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FLA

Florida 42 at South Florida 20

USF
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:35 · Andrew Stokes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the SOUFLA 20 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Fla 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior−34.5Home team on offense−36.7Score differential−22.6Garbage-time factor−8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:36: Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 35 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:18: Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 41 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — FLA win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:41: Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:29: Anthony Richardson run for 80 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK) — FLA win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:22: Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +1.0 pts (now 1%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 11 of 11FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:01FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:32USF 4th & 11 at USF 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45USF 4th & 8 at FLA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:12USF 4th & 3 at FLA 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:20FLA 4th & 1 at USF 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:55USF 4th & 7 at USF 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:00USF 4th & 10 at USF 35, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:31FLA 4th & 10 at USF 37, up 32
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:35USF 4th & 4 at USF 39, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:50USF 4th & 5 at FLA 33, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:18USF 4th & 15 at FLA 15, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:28FLA 4th & 3 at USF 37, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:41USF 4th & 10 at USF 37, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:06FLA 4th & 1 at USF 1, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:43USF 4th & 8 at USF 47, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:22USF 4th & 4 at USF 41, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:08FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 15, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:06FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:34FLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:36FLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:18FLA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:41FLA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:41USF Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:29FLA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:22USF Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5495% → 95%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
4.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
4.7%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
4.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+3
4.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 57 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 3 yds to the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:225% → 5%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
5.0%
Darrian Felix run for 5 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-1
5.1%
Cade Fortin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-5
5.2%
Cade Fortin sacked by Jeremiah Moon for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
5.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:1695% → 95%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
5.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 20 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
5.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 16 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
5.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 20 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FG
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:156% → 8%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
5.5%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
5.5%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Latrell Williams for 7 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+1
5.6%
Darrian Felix run for 1 yd to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
5.7%
Xavier Weaver pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
5.8%
Brian Battie run for 8 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
5.8%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
5.9%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 38Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
6.1%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Bryce Miller for 6 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+8
6.2%
Darrian Felix run for 8 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
6.5%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Darrian Felix for 11 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
6.5%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Latrell Williams for 9 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+2
6.7%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Latrell Williams for 2 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
6.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 16 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
7.0%
Darrian Felix run for no gain to the Fla 10Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
7.0%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
7.0%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
7.5%
Spencer Shrader 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
6.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 75 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:137% → 7%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
6.5%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 24 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
6.7%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Latrell Williams for 4 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
6.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
6.7%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 6 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
6.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 5 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
7.2%
Darrian Felix run for 4 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-2
7.1%
Darrian Felix run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
7.1%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:2993% → 95%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
7.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
50
+3
7.0%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
7.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
7.1%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
7.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
7.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+7
7.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-5
7.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Richard Gouraige) to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+35
4.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 35 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:356% → 6%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.7%
Darrian Felix run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
5.7%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
5.7%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
5.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3295% → 98%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.0%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
4.9%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
4.9%
Anthony Richardson run for 18 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
4.7%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
4.7%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+41
2.4%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 41 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:002% → 2%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
1.6%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-3
1.6%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
1.6%
Cade Fortin pass intercepted Kaiir Elam return for no gain to the Fla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
2.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
2.3%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
1.7%
Emory Jones run for 33 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:302% → 1%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
2.1%
Darrian Felix run for 13 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
2.2%
Darrian Felix run for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
1.5%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-3
1.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Darrian Felix for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
1.4%
Andrew Stokes punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1698% → 99%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 10 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
1.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 13 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Thad Mangum) to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
1.6%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
1.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 9
OPP 36
-1
1.5%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
1.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+19
1.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Brenton Cox Jr.) to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.0%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
0.9%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+6
0.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+26
0.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the SOUFLA 20 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:1499% → 99%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for no gain to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
1.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 12 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
1.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Avery Helm) to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
1.5%
Timmy McClain run for 10 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
1.6%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
1.5%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+6
1.5%
Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
1.4%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Brian BattieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:3799% → 99%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
1.1%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 34Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+11
1.0%
Emory Jones run for 11 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
0.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 10 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-50
0.9%
Emory Jones pass intercepted Mekhi LaPointe return for 50 yds to the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:392% → 1%
Q3 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
1.7%
Timmy McClain run for no gain to the Fla 10Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
1.4%
Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-14
1.2%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 14 yards to the Fla 15 Timmy McClain fumbled, recovered by SFla Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
1.4%
Spencer Shrader 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:5899% → 99%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
1.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+15
1.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
1.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
1.0%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+9
0.9%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
1.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 9 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-38
0.8%
Emory Jones pass intercepted Brock Nichols return for 38 yds to the Fla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:231% → 3%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
1.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+23
1.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Sean Atkins for 23 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
1.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 8 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+11
0.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Sean Atkins for 11 yds to the Fla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0598% → 98%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
2.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
1.9%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+11
1.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 11 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
1.7%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
1.7%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+2
1.7%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
1.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:392% → 2%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.2%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
2.2%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
2.1%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
2.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:2999% → 98%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
1.5%
Anthony Richardson run for 8 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+9
1.5%
Anthony Richardson run for 9 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+36
1.5%
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 36 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
1.4%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.4%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
1.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 4 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.6%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Nick ElksnisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:182% → 2%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+44
1.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 44 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
1.7%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+3
1.6%
Darrian Felix run for 3 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+2
1.5%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
1.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
0.2%
Anthony Richardson run for 80 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.2%
Brian Battie run for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
0.2%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
0.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Darrian Felix for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Fenley Graham at the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
0.2%
Demarkcus Bowman run for no gain to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
0.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 8Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 15
OWN 8
+7
0.2%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 7 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+44
0.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 56 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 44 yds to the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:400% → 1%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
0.1%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
0.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
0.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Fla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
0.1%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 14 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:2799% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
0.6%
Demarkcus Bowman run for 26 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
0.5%
Demarkcus Bowman run for 7 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
0.4%
Lorenzo Lingard run for no gain to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+7
0.4%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
0.3%
Emory Jones sacked by Blake Green for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+1
0.3%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+12
0.3%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 12 yds to the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:36
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 35 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q2 9:18
Anthony Richardson pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 41 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q3 4:41
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com