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FLA

Florida 42 at LSU 49

LSU
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+30.9LSU 91.7%Jaray Jenkins 1 Yd pass from MaxJohnson (Cade York Kick)AWAY 42 - HOME 49 · Q4 3:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:30 · Jaray Jenkins 1 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Pregame prior−1.6Home team on offense+21.2Garbage-time factor+14.6Score differential+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:08: Tyrion Davis-Price 40 Yd Run (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:45: Dameon Pierce 11 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Jace Christmann Kick) — FLA win probability +20.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:27: Tyrion Davis-Price 25 Yd Run (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +25.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:14: Jacob Copeland 33 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Jace Christmann Kick) — FLA win probability +27.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:30: Jaray Jenkins 1 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +30.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:04LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:57LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:38FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:29FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:43LSU 4th & 26 at LSU 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:45FLA 4th & 5 at LSU 49, down 15
    Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:29LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:33LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:40FLA 4th & 4 at LSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−2.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:30LSU 4th & 1 at FLA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−11.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−40.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:55FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:29LSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:31LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:51LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00FLA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:12LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:01FLA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:08LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:59FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:45FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:27LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 9:14FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:30LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5624% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
24.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 10 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
24.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
25.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
25.3%
Avery Atkins punt for 16 yds, deflected by FLA Jordan Pouncey, downed at the Fla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4675% → 74%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
25.2%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-2
25.3%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-3
25.6%
Emory Jones sacked by Maason Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
26.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2126% → 27%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
26.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
26.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
26.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
26.6%
Avery Atkins punt for 32 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for no gain to the Fla 41 Xzavier Henderson fumbled, recovered by Fla Xzavier HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:0274% → 74%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
26.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 13 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
26.6%
Trent Whittemore pass complete to Emory Jones for 22 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
26.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 13 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
26.7%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
26.1%
Dameon Pierce 7 Yd Run (Jace Christmann PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2927% → 27%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
26.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
26.8%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
26.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jontre KirklinSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
26.6%
Avery Atkins punt for 34 yds, downed at the Fla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4273% → 73%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
26.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
26.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-2
26.5%
Anthony Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
26.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 5:0927% → 35%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
27.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 10 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
27.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+10
27.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 10 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
28.2%
Max Johnson sacked by Zachary Carter and Ty'Ron Hopper for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
27.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+16
27.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 16 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
29.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
29.0%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+12
29.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 12 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
29.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
29.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 13 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
30.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
35.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price 18 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0067% → 65%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Trent WhittemoreSimilar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
33.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
35.0%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:4634% → 34%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
34.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Josh Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-1
34.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 16
OWN 29
-10
33.9%
Johnson, Max pass complete to Thomas Jr., Brian for 71 yards to the FLORIDA0, PENALTY LSU holding (Wire, Cameron) 10 yards to the LSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 26
OWN 19
0
34.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 26
OWN 19
0
33.8%
Avery Atkins punt for 51 yds, downed at the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 3:0565% → 65%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
34.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 8 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
33.9%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
34.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 13 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
34.0%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
34.1%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-54
34.9%
Emory Jones pass intercepted Micah Baskerville return for 54 yds to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
46.4%
Jaray Jenkins 28 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-26
45.8%
Anthony Richardson pass intercepted Jay Ward return for 26 yds to the Fla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:2647% → 58%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
46.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 1 yd to the Fla 20Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+13
48.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
48.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the Fla 5Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
57.8%
Jaray Jenkins 5 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:0645% → 40%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
54.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 10 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
55.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
54.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
53.6%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
55.9%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-8
55.8%
Emory Jones sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+7
59.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 7 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
59.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:1662% → 69%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
61.7%
Max Johnson run for 6 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
62.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 10 yds to the LSU 27 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+8
63.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 8 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.5%
Johnson, Max pass complete to Thomas Jr., Brian for 50 yards to the FLORIDA25, PENALTY LSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the LSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
64.9%
Max Johnson run for 2 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
67.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
69.3%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+8
68.6%
Avery Atkins punt for 56 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 8 yds to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 77 yds · 0:2933% → 46%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
66.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
66.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 9 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+24
66.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 24 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
54.2%
Justin Shorter 42 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17INT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4845% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.5%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
56.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Malik DavisSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-37
68.3%
Dwight McGlothern 37 Yd Interception Return (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1132% → 50%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.8%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
68.1%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Justin Shorter for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Raydarious Jones) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
66.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
67.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 9 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
66.7%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 27 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
65.7%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+11
66.9%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Justin Shorter for 11 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
50.3%
Anthony Richardson 5 Yd Run (Anthony Richardson Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5358% → 76%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 11 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
58.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 24 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
75.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price 40 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0928% → 45%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
72.4%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 38 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
70.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+19
68.8%
Jacob Copeland run for 19 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
69.5%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
69.6%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 9 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
54.7%
Justin Shorter 5 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2664% → 64%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Mashburn for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
65.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
64.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
63.7%
Avery Atkins punt for 43 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 10 yds to the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:4841% → 63%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
59.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 6 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
57.8%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+25
58.8%
Anthony Richardson run for 25 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
56.7%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+20
57.2%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 20 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
37.0%
Dameon Pierce 11 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1847% → 81%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
47.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
50
0
51.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
50
+5
51.1%
Max Johnson run for 5 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
51.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
53.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
54.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Fla 34Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+5
53.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
55.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
80.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price 25 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1330% → 57%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Anthony Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
70.3%
Anthony Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+18
75.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 18 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
71.7%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
71.4%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+11
73.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 11 yds to the LSU 46 Nay'Quan Wright fumbled, recovered by Fla Nay'Quan Wright for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
71.1%
Anthony Richardson run for 6 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
70.9%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
72.5%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Malik DavisSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+7
74.4%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 7 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.6%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
70.4%
Anthony Richardson run for no gain to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+33
43.1%
Jacob Copeland 33 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:3353% → 92%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
53.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+13
54.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 13 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
58.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+18
55.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 18 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
59.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
61.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+24
59.9%
Josh Williams run for 24 yds to the Fla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
62.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
62.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Fla 2Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.7%
Jaray Jenkins 1 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3114% → 13%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
85.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
86.4%
Anthony Richardson run for 6 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.2%
Anthony Richardson pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
86.9%
Anthony Richardson pass intercepted Damone Clark return for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:3094% → 97%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+20
95.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 20 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
96.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 10 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 36Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:30
Jaray Jenkins 1 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)
+30.9
TD · Q4 9:14
Jacob Copeland 33 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Jace Christmann Kick)
-27.3
TD · Q4 14:27
Tyrion Davis-Price 25 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)
+25
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com