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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreFLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:56 · Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the Fla 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:19: Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 41 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +3.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:36: Trevin Wallace 76 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Matt Ruffolo PAT blocked) — UK win probability +17.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 13:39: Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale Robinson — UK win probability +8.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:32: Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +14.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:23: Jace Christmann 33 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +6.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 12:04FLA 4th & 3 at UK 41, tiedClose callPunted · 66.5% before the snapGo for it66.6%52% to convertField goal66.4%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call66.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:05UK 4th & 5 at UK 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q1 3:56FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.6%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%average punt
- Q1 0:07UK 4th & 13 at UK 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snapGo for it37.8%−0.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.3%average punt
- Q2 13:24FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snapGo for it58.8%−1.415% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.2%average punt
- Q2 11:46UK 4th & 1 at UK 44, tiedClose callPunted · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 5:32FLA 4th & 9 at UK 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snapGo for it59.4%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call59.5%49% to makePunt58.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 1:56UK 4th & 10 at UK 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it36.1%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.8%average punt
- Q3 12:53UK 4th & 9 at FLA 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.1%−0.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.9%average punt
- Q3 10:12FLA 4th & 8 at UK 42, up 3Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snapGo for it61.6%34% to convertField goal60.3%−1.330% to makePuntTheir call61.4%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:36FLA 4th & 10 at UK 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snapGo for it59.8%−1.129% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%54% to makePunt58.8%−2.1average punt
- Q3 3:36FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 42, down 3Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it45.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:56UK 4th & 2 at FLA 34, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.0%57% to convertField goal57.3%−3.747% to makePunt55.5%−5.4average punt
- Q4 6:23FLA 4th & 7 at UK 16, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.2%−0.535% to convertField goalTheir call10.7%81% to makePunt6.3%−4.4average punt
- Q4 4:39UK 4th & 2 at UK 33, up 7Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it89.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:18FLA 4th & 8 at UK 8, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.1%26% to convertField goal9.9%−6.290% to makePunt6.0%−10.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:57FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.3%97% to makeGo for two66.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:19UK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.6%97% to makeGo for two36.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:36UK Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call56.4%97% to makeGo for two56.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:32UK Touchdown, up 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call85.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two85.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFLADrive 1PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5671% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marquan McCall) to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+18
29.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 18 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
29.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 7 yds to the Kent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5131% → 31%
Q1 11:05
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+50
31.0%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENTUCKY 40 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Diwun Black) to the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0369% → 71%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
31.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 22 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
31.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
29.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 7 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3130% → 35%
FLADrive 5PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0366% → 65%
UKDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 3:4334% → 36%
Q1 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
36.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-4
36.9%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 47Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
35.7%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:3864% → 62%
Q2 13:24
4TH & 15
OWN 7
0
37.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Wan'Dale Robinson at the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3338% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9FG13 plays · 55 yds · 6:0263% → 63%
UKDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1936% → 35%
FLADrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 21 yds · 1:4164% → 65%
UKDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0138% → 37%
FLADrive 13PUNT8 plays · 38 yds · 2:2964% → 62%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
36.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 11 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
36.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 10 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
34.9%
Jones, Emory pass incomplete to Copeland, Jacob, PENALTY KENTUCKY pass interference (Valentine, Carrington) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14INT3 plays · -2 yds · 0:1838% → 37%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
38.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 12
OWN 20
-41
36.5%
Will Levis pass intercepted Tre'Vez Johnson return for 26 yds to the Kent 46 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Antonio Valentino) to the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD6 plays · 0 yds · 2:0868% → 47%
Q3 8:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+5
34.1%
Richardson, Anthony pass incomplete, PENALTY KENTUCKY offside 5 yards to the KENTUCKY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-10
33.6%
Pierce, Dameon rush for 10 yards to the KENTUCKY14, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Eguakun, Kingsley) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+76
52.7%
Trevin Wallace 76 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Matt Ruffolo PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT10 plays · 17 yds · 2:5147% → 46%
UKDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 47 yds · 3:2955% → 59%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+28
55.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 13 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Blades) to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-7
62.3%
Will Levis sacked by Daquan Newkirk for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18INT3 plays · -4 yds · 1:0444% → 40%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
56.2%
Jones, Emory pass complete to Henderson, Xzavier for 14 yards to the FLORIDA48, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (White, Ethan) 10 yards to the FLORIDA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 14
OWN 30
-20
60.4%
Emory Jones pass intercepted J.J. Weaver return for 20 yds to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19TD6 plays · 29 yds · 2:0769% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20FG15 plays · 59 yds · 5:0319% → 20%
Q4 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
81.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 16 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
82.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 8 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
82.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 2 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3686% → 87%
Q4 4:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+13
86.9%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 42 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 13 yds to the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22DOWNS17 plays · 54 yds · 4:1419% → 10%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
81.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 14 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
79.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 18 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
79.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 11 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
78.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 0
OPP 10
+5
76.5%
Jones, Emory pass incomplete, PENALTY KENTUCKY face mask (Rybka, Tre'vonn) 5 yards to the KENTUCKY5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
79.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 9Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
87.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 3 yds to the Kent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:36
Trevin Wallace 76 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Matt Ruffolo PAT blocked)
+17.5
TD · Q4 11:32
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+14.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:39
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale Robinson
+8