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NCSU

NC State 10 at Mississippi State 24

MSST
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:50 · Tucker Day punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Home team on offense+3.2Garbage-time factor+1.3Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Pregame prior−4.1Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:48: Christopher Dunn 48 yd FG MISSED — NCSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 12:46: Christopher Dunn 45 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +3.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:09: Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +1.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:59: Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) — MSST win probability +3.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:06: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 01:06 — MSST win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10NCSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:15NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:50MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48NCSU 4th & 6 at MSST 30, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:11MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:46NCSU 4th & 3 at MSST 27, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:18MSST 4th & 1 at NCSU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−1.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:39NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:27MSST 4th & 7 at NCSU 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:21NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:21NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:02NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:29MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 49, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:21NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:15MSST 4th & 22 at MSST 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−2.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:53NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:30MSST 4th & 10 at NCSU 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−5.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:29NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:59MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 44, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:33NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:13NCSU 4th & 21 at MSST 21, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−2.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:22MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:17NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:47MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 1:3255% → 54%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.4%
PENALTY MSU Offside (Young,Cameron) 5 yards from NCS25 to NCS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+9
45.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
45.4%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Gibson,Grant) 5 yards from NCS39 to NCS34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
45.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+8
45.4%
Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
45.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
46.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:5946% → 48%
Q1 14:47
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+8
45.5%
Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
45.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
47.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
46.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
48.2%
Tucker Day punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3INT
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:2352% → 49%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
50
+8
48.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
48.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
48.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
47.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+24
48.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 24 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
47.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
47.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.1%
Ricky Person Jr. pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3553% → 54%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
52.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
52.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
54.0%
Tucker Day punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:0247% → 48%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
53.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 13 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
52.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+2
52.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
53.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
51.7%
Christopher Dunn 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3753% → 54%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
53.2%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
53.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
52.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
53.6%
Tucker Day punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:2546% → 42%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
53.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+8
54.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
53.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 5 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
53.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 15 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
55.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
54.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+5
55.7%
PENALTY MSU Offside (Brule,Aaron) 5 yards from MSU39 to MSU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
54.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
54.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
54.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
54.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
57.7%
Christopher Dunn 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8DOWNS
17 plays · 43 yds · 6:2860% → 64%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
60.2%
Rogers,Will pass complete to Ducking,Caleb for 13 yards to the MSU47 (Moore,Isaiah; Wilson,Payton) PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation (Ducking,Caleb) 5 yards from MSU34 to MSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
59.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
60.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
60.6%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Lashley,Scott) 5 yards from MSU39 to MSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+16
59.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
50
+5
60.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
60.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
60.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
61.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
60.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
61.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
60.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
60.2%
Rogers,Will pass complete to Ducking,Caleb for 13 yards to the MSU47 (Moore,Isaiah; Wilson,Payton) PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation (Ducking,Caleb) 5 yards from MSU34 to MSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
64.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3938% → 35%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
62.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
62.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
63.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
63.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
64.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 4:3064% → 72%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
64.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
64.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+11
63.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
64.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
64.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+10
63.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
65.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 17 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
66.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
66.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
66.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
65.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+13
68.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
70.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
71.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:4831% → 30%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
68.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 7 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
68.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
69.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for no gain to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
70.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
70.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2174% → 72%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
50
0
73.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
50
-10
73.3%
Rogers,Will pass complete to Calvin,Jamire for 12 yards to the NCS38 (Harris,Jakeen) PENALTY MSU Holding (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 10 yards from MSU50 to MSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
50
-10
73.3%
Rogers,Will pass complete to Calvin,Jamire for 12 yards to the NCS38 (Harris,Jakeen) PENALTY MSU Holding (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 10 yards from MSU50 to MSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+15
72.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 15 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
70.1%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
70.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 13 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:1275% → 79%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
74.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+34
73.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 34 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
74.7%
PENALTY MSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NCS21 to NCS26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+5
74.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
74.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
73.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
74.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 6 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
74.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 6 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:5725% → 22%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 15 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
73.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
74.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
50
+1
72.3%
Devin Leary sacked by Aaron Odom for 0 yards to the NCSt 49 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Bryson Speas , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
73.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Zonovan KnightSimilar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
74.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 11
OWN 49
-5
75.7%
PENALTY NCS Delay Of Game 5 yards from NCS49 to NCS44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
78.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3378% → 78%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
78.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 11 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
79.5%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 5 yards from MSU40 to MSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+6
78.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
79.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
78.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
78.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
78.3%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0821% → 18%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
78.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-4
79.0%
PENALTY NCS False Start (McMahon,Dylan) 4 yards from NCS09 to NCS05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+6
79.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 6 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
79.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
79.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
82.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:0682% → 81%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
81.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+13
81.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
81.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
81.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
80.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-15
79.7%
PENALTY MSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 15 yards from NCS37 to MSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 22
OWN 48
0
81.0%
Tucker Day punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2219% → 16%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
81.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
83.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
83.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:2384% → 85%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
84.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 26 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
85.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
85.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
85.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 14 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
85.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
85.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
84.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
84.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
85.2%
Nolan McCord 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0116% → 13%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
82.2%
Devin Leary sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
85.2%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
87.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3086% → 89%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
86.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
86.6%
Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
85.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
85.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
88.5%
Tucker Day punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23DOWNS
15 plays · 44 yds · 3:4612% → 7%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
88.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 7 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
87.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for no gain to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
87.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for no gain to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+37
91.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 37 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
88.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
87.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-15
89.0%
PENALTY NCS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Ekwonu,Ikem) 15 yards from MSU33 to MSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 22
OPP 48
+38
90.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 38 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
87.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.0%
Devin Leary run for no gain to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
88.1%
PENALTY NCS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Pennix,Trent) 15 yards from MSU06 to MSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
0
89.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Christopher ToudleSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
-15
92.6%
Devin Leary sacked by Emmanuel Forbes for a loss of 15 yards to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5193% → 94%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
93.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
93.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+3
93.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-5
94.9%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Lawrence,Dylan) 5 yards from MSU40 to MSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
94.4%
Tucker Day punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:167% → 5%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
93.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 21 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
92.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 7
50
+3
91.7%
Devin Leary run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
91.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
91.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 37 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.0%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 4 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:464% → 3%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
50
0
96.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
50
-4
96.3%
Devin Leary sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
97.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Devin Leary pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
99.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:59
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)
+3.9
FG · Q2 12:46
Christopher Dunn 45 yd FG GOOD
+3
TD · Q2 1:09
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com