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NCSU

NC State 21 at Kentucky 23

UK
2020 · TaxSlayer Gator Bowl · Jan 2, 2021 · EverBank Stadium
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:02 · Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense+1.3Pregame prior+6.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:23: Chris Rodriguez Jr. 4 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick) — UK win probability +6.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:02: Matt Ruffolo 26 Yd Field Goal — UK win probability +6.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:56: C.J. Riley 9 Yd pass from Bailey Hockman (Christopher Dunn Kick) — NCSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:46: Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds for a TD — NCSU win probability +33.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +15.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 7:49UK 4th & 1 at NCSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:00UK 4th & 3 at NCSU 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:02UK 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:04NCSU 4th & 18 at NCSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:14UK 4th & 8 at UK 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:02NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:32NCSU 4th & 1 at UK 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−1.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:23NCSU 4th & 13 at UK 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:52NCSU 4th & 10 at UK 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:08UK 4th & 3 at UK 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:56NCSU 4th & 6 at UK 9, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:09UK 4th & 9 at NCSU 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:15NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 13, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:02UK 4th & 2 at NCSU 40, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−3.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:45UK 4th & 2 at NCSU 2, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−14.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:11UK 4th & 5 at UK 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 6:23UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:56NCSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:46NCSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:55UK Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 8:5559% → 60%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
58.9%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 10 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
58.9%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
59.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
59.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
59.2%
Terry Wilson run for 8 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+5
59.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
59.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-3
59.5%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+7
59.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 7 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
59.8%
Asim Rose Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+8
59.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 8 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
59.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
59.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
59.9%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
59.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+3
59.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 3 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
60.2%
Matt Ruffolo 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1640% → 40%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
60.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 9 yds Devin Carter fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+5
59.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 5 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.6%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-7
59.8%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Brandin Echols return for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1261% → 61%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
50
+12
61.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 12 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
61.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+6
61.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+5
61.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-2
60.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5140% → 39%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
60.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 15 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.1%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
59.4%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-9
59.8%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Jamin Davis and Joshua Paschal for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
61.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 51 yds , Josh Ali returns for no gain to the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:4660% → 59%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
60.0%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+11
60.0%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 11 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.2%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
60.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 3 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
59.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
60.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Keaton UpshawSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
60.3%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
59.9%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Akeem HayesSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
59.1%
Max Duffy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5740% → 40%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
60.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
59.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
60.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
59.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
59.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Dylan Autenrieth for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
59.1%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
60.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:3160% → 71%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
60.3%
Josh Ali run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+20
60.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 20 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
61.6%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+44
61.3%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 44 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
64.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 18 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. 4 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8MISSED FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 4:4831% → 28%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
69.5%
Jordan Houston run for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
68.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
67.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 2 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
67.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-5
68.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+19
69.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 19 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
67.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 8 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
66.6%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
67.7%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
69.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
67.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 13
OPP 23
0
68.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
70.0%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
71.9%
Christopher Dunn 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM Tyrell Ajian return for no gain to the Kent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 1:0972% → 80%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
72.4%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 31 yds to the NCSt 46 Asim Rose Jr. fumbled, recovered by Kent Asim Rose Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
74.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 17 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
74.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
74.9%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+23
75.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 23 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.8%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Keaton UpshawSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
74.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 8Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
80.6%
Matt Ruffolo 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-15
79.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
78.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 2:5822% → 20%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
77.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+18
78.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
50
+3
77.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
77.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
76.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
77.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
77.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
77.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
76.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 2 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-15
76.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie NC STATE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 23
OPP 38
+13
79.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to C.J. Riley for 13 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
80.3%
Christopher Dunn 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2683% → 82%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.8%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-2
83.4%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 13 yds to the Kent 41 KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
82.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
83.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 6 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-1
82.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Max Duffy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 5:5418% → 28%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
82.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to C.J. Riley for 16 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
80.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
80.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 11 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
79.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 5 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-5
79.1%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
80.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
79.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+20
80.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 20 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
79.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
79.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 4 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
80.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Trent Pennix for 1 yd to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
80.0%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the Kent 13Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
80.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
81.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Zonovan KnightSimilar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+9
71.7%
C.J. Riley 9 Yd pass from Bailey Hockman (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:3377% → 77%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
76.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+10
77.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 10 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
79.7%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
79.8%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-5
79.1%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+2
77.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
76.8%
Max Duffy punt for 39 yds, downed at the NCSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3025% → 20%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
75.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+6
76.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
76.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
79.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5883% → 85%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
83.4%
Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
83.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 8 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
84.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
85.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
85.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
86.1%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Bryce OliverSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
84.9%
Max Duffy punt for 27 yds, downed at the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
80.3%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Yusuf Corker return for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0087% → 91%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
87.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+7
87.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
88.1%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 27 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
88.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 2Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Bryce OliverSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
88.3%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 2Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
90.8%
Matt Ruffolo 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:2912% → 45%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+29
87.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 21 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing Passer (8 Yards) to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
88.5%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Phil Hoskins for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 13Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
55.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1972% → 71%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.7%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
72.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin RiggSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
71.0%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
70.5%
Max Duffy punt for 51 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 1 yd to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
66.4%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Jamin Davis return for 5 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
95.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:206% → 6%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
93.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 12 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
93.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+21
92.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 21 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
92.2%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Jordan Wright for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 40 Bailey Hockman fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ikem Ekwonu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+30
95.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 30 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.4%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
94.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 8 yds to the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24Uncategorized
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5988% → 95%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
88.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 11
50
-1
91.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-1
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:46
Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds for a TD
-33.4
TD · Q4 2:55
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q3 2:56
C.J. Riley 9 Yd pass from Bailey Hockman (Christopher Dunn Kick)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com