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ULM

UL Monroe 15 at Arkansas State 48

ARST
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+41.5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:20: Josh Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK) — ULM win probability +1.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:21: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +2.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:21: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +4.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:03: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 66 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:45: Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Malik Jackson for 5 yds for a TD Hunt, Jeremy pass attempt failed, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Green, D.) 1 yards to the ASU2, NO PLAY. Timeout UL MONROE, clock 07:45 Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 07:45 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ULM win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:22ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:56ARST 4th & 7 at midfield, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:22ULM 4th & 6 at ARST 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:25ULM 4th & 3 at ARST 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:40ULM 4th & 15 at ARST 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:16ULM 4th & 7 at ARST 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:56ARST 4th & 9 at ULM 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:03ULM 4th & 23 at ULM 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:45ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 31, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:35ULM 4th & 8 at ARST 10, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50ARST 4th & 8 at ULM 24, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:50ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 22, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:37ULM 4th & 3 at ARST 43, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:12ARST 4th & 7 at ULM 25, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:12ULM 4th & 2 at ARST 43, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:04ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:20ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:22ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:21ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:21ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:03ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:45ULM Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:37ARST Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.5%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
91.5%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Josh Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
91.5%
Jeremy Hunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
91.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:1491% → 91%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
91.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 7 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
91.1%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
91.1%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
91.1%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
91.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+55
90.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Corey Rucker for 55 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) UL MONROE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:389% → 10%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
90.8%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 10 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
90.7%
Josh Johnson run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
90.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Malik Jackson for 27 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.6%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 98 yds · 3:5490% → 90%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
89.9%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Foreman, Jeff, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Newton, Josh) 15 yards to the ASU17, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
89.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+8
89.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+26
89.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 26 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
90.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
90.2%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+14
90.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 14 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
90.2%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+30
90.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 30 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) UL MONROE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
90.0%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for no gain to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
90.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jordan Carroll for 5 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
90.2%
Jeremy Hunt run for 5 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 41 yds, downed at the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
89.8%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+12
89.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jamal Jones for 12 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
90.1%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
50
0
90.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 7
50
0
89.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon Bowling, broken up by Zac GulleySimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 7
50
0
89.6%
Ryan Hanson pass incomplete to Javar Strong, broken up by Traveion WebsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
50
+4
88.6%
Isaiah Phillips run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
88.6%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Jevin FrettSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
88.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Jahquan Bloomfield, broken up by Elery AlexanderSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
89.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:0889% → 92%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+69
89.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 69 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
89.7%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
0
89.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+15
91.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
91.1%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
91.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
91.2%
Jeremy Hunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 7
OWN 9
0
91.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brandon Bowling at the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-32
92.0%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted Tre Odom return for 32 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 4:319% → 8%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
90.8%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
90.6%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
90.6%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Malik Jackson for 13 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.4%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
90.4%
Jeremy Hunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+7
90.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Malik Jackson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+3
91.1%
Jeremy Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
90.6%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Josh Pederson for 10 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
90.6%
Jeremy Hunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
90.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
91.0%
Jeremy Hunt run for no gain to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 15
OPP 18
0
91.4%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Jahquan BloomfieldSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+35
91.7%
Davis Hughes 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1992% → 96%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
92.1%
Marcel Murray run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
92.1%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
92.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+15
92.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
96.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
95.3%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+18
95.3%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jevin Frett for 18 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
95.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 20 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
94.8%
Isaiah Phillips run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
94.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
95.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Jordan CarrollSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 7
OPP 29
0
95.2%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Josh Pederson, broken up by Elery AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 2:4897% → 97%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
96.7%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
96.7%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+5
96.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, offside defense (Austin Hawley) to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
96.8%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+12
96.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 12 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
96.9%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
97.4%
Logan Bonner run for 2 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
97.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
97.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.2%
Kadyn Roach run for 8 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:5197% → 99%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
96.9%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+66
99.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 66 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.2%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.0%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
99.2%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 14 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
99.1%
Jeremy Hunt sacked by Caleb Bonner for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
99.2%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Isaiah PhillipsSimilar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 15
OWN 47
-8
99.2%
Jeremy Hunt sacked by Sosaia Tuitavake and Derrick Bean for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 23
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18SF
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:2999% → 99%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
99.4%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
99.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
98.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, intentional grounding (-9 Yards) to the ArkSt 0 for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:341% → 3%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
99.0%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Malik Jackson for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+7
99.0%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.1%
Jeremy Hunt run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.1%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.2%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Malik Jackson for 5 yds for a TD Hunt, Jeremy pass attempt failed, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Green, D.) 1 yards to the ASU2, NO PLAY. Timeout UL MONROE, clock 07:45 Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 07:45 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.1%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
97.9%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
97.9%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-2
98.0%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-6
97.9%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Traveion Webster for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
97.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 68 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
97.8%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 8 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+6
97.6%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
97.6%
Isaiah Phillips run for 8 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+39
97.5%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 39 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
97.2%
Isaiah Phillips run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-2
97.2%
Jeremy Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
97.4%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Jordan Carroll, broken up by Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+5
97.6%
Jeremy Hunt run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FG
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+69
98.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 69 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
98.9%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
99.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
99.3%
Blake Grupe 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Isaiah Phillips for no gain to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
99.0%
Jeremy Hunt sacked by Forrest Merrill for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Daniel Sparks punt, downed at the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 31 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Perry Carter Jr. run for 7 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Kadyn Roach run for 4 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
99.9%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Josh Pederson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Jeremy Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Jeremy Hunt run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+1
99.9%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Kadyn Roach for 1 yd to the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26FG
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Corey Rucker for 30 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
99.9%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
99.9%
Blake Grupe 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Garrett Kahmann run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
100.0%
Javin Myers run for 11 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
100.0%
Garrett Kahmann pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 10 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Javin Myers run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
100.0%
Garrett Kahmann run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+3
100.0%
Garrett Kahmann run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-5
100.0%
Garrett Kahmann sacked by Vidal Scott for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
100.0%
Josh Edwards run for 5 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
100.0%
Josh Edwards run for 4 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+8
100.0%
Josh Edwards run for 8 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
Josh Edwards run for 3 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
100.0%
Josh Edwards run for 6 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:21
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q3 14:03
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 66 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 14:21
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com