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FSU

Florida State 21 at Florida 24

FLA
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+10.1FLA 95.4%Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds for a TD,(Chris Howard KICK)AWAY 7 - HOME 24 · Q4 12:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:36 · Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense+24.8Pregame prior+2.0Garbage-time factor+11.5Score differential+13.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:45: Jordan Travis run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:09: Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +13.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:36: Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +10.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:49: Ontaria Wilson 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +27.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:49: kickoff FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Touch Of Kick (Ryan Fitzgerald) to the FlaSt 35 — FLA win probability +11.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:49FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:53FLA 4th & 10 at FSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:17FSU 4th & 29 at FSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:06FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:06FSU 4th & 18 at FSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:44FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:44FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:09FLA 4th & 5 at FSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:26FSU 4th & 16 at FLA 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:42FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 10, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:36FLA 4th & 3 at FSU 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−7.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:14FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:12FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:55FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:54FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:45FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:09FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:36FLA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:46FSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:49FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.7 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0660% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 9 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
59.8%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Gouraige,Richard) 5 yards from UFL34 to UFL29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
59.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
59.8%
Anthony Richardson run for 4 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
59.8%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+12
59.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 12 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
59.8%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Copeland,Jacob) 5 yards from FSU48 to UFL47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+1
59.8%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+5
59.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 5 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+47
61.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 47 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
61.5%
PENALTY UFL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mincey,Gerald) 15 yards from UFL35 to UFL20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:5839% → 38%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
61.1%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
61.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-11
61.1%
Jordan Travis sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
62.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5662% → 62%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
62.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Ja'Quavion FraziarsSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
62.2%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
61.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Rick WellsSimilar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
62.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ontaria Wilson at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 4:3638% → 36%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
62.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+6
62.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+3
62.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
62.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 17 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
61.9%
Jordan Travis run for 13 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
61.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+16
61.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 23
OWN 40
+6
62.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 29
OWN 34
0
64.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:1164% → 63%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+17
63.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 17 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
63.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+3
63.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Fla 21 Nay'Quan Wright fumbled, forced by Jarvis Brownlee Jr., recovered by Fla Kingsley EguakunSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+6
63.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 6 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
63.4%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ontaria Wilson at the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:0236% → 35%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
64.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
64.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
64.8%
McKenzie Milton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
66.1%
Emory Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5437% → 34%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
63.4%
Rodemaker,Tate pass complete to Wilson,Ontaria for 3 yards to the FSU46, out of bounds PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Parchment,Andrew) 15 yards from FSU43 to FSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 28
0
64.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 28
0
64.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 28
+7
65.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 7 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
65.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for no gain to the Fla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:5765% → 68%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
65.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+5
65.0%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+25
64.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 25 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
66.8%
Emory Jones run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
67.0%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
67.7%
Emory Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2435% → 47%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
65.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
65.3%
Travis,Jordan pass incomplete to McClain,Malik PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Helm,Avery) 15 yards from FSU33 to FSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
63.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
50
+5
63.7%
Travis,Jordan sacked for loss of 1 yard to the FSU49 (Umanmielen,Princely, Truesdell,Tyrone) PENALTY UFL Offside (Umanmielen,Princely) 5 yards from FSU50 to UFL45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-4
63.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 11 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Dillan Gibbons) to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 11
50
+26
64.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 26 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
62.4%
Jordan Travis run for 15 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
63.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
52.8%
Jordan Travis run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11INT
19 plays · 66 yds · 6:1660% → 64%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
59.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
58.9%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
60.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 1 yd to the Fla 36Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+6
59.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 6 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+7
60.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 7 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
61.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
62.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
62.2%
Wright,Nay'Quan rush for 7 yards gain to the FSU33 (McLendon II,Derrick; Dent,Akeem) PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FSU40 to FSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+5
62.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
62.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
62.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+3
62.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
63.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 8 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
63.4%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
62.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.5%
