th & 3 at ODU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.7%52% to convertField goal49.4%−2.325% to makePunt47.9%−3.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 1:13LT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call58.4%97% to makeGo for two58.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:19ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call63.4%97% to makeGo for two63.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:01LT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call57.9%97% to makeGo for two57.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 4:3342% → 43%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 37
0
41.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for no gain to the LaTch 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 2:5857% → 57%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
43.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
42.6%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-5
42.6%
KENDALL, Austin pass up the middle complete for 24 yards to HEBERT, Griffin caught at the ODU20 and advanced to the ODU18 (HEADEN, Joe Joe;YOUNG, Jordan). PENALTY LAT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HOLLINS, Kellton enforced 5 yards from the ODU42 to the ODU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
43.1%
Cesar Barajas punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 3:3644% → 45%
Q1 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+15
43.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Elijah Davis for 15 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
43.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 2 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
44.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 3:5355% → 55%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
44.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+8
44.6%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 8 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
44.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 5 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+3
44.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+10
45.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 10 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+4
45.4%
Cesar Barajas punt for 37 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 4 yds to the ODU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 2:3546% → 46%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
46.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordan Bly for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 29
-15
46.2%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left complete for 15 yards to KUNTZ, Zack caught at the ODU44 and advanced to the ODU44 (LADLER, Khalil). PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on JENNINGS, Ali enforced 15 yards to the ODU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 27
OWN 15
0
45.6%
Ethan Duane punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1855% → 53%
Q2 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+11
46.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 11 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
44.3%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for no gain to the LaTch 46Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
47.3%
Cesar Barajas punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7Uncategorized3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
LTDrive 8MISSED FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4756% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9FG8 plays · 49 yds · 4:1549% → 54%
Q2 8:11
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+5
48.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 5 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+20
47.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 20 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+6
50.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 6 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3948% → 61%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
52.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 12 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
51.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+13
54.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 13 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
38.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 32 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11FG8 plays · 66 yds · 0:4947% → 56%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
52.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+47
52.3%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Bub Means for 47 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
48.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the ODU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3354% → 52%
Q3 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+37
47.7%
Cesar Barajas punt for 53 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 37 yds to the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD9 plays · 55 yds · 3:0254% → 67%
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
52.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 2 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+11
51.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 11 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+15
53.4%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Targeting on ALLEN, Tristan enforced (Tristan Allen) to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14FG7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1842% → 38%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
57.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 6 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+13
57.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Bub Means for 13 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
58.0%
Austin Kendall sacked by Amorie Morrison for 0 yards to the ODU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15INT3 plays · 7 yds · 0:5363% → 64%
LTDrive 16DOWNS4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4043% → 40%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
56.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 4 yds to the ODU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · 25 yds · 2:3164% → 66%
LTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5440% → 35%
Q3 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
58.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Jacob Adams for 2 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
58.7%
GARNER, Greg rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the ODU43 (HAYNES, Marcus). PENALTY LAT Holding on ADAMS, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the ODU49 to the LAT41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+7
61.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for 7 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0866% → 64%
Q4 12:40
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+17
64.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 52 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 17 yds to the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD5 plays · 43 yds · 0:3940% → 66%
Q4 12:40
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+33
62.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 33 yds to the ODU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21FG21 plays · 58 yds · 10:0247% → 56%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
46.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 2 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
48.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 5 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
47.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 6 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
52.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Donta Anthony Jr. for 8 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+15
50.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 15 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+7
51.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 7 yds to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-1
51.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 30 yds · 1:2450% → 51%
Q4 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
50.3%
JD Head pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 4 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
49.0%
JD Head pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
45.6%
HEAD, JD pass to the left incomplete intended for EMILUS, Samuel broken up by JOHNSON, R'Tarriun at the ODU30. PENALTY ODU Offsides on HAYNES, Marcus enforced 5 yards from the LAT48 to the ODU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23FG8 plays · 26 yds · 0:2864% → 97%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
63.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 10 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Nick Rice 46 yd FG GOOD
+31.6
TD · Q4 12:01
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-22.9
TD · Q3 10:19
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
+12