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SAM

Samford 52 at Florida 70

FLA
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreSAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Samf 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 199Pregame prior+3.2Home team on offense+30.2Score differential+15.4Garbage-time factor+15.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:17: L. Welch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Z. Williams KICK) — SAM win probability +6.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:24: Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:59: Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Zach Williams KICK) — SAM win probability +6.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:59: Zach Williams 33 yd FG GOOD — SAM win probability +6.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:03: Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +8.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SAM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:26FLA 4th & 1 at SAM 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56SAM 4th & 1 at SAM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:53SAM 4th & 8 at FLA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:52FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:59FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:57SAM 4th & 2 at FLA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:59SAM 4th & 15 at FLA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−2.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−7.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:42SAM 4th & 7 at SAM 35, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:13SAM 4th & 13 at SAM 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:55FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 41, up 18
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 10 of 10SAM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:26SAM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:56FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:53SAM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:02FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:25SAM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:19FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 10:02SAM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 8:10FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 7:55SAM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q2 3:17SAM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q2 1:03FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 12:34FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q3 6:12FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q3 1:24FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 13:59SAM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 9:03FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  17. Q4 5:37FLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SAMDrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:341% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
Liam Welch pass complete to Ty King for 5 yds to the Samf 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.7%
Jay Stanton run for 4 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
98.7%
Jay Stanton run for 3 yds to the Samf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+20
98.7%
Liam Welch pass complete to Michael Vice for 20 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+17
98.7%
Montrell Washington run for 17 yds to the Fla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.7%
DeMarcus Ware run for 2 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.7%
Liam Welch run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.7%
PENALTY UFL Offside (Torrence,Rashad). NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
98.7%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 18 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
98.7%
PENALTY UFL Offside (Lee,Jalen) 5 yards from UFL25 to UFL20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 20
0
98.7%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Ty KingSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
98.7%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.7%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
98.7%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Montrell Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3098% → 98%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
98.2%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 36Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
98.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+16
98.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 16 yds to the Samf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.2%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Samf 40Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
98.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
98.2%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the Samf 34Similar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
98.2%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Samf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
98.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 27 yds to the Samf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.9%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:032% → 3%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 6 yds to the Samf 31Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
97.8%
Liam Welch run for 1 yd to the Samf 32Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
97.8%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jay Stanton for 2 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
97.8%
Liam Welch run for 3 yds to the Samf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.8%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Montrell WashingtonSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.8%
Welch,Liam pass complete to Smith,Chandler for 8 yards to the SAM45 (Dexter,Gervon) PENALTY UFL Offside (Cox Jr.,Brenton) 5 yards from SAM37 to SAM42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
97.8%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
97.8%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+58
97.0%
Liam Welch pass complete to Michael Vice for 58 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:4097% → 98%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+46
97.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 46 yds to the Samf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ja'Markis Weston for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 5TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:303% → 4%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
97.4%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 7 yds to the Samf 28Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+8
97.3%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 8 yds to the Samf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.3%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Ty KingSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.3%
Liam Welch run for 4 yds to the Samf 40Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
97.3%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 7 yds to the Samf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.2%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
50
+10
97.2%
Welch,Liam pass incomplete to Ringer,Peyton broken up by Elam,Kaiir PENALTY UFL Holding (Elam,Kaiir) 10 yards from SAM50 to UFL40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
95.8%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jay Stanton for 40 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0696% → 97%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
96.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
95.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+22
95.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 22 yds to the Samf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
96.8%
Emory Jones run for 31 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 1:264% → 4%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.3%
Washington,Montrell rush for 1 yard loss to the SAM24 (Lee,Jalen) PENALTY SAM Illegal Motion (King,Ty) 5 yards from SAM25 to SAM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Michael ViceSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+14
96.4%
Welch,Liam pass incomplete to Smith,Chandler PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Elam,Kaiir) 14 yards from SAM20 to SAM34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
96.3%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 15 yds to the Samf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
96.1%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
96.1%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Montrell WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
96.2%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Torrence PollardSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
96.1%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Montrell WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
96.2%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Torrence PollardSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
96.0%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0196% → 96%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
96.1%
Malik Davis run for 18 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
96.2%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
96.3%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
96.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Ja'Markis WestonSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
96.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Ja'Markis WestonSimilar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+1
95.6%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 9TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:505% → 7%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+39
95.0%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 39 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.8%
Jay Stanton run for 1 yd to the Fla 4Similar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.8%
Jay Stanton run for 1 yd to the Fla 4Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.7%
Liam Welch run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:4693% → 95%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+27
93.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 27 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
93.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 11 yds to the Samf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
93.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 33 yds to the Samf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
94.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the Samf 1Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4992% → 90%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
91.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 8 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
92.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
92.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
90.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Chandler Smith at the Samf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 12TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 2:4210% → 19%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
90.4%
Liam Welch pass complete to Michael Vice for 9 yds to the Samf 22Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+38
89.9%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 38 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