Emory Jones pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 53 yds · 0:2944% → 48%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
55.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
56.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Mohamoud Diabate) to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
52.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 5 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+12
51.7%
Jordan Travis run for 12 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:1645% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
55.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
55.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
55.2%
PENALTY FSU False Start (Gibbons,Dillan) 5 yards from FSU39 to FSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
57.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+14
57.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds for a 1ST down , Xzavier Henderson returns for 14 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+14
57.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds for a 1ST down , Xzavier Henderson returns for 14 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:3563% → 65%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
62.9%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
62.9%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+14
62.1%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 14 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
63.6%
Anthony Richardson run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-5
63.6%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Reese,Stewart) 5 yards from FSU19 to FSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
63.6%
Anthony Richardson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+4
62.4%
Anthony Richardson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
65.1%
Chris Howard 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:3836% → 35%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+36
63.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 36 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
60.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 11 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
59.7%
Travis,Jordan pass incomplete to Parchment,Andrew broken up by Elam,Kaiir PENALTY UFL Offside (Cox Jr.,Brenton) 5 yards from UFL44 to UFL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 5
OPP 39
-7
59.3%
Jordan Travis sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+16
60.8%
Jordan Travis run for 16 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
58.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-7
60.1%
Jordan Travis sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 36 Jordan Travis fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Maurice Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
64.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Fabien Lovett) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
64.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4465% → 63%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
64.8%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 6 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+2
64.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 9Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+1
63.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 10Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
62.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:3370% → 84%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.0%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
69.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 21
OPP 44
+22
66.0%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Malik Davis for 22 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
70.0%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+8
70.0%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 8 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
70.0%
Anthony Richardson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.0%
Malik Davis run for no gain to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3517% → 20%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.1%
PENALTY FSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting UFL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
80.1%
Jordan Travis pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
80.1%
Jordan Travis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:5883% → 95%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
83.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+8
84.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
84.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
86.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
86.1%
Anthony Richardson run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
86.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+10
85.9%
PENALTY FSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Robinson,Jammie) 10 yards from FSU20 to FSU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
86.1%
Anthony Richardson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
86.1%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
85.3%
Anthony Richardson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:415% → 16%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
94.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+34
94.7%
Jordan Travis run for 34 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
93.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 2 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+3
94.1%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+11
94.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 11 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
83.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3287% → 89%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.0%
Anthony Richardson run for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
87.3%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
87.8%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
87.7%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
86.5%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
89.4%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0210% → 7%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
90.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-6
90.5%
Jordan Travis sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+6
91.2%
Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
92.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1792% → 93%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
91.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
92.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
93.6%
Anthony Richardson run for no gain to the Fla 43Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
93.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
23 plays · 92 yds · 3:066% → 34%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
93.8%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 14 Jordan Travis fumbled, forced by Ty'Ron Hopper, recovered by FlaSt Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
93.4%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+23
93.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 23 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
91.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 7 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
91.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 18 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
90.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Treshaun WardSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
90.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+5
91.6%
PENALTY UFL Offside (Lee,Jalen) 5 yards from UFL30 to UFL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+8
91.3%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
90.5%
Travis,Jordan pass complete to Wilson,Jordan for 7 yards to the UFL10, out of bounds PENALTY UFL Offside (Cox Jr.,Brenton) 5 yards from UFL17 to UFL12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 5
OPP 12
0
93.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
93.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+7
93.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 7 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
93.0%
Travis,Jordan pass incomplete to Parchment,Andrew PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Helm,Avery) 3 yards from UFL05 to UFL02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
93.2%
Travis,Jordan pass complete to Wilson,Ontaria for 2 yards to the UFL00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:03 PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Parchment,Andrew) 15 yards from UFL02 to UFL17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
0
93.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q4 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+9
93.7%
PENALTY UFL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cox Jr.,Brenton) 9 yards from UFL17 to UFL08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
65.6%
Ontaria Wilson 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:4993% → 95%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
93.0%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-4
94.3%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 18
OPP 43
-7
94.9%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:49
Ontaria Wilson 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
-27.6
TD · Q3 2:09
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q4 0:49
kickoff FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Touch Of Kick (Ryan Fitzgerald) to the FlaSt 35
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com