Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 35 at Old Dominion 34

ODU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:30 · Evan Finegan punt for 53 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 6 yds to the ODU 41 BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the ODU 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−32.1Pregame prior−17.5Score differential−17.4Garbage-time factor−8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:14: Dylan McDuffie run for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +8.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:07: Tim Terry Jr. 67 Yd Fumble Return (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +7.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:34: D.J. Mack Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +5.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:36: Jon-Luke Peaker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +16.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:19: D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice PAT MISSED) — ODU win probability +26.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:32BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14ODU 4th & 3 at BUF 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:04ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:49BUF 4th & 3 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:03ODU 4th & 8 at BUF 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:25ODU 4th & 17 at ODU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:55ODU 4th & 17 at ODU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:58ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:30BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 35, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:41ODU 4th & 10 at BUF 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:41BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:12BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:33ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:24BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:25BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:03BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.3
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:19ODU 4th & 11 at BUF 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−2.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−4.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:14BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:37ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:49BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:25BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:14BUF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:07BUF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:18ODU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:34ODU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:36ODU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:19ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−6.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:2380% → 78%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
19.8%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the left incomplete intended for GASSETT, Jamari broken up by HEADEN, Joe Joe at the BUF25. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the BUF20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
19.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
19.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
19.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 10 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
19.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
19.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
19.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
19.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
19.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
21.6%
punt blocked by Steven Williams blocked by Steven WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2MISSED FG TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 3:1621% → 21%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
20.7%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 7 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
20.7%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
20.6%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+90
21.1%
Nick Rice 23 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by C.J. Bazile return 85 yards for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0421% → 21%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
21.0%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 1 yd to the ODU 29Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
21.0%
Elijah Davis run for 2 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
20.9%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+54
21.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 30 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) to the Buff 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 5:1579% → 78%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
21.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
21.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
21.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
21.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+14
21.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 14 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
20.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
20.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 3
50
0
20.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 3
50
0
21.8%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:1224% → 28%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
23.7%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
23.7%
Blake Watson run for 11 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
24.1%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isiah Paige for 13 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.2%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:4274% → 78%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
26.0%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the BUF41; QB hurried by BRANDT-EPPS, Devin. PENALTY BUF Holding enforced 10 yards from the BUF26 to the BUF16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+15
26.1%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the left complete for 9 yards to WILLIAMS, Quian caught at the BUF20 and advanced to the BUF25 (CHARITY, Damion;WILLIAMS JR., Steven), out of bounds. PENALTY ODU Unsportsmanlike Conduct enforced 15 yards from the BUF21 to the BUF36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
25.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
25.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
25.7%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the ODU42; QB hurried by JOHNSON, R'Tarriun. PENALTY ODU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the BUF38 to the BUF43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+11
25.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 11 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
25.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
25.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+27
26.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 27 yds to the ODU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
25.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the ODU 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+4
25.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.0%
Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:4624% → 24%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
23.7%
Isaiah Spencer run for 10 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
23.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 3 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
24.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
25.0%
Elijah Davis run for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
25.0%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
24.7%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
24.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 3:3876% → 83%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
24.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+2
23.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
24.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+34
23.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 34 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
22.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 26 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
22.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+1
22.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the ODU 13Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
16.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3018% → 17%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.1%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
17.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. sacked by Max Michel and Daymond Williams for 0 yards to the ODU 18Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
17.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the ODU 45Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
17.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dylan McDuffie at the Buff 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:4183% → 92%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
16.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
16.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Borland for 10 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
16.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
16.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the ODU 39Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
16.7%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
16.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Bernard Porter for 7 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+1
16.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the ODU 26Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
16.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
16.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the ODU 20Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
7.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:0711% → 6%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.3%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the ODU 20Similar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+40
11.2%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 40 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
12.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
12.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. sacked by Kyler Laing for 0 yards to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+67
5.5%
Tim Terry Jr. 67 Yd Fumble Return (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:095% → 4%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.0%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 3 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
4.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 11 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
5.1%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 33Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+8
4.8%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 8 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
3.4%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
4.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 29 yds, downed at the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2896% → 96%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
4.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
4.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
4.4%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the ODU45. PENALTY ODU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the BUF30 to the BUF35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
4.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+6
4.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 53 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 6 yds to the ODU 41 BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the ODU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:304% → 4%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
4.2%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
4.0%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 11 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
4.4%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 7 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
4.0%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:193% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
3.2%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the ODU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
3.1%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
3.1%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Javon Harvey for 10 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
3.3%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 6 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+8
3.1%
Blake Watson run for 8 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
3.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Javon Harvey for 9 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
3.4%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.6%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
3.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
3.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
2.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. sacked by James Patterson and Eric Black for 0 yards to the Buff 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
2.6%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 47 fumbled, recovered by ODU Alonzo Ford Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:153% → 8%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
2.9%
Elijah Davis run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
2.9%
Elijah Davis run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+9
2.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Javon Harvey for 9 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
3.1%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
3.0%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+2
2.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 12 yds to the ODU 33 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 28
OWN 47
+11
2.7%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Jon-Luke Peaker for 11 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+42
7.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 42 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2795% → 96%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
4.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
4.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
4.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
4.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 8 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
4.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
3.7%
Jackson Baltar punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:075% → 14%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
4.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 14 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
5.1%
Javon Harvey run for 6 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (TEAM) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
50
+2
5.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
5.6%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Javon Harvey for 11 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
5.7%
D.J. Mack Jr. sacked by Max Michel for 0 yards to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 22
OPP 49
+29
5.3%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 29 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
6.3%
Isiah Paige run for 3 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
6.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, Face mask (3 yards) (Kyler Laing) to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
6.3%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 9 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
8.2%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4890% → 91%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
9.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
9.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
9.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+18
8.8%
Jackson Baltar punt for 54 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 18 yds to the ODU 43 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Personal Foul (Jason Henderson) to the ODU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3911% → 10%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
11.2%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 6 yds to the ODU 17Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+7
11.3%
Elijah Davis run for 7 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
11.4%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 4 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-5
11.6%
Isiah Paige run for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
10.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
10.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 60 yds, downed at the Buff 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0993% → 93%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
7.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
7.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
7.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+8
7.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 51 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 8 yds to the ODU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:489% → 28%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
9.3%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 3 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+31
9.7%
Blake Watson run for 31 yds to the BUFFALO 29 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah King) to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
11.7%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isiah Paige for no gain to the Buff 14Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
11.7%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 7 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
28.0%
Jon-Luke Peaker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0782% → 82%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
18.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
17.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
18.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+5
18.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 39 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 5 yds to the ODU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:1822% → 27%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
22.4%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+28
23.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 28 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
27.8%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
27.5%
Blake Watson run for 11 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
28.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the Buff 12Similar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+9
27.4%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isiah Paige for 9 yds fumbled, recovered by Buff Daymond WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0487% → 87%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
12.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 12
OWN 1
0
13.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+7
12.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+13
12.8%
Jackson Baltar punt for 50 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 13 yds to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:4425% → 42%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
25.0%
Elijah Davis run for 7 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-2
25.8%
Elijah Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
25.0%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
26.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
27.3%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+10
25.7%
Blake Watson run for 10 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
21.4%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
18.2%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-1
15.3%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Ali Jennings III for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+19
42.1%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-42.1
TD · Q4 0:19
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice PAT MISSED)
+26.9
TD · Q4 8:36
Jon-Luke Peaker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com