89.3%
Liam Welch run for 9 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+6
89.2%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 6 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+6
89.2%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 6 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
87.6%
Montrell Washington run for 1 yd to the Fla 24Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+12
87.6%
Liam Welch pass complete to DeMarcus Ware for 12 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
87.6%
DeMarcus Ware run for 2 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
81.5%
L. Welch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Z. Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:0683% → 88%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
82.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+17
82.6%
Emory Jones run for 17 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
83.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 7 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
83.9%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
83.9%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
50
+5
84.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the Samf 45Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+45
87.7%
E. Jones pass,to N. Wright for 45 yds for a TD, (C. Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5615% → 17%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
84.8%
Jay Stanton run for 5 yds to the Samf 27Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-4
83.0%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Samf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:1985% → 91%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
84.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 16 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
85.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 7 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+14
86.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 14 yds to the Samf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
86.8%
Jacob Copeland run for 1 yd to the Samf 49Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+49
90.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 49 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 16INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:5512% → 14%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
88.5%
Liam Welch run for 18 yds to the Samf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
87.6%
Liam Welch pass complete to Torrence Pollard for 9 yds to the Samf 49Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
87.0%
Liam Welch pass complete to Torrence Pollard for 6 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
87.0%
Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
87.0%
Liam Welch run for 1 yd to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
85.8%
Liam Welch pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:1989% → 94%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.7%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+26
88.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 26 yds to the Samf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.1%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
90.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 10 yds to the Samf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
90.4%
Davis,Malik rush for 0 yards to the SAM34 (Plair,Coutrell) PENALTY UFL Holding (Braun,Josh) 10 yards from SAM34 to SAM44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+4
89.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Samf 40Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+9
89.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 9 yds to the Samf 31Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-5
89.9%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Tarquin,Michael) 5 yards from SAM31 to SAM36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+15
89.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 15 yds to the Samf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
90.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 14 yds to the Samf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:099% → 10%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
91.5%
Liam Welch pass complete to Ty King for 2 yds to the Samf 23Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+11
91.5%
Liam Welch run for 11 yds to the Samf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
91.1%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 6 yds to the Samf 40Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
90.4%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 5 yds to the Samf 45 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
90.6%
Liam Welch run for 1 yd to the Samf 46Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+7
90.8%
Liam Welch pass complete to Michael Vice for 7 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
90.3%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+1
90.2%
Liam Welch run for 1 yd to the Fla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:1893% → 97%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
93.1%
Jones,Emory pass intercepted by Anderson,Lamar at SAM15 broken up by Herring,Ty Anderson,Lamar return 37 yards to the UFL48 (Shorter,Justin) PENALTY SAM Pass Interference (Johnson,Hakeem) 15 yards from UFL48 to SAM37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
93.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 15 yds to the Samf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
93.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the Samf 17Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+4
93.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the Samf 13Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+13
97.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:254% → 12%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.8%
Jay Stanton run for 3 yds to the Samf 28Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
95.6%
Welch,Liam pass incomplete to Washington,Montrell QB hurried by Dexter,Gervon PENALTY UFL Pass Interference (Torrence,Rashad) 15 yards from SAM28 to SAM43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.3%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Michael ViceSimilar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
95.5%
Jay Stanton run for 3 yds to the Samf 46Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+20
95.6%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 20 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
95.2%
Montrell Washington pass complete to Liam Welch for 16 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
94.9%
Liam Welch sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 23Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+23
88.5%
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 21FG
13 plays · 36 yds · 1:5812% → 17%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
88.4%
Liam Welch run for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
88.2%
Liam Welch run for 2 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+10
88.3%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 10 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
86.8%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Torrence PollardSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
87.2%
Liam Welch pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 7 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+10
87.9%
Welch,Liam pass incomplete to Pollard,Torrence PENALTY UFL Holding (Elam,Kaiir) 10 yards from UFL19 to UFL09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
86.7%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Montrell WashingtonSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
86.7%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q4 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
87.6%
SAMFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kendall Watson) to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
88.8%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to DeMarcus WareSimilar
Q4 11:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
82.7%
Zach Williams 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:4984% → 95%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
84.4%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Zipperer,Keon) 5 yards from UFL22 to UFL17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+17
84.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 17 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
84.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+8
86.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
50
+8
86.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 8 yds to the Samf 42Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+24
86.9%
Emory Jones run for 24 yds to the Samf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
95.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:137% → 6%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
93.5%
Liam Welch pass complete to Chandler Smith for 2 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
93.4%
Liam Welch pass complete to Torrence Pollard for 6 yds to the Samf 40Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
93.2%
Liam Welch pass complete to Chandler Smith for 5 yds to the Samf 35Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
94.5%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Michael ViceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 2:0595% → 99%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
95.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Samf 30Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
95.4%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the Samf 26Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
95.2%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the Samf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.7%
Dameon Pierce run for 24 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Liam Welch pass incomplete to Montrell WashingtonSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Liam Welch pass complete to Chandler Smith for 3 yds to the Samf 28Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
98.2%
Liam Welch sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Samf 22Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
98.3%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1899% → 99%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.7%
Demarkcus Bowman run for 2 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
98.8%
PENALTY UFL False Start (Slaughter,Jake) 5 yards from UFL38 to UFL33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
98.7%
Demarkcus Bowman run for 5 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+3
98.8%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 3 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Samf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:552% → 2%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
98.1%
Deandre Williams run for 1 yd to the Samf 46Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
98.1%
Ty Boles run for 3 yds to the Samf 49Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
98.0%
Deandre Williams run for 5 yds to the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:03
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q4 13:59
Liam Welch pass complete to Montrell Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Zach Williams KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q2 3:17
L. Welch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Z. Williams KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com