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ALA

Alabama 31 at Florida 29

FLA
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:04 · James Burnip punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior+0.0Home team on offense−31.6Score differential−5.4Garbage-time factor−12.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:20: Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +9.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:33: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +9.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:29: Emory Jones run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +19.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FG · Q4 9:25: Will Reichard 24 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +6.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:10: Dameon Pierce run for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FLA win probability +31.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:08FLA 4th & 6 at ALA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:07FLA 4th & 3 at ALA 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:35ALA 4th & 16 at ALA 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:41FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 29, down 18
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:45ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:21ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 31, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:35FLA 4th & 25 at FLA 37, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:20FLA 4th & 1 at ALA 3, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%−2.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−8.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:33ALA 4th & 1 at FLA 3, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−4.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−14.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:25ALA 4th & 6 at FLA 6, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−15.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:21FLA 4th & 2 at ALA 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−2.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:04ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−2.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:21ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:14ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:48ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:34FLA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:20FLA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:33ALA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:29FLA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:10FLA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    34.8%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2482% → 82%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
17.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 15 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
18.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trey Dean III) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
18.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 6 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
18.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-5
18.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 39Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+11
18.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 11 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
18.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 23 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
18.9%
Bryce Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 7Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
18.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:5219% → 21%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
18.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 2 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+8
18.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 8 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
18.9%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+20
19.0%
Malik Davis run for 20 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
19.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Malik DavisSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
19.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tim Smith) to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+21
19.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 21 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
19.8%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+5
19.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
20.1%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 2
OPP 4
-4
20.2%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
20.1%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
20.8%
Chris Howard 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4179% → 82%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
20.6%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
21.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kaiir Elam) to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
20.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 9 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+18
20.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 18 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
20.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+26
18.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 26 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5319% → 18%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
19.0%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
18.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
18.1%
Emory Jones pass intercepted Jalyn Armour-Davis return for 4 yds to the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:1581% → 87%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
18.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
18.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
18.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+10
18.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 10 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+15
18.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 15 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
18.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q1 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
12.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:2815% → 14%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
14.9%
Emory Jones run for 11 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
15.3%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
15.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+9
15.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 9 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
15.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
15.2%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+4
15.2%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
13.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:2588% → 87%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-12
12.5%
Bryce Young sacked by Gervon Dexter for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 31 ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bryce Young) to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
12.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
12.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
12.6%
James Burnip punt for 48 yds, downed at the Fla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4214% → 12%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
14.3%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+1
13.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+1
12.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
11.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4588% → 88%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
11.6%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
11.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
11.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
11.8%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:0113% → 19%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
12.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+30
12.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 30 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
13.9%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Trent WhittemoreSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
13.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+4
13.5%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+15
13.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Jobe) to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
18.8%
Malik Davis run for 26 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4982% → 82%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
17.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-3
17.8%
Bryce Young sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+7
18.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 7 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 5
OWN 31
-2
18.4%
James Burnip punt for 45 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:3517% → 17%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
17.1%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+26
17.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 26 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
18.1%
Emory Jones sacked by Phidarian Mathis for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 12
50
-7
17.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 47 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 19
OWN 43
-4
17.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 23
OWN 39
-2
16.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 25
OWN 37
0
17.0%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds, fair catch by JoJo Earle at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
15.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3518% → 28%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
17.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Jobe) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
18.6%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+10
19.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 10 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
19.4%
Malik Davis run for 9 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
20.3%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
20.1%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+15
20.1%
Malik Davis run for 15 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
20.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 5 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
20.2%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Alab 6Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
19.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
28.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:3775% → 86%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
25.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Evan Neal) to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+12
26.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 12 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
25.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
24.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 29 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
22.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+8
24.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brenton Cox Jr.) to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
22.9%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
22.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-5
22.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Tommy Brown) to the Fla 21Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
22.6%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+9
24.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 9 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
22.7%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
22.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+7
23.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 7 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
14.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 3:5616% → 36%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
16.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Keon ZippererSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
15.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Rick WellsSimilar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+18
15.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 18 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
16.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Rick WellsSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+30
16.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 30 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
17.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 16 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
19.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 11 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
18.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+5
17.5%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+18
17.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 18 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.1%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17FG
19 plays · 64 yds · 5:3575% → 86%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
25.2%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+18
24.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
50
+3
22.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
22.8%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+13
23.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Avery Helm) to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
21.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+3
21.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+7
21.1%
Bryce Young run for 7 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
21.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-6
20.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 4 yds to the Fla 10 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+8
20.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+10
21.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 10 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.4%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.7%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-5
19.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 6Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
13.7%
Will Reichard 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0517% → 49%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
16.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
17.9%
Emory Jones run for 14 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
20.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-2
17.7%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 17
OWN 45
-2
15.6%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 43 Emory Jones fumbled, recovered by Fla Emory JonesSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+17
13.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 17 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+2
15.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 2 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
17.2%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+2
18.8%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
18.7%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+7
17.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 7 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+7
17.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 7 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
48.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 2:5574% → 93%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
23.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
17.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
15.2%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
12.7%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
10.5%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
7.2%
James Burnip punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
13.8%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:10
Dameon Pierce run for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+31.3
TD · Q3 0:29
Emory Jones run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+19
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com