Try the model
TENN

Tennessee 14 at Florida 38

FLA
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.2FLA 99.6%Malik Davis 9 Yd Run (Jace ChristmannKick)AWAY 14 - HOME 38 · Q4 1:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:39 · Malik Davis 9 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+1.4Home team on offense+33.3Score differential+23.7Garbage-time factor+14.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:05: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 47 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +1.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:31: Hendon Hooker pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 75 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +3.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:15: Nay'Quan Wright run for 23 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — FLA win probability +5.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:21: Trent Whittemore pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 13 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — FLA win probability +6.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:04: Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — FLA win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:53TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:07FLA 4th & 15 at TENN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:48FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:00FLA 4th & 1 at TENN 49, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:37TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:16TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:07FLA 4th & 2 at TENN 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:15TENN 4th & 5 at FLA 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−1.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:09TENN 4th & 5 at FLA 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:46TENN 4th & 7 at FLA 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:57FLA 4th & 11 at TENN 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:59TENN 4th & 23 at TENN 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:20FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:05TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:31TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:15FLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:21FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:04FLA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:39FLA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0711% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.4%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
89.3%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
89.2%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
89.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 40 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 5 yds to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:3389% → 89%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
89.1%
Emory Jones run for 12 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.1%
Malik Davis run for no gain to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+21
89.0%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the FLORIDA 48 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
89.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 16 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
88.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
88.8%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+5
88.6%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
88.5%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Tenn 5Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
88.4%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Tenn 4Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5911% → 13%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
88.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 15 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
88.5%
Jabari Small run for 16 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
88.2%
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 11
50
+3
88.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
86.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 47 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:5887% → 85%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.0%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
87.0%
Jones, Emory pass complete to Wells, Rick for 8 yards to the FLORIDA32, PENALTY TENNESSEE offside 5 yards to the FLORIDA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
86.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
86.9%
Emory Jones run for 13 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
87.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 48Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+10
86.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+13
86.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 13 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
86.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-2
86.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-5
85.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jean Delance) to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-5
85.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (Emory Jones) to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
85.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+47
85.1%
Jace Christmann 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0414% → 14%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
85.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
85.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+2
85.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
85.8%
Paxton Brooks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0385% → 84%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
85.1%
Malik Davis run for no gain to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
84.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 3 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+4
84.5%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 3
OWN 36
-5
84.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
83.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 58 yds, downed at the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 1:1715% → 19%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
84.7%
Tiyon Evans run for 3 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+8
84.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 8 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
84.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 3 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+75
80.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 75 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1681% → 80%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.7%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
80.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 11 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
81.3%
Emory Jones sacked by Ja'Quain Blakely for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+5
80.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
80.2%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
79.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Theo Jackson at the Tenn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1821% → 22%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
79.3%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+10
79.0%
Jalin Hyatt run for 10 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
78.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 2 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-1
77.9%
Jabari Small run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+3
78.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Paxton Brooks punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:2278% → 84%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
78.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
77.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
77.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 6 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
78.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 20 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
79.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Elijah Simmons) to the Tenn 23Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+23
84.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 23 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4218% → 17%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
82.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
82.1%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-3
82.4%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Zachary Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+30
82.9%
Paxton Brooks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the FLORIDA 30 TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jimmy Holiday) to the Fla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:0983% → 82%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
82.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jimmy Holiday) to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
83.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
82.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
82.5%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+17
81.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 17 yds Jacob Copeland fumbled, forced by Alontae Taylor, recovered by Tenn Aaron BeasleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:4919% → 24%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
80.7%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+14
80.2%
Jabari Small run for 14 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 5 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
78.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
80.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+22
80.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jabari Small for 22 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
77.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 18 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
76.2%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+47
76.3%
Chase McGrath 47 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2980% → 89%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
80.1%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+10
81.1%
Malik Davis run for 10 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
81.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 33 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
82.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 13 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
82.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 4 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
88.9%
Trent Whittemore pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 13 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15DOWNS
15 plays · 56 yds · 5:4113% → 13%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
87.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 10 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
87.4%
Tiyon Evans run for 8 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
86.8%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
87.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
86.9%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+11
86.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 11 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
86.1%
Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
86.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
86.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+7
87.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 7 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
85.3%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Gervon Dexter and Ty'Ron Hopper for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-1
86.1%
Tiyon Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 37Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+7
86.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 7 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
87.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:5688% → 96%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
88.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 13 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
89.1%
Emory Jones run for 24 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
89.4%
Pierce, Dameon rush for 7 yards to the TENNESSEE26, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Gouraige, Richard) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+11
89.2%
Emory Jones run for 11 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+6
89.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 6 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+8
89.0%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
89.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
89.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
96.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:185% → 4%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Tiyon Evans run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 12 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
95.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 9 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
95.2%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
95.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+6
95.6%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-5
95.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
96.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4997% → 97%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
96.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+49
96.8%
Emory Jones run for 49 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-2
97.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-5
97.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+6
97.0%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
96.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:583% → 3%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.8%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tiyon EvansSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
97.0%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
97.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 15 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.8%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
96.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 2 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Princely Umanmielen) to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
96.7%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 45 Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by Tenn Jacob Warren , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 17
OWN 45
-1
97.1%
Tiyon Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 18
OWN 44
-5
97.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 23
OWN 39
0
97.2%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Tiyon EvansSimilar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 23
OWN 39
0
97.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:2097% → 100%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.3%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
97.4%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
97.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 10 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.0%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+14
98.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
98.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 11 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
98.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 11 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.4%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
98.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+6
98.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the Tenn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.6%
Malik Davis 9 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 65 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.5%
Joe Milton III run for 6 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+37
99.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 37 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
99.4%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+17
99.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 17 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.4%
Joe Milton III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.4%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:21
Trent Whittemore pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 13 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q3 2:04
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 4:15
Nay'Quan Wright run for 23 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com