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FLA

Florida 23 at Missouri 24

MIZ
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:14 · Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, downed at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 149Pregame prior−1.5Home team on offense−0.8Score differential−4.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Time remaining−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:52: Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +11.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:53: Niko Hea 41 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick) — MIZ win probability +24.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 8:30: Chris Howard 33 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +15.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Trent Whittemore pass complete to Emory Jones for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +17.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Tyler Badie run for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Bazelak pass to Daniel Parker Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +57.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 10 of 11FLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 9:49FLA 4th & 5 at MIZ 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:08MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:54FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:40MIZ 4th & 14 at FLA 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55FLA 4th & 14 at MIZ 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:01MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:01FLA 4th & 7 at MIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:35FLA 4th & 9 at MIZ 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:56MIZ 4th & 12 at FLA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:44FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:34MIZ 4th & 14 at FLA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:59MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:49MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:23FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:37MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:09FLA 4th & 17 at MIZ 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−2.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:27MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−4.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:45FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−4.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:53FLA 4th & 2 at MIZ 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−4.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−4.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:30FLA 4th & 2 at MIZ 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.3
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−15.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:51MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:14FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−13.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:04MIZ 4th & 9 at FLA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−6.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−27.0
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:02FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−9.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 12:52FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:53MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 5:1171% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.7%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
28.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 2 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
28.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 4 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
28.7%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+15
28.7%
Malik Davis run for 15 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
28.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 13 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
28.7%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
28.7%
Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-2
28.7%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 25 fumbled, recovered by Fla Emory JonesSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
30.7%
Chris Howard 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:4131% → 32%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
30.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+22
30.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 22 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
31.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 3 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
31.1%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
31.0%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Khris Bogle and Zachary Carter for 0 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
31.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 49 yds, downed at the Fla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:1468% → 66%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
32.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 4Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 4
-2
32.2%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 2Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+5
32.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 5 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
33.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 11 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1434% → 34%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
34.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 1 yd to the Fla 17Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-5
34.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 14
OPP 22
0
32.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+39
33.9%
Harrison Mevis 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:4566% → 65%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
34.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 16 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
33.3%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+15
33.2%
Emory Jones run for 15 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
33.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
33.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+1
33.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 37
-5
35.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
35.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 31 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5436% → 36%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
35.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 7Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 7
0
35.7%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 7Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 7
+9
35.0%
Connor Bazelak run for 9 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
35.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 34 yds , returns for no gain to the Misso 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FG
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2666% → 65%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
34.2%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-1
33.6%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-2
34.2%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+19
35.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 19 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
33.6%
JONES, Emory pass to the right incomplete intended for COPELAND, Jacob thrown to the MIZ0. PENALTY MIZ Offsides on JEFFCOAT, Trajan declined MIZ Pass Interference on GREEN IV, Allie enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the MIZ2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
33.6%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 4Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
33.6%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
34.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 9Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
34.6%
Chris Howard 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3236% → 39%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
35.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
35.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 26 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
37.6%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+4
38.4%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
38.4%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
38.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
37.4%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Antonio Valentino for 0 yards to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+46
39.4%
Harrison Mevis 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1263% → 62%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.2%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 24Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
37.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
38.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
38.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the Misso 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:1040% → 46%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
40.4%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 12Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
40.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 5 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+4
39.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+5
39.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offsides (Mohamoud Diabate) to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+50
42.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 50 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
46.1%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
46.1%
BADIE, Tyler rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the UF 22 (DIABATE, Mohamoud). PENALTY UF Personal Foul on CARTER, Zachary enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the UF 20 to the UF 10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
46.1%
Elijah Young run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
45.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 7 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
46.5%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Zachary Carter for 0 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
46.3%
Harrison Mevis 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:3452% → 48%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.3%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
46.5%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
47.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 9 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
46.1%
Emory Jones sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat for 0 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+7
52.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+49
51.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 49 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:5546% → 46%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+11
46.4%
Tyler Badie run for 11 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+11
46.4%
Grant McKinniss punt for 41 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 1:0756% → 69%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
50
+45
44.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 45 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
42.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 3 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0336% → 34%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for 0 yards to the Misso 24Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
33.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2667% → 65%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
33.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 3 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
33.0%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
33.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
35.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1437% → 36%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
37.3%
Tyler Badie run for 7 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+2
38.1%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 1
OWN 23
-1
37.0%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 22Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 2
OWN 22
+1
36.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 1 yd to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:2864% → 66%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
35.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+8
35.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
34.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 19 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
33.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
33.1%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+7
33.4%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.6%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
32.6%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-3
33.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 12
OPP 32
-5
36.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Trent Whittemore) to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 17
OPP 37
0
33.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 29 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:4235% → 34%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+28
35.2%
Tyler Badie run for 28 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
35.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
34.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+48
33.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 38 yds FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ja'Markis Weston) to the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4268% → 65%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
32.5%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 17Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+1
32.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 1 yd to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
33.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
35.0%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 67 yds, downed at the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:5236% → 68%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
36.0%
Tyler Badie run for 17 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
37.1%
Tyler Badie run for 19 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
41.0%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
40.7%
BAZELAK, Connor pass up the middle intercepted by ELAM, Kaiir at the UF 40 intended for DOVE, Tauskie. Elam return for 0 yards to the UF 40, End of Play. PENALTY UF Holding on ELAM, Kaiir enforced 10 yards from the UF 49 to the UF 39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
41.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
44.2%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+5
41.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 5 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
44.2%
BADIE, Tyler rush to the left for no gain to the UF 26 (DEXTER, Gervon;CARTER, Zachary). PENALTY MIZ Personal Foul on WOOD, Connor enforced 15 yards from the UF 26 to the UF 41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 25
OPP 41
+41
68.4%
Niko Hea 41 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2337% → 52%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
63.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 26 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.6%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
58.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+8
61.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 8 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+17
60.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 17 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
55.8%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
60.4%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
62.8%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 16Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
47.7%
Chris Howard 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3957% → 58%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.8%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
57.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 5 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
58.0%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
58.0%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
59.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+2
57.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 43 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 2 yds to the Fla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3749% → 44%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
51.1%
Emory Jones sacked by Jatorian Hansford for 0 yards to the Fla 7Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 20
OWN 7
+6
53.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 6 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 14
OWN 13
0
53.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 14
OWN 13
0
56.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1064% → 61%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
50
+2
64.1%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
64.4%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+15
64.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trey Dean III) to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
67.2%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+1
67.0%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+1
64.4%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
60.5%
Harrison Mevis 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0249% → 44%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
50.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 13
OWN 26
-1
51.9%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+2
53.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+5
55.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 39 yds , D'ionte Smith returns for 5 yds to the Misso 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
41.1%
Emory Jones run for 10 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
41.1%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
41.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 9 yds to the Misso 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
24.1%
Trent Whittemore pass complete to Emory Jones for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
28.0%
Tyler Badie run for 12 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
85.9%
Tyler Badie run for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Bazelak pass to Daniel Parker Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Tyler Badie run for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Bazelak pass to Daniel Parker Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
+57.9
TD · Q4 11:53
Niko Hea 41 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)
+24.2
TD · OT 0:00
Trent Whittemore pass complete to Emory Jones for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
-17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com