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ARST

Arkansas State 20 at Louisiana 27

UL
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Rhys Byrns punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the ArkSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior+26.5Home team on offense−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:38: Levi Lewis run for 33 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +11.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:56: Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 52 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK) — UL win probability +12.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:37: Jamal Jones run for 4 yds for a TD (Layne Hatcher intercepted ) — ARST win probability +20.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:24: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 47 yds for a TD Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 02:24 (Layne Hatcher pass to Jonathan Adams Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +44.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:13: Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +29.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at UL 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49ARST 4th & 3 at UL 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:49UL 4th & 17 at UL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:03ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:16UL 4th & 1 at UL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:27ARST 4th & 7 at UL 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00UL 4th & 9 at ARST 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:38ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 17, up 3
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:04UL 4th & 1 at UL 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.7%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:52ARST 4th & 1 at UL 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−1.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:37ARST 4th & 4 at UL 18, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:46UL 4th & 1 at ARST 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−9.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:28UL 4th & 5 at ARST 24, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:04ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:49ARST 4th & 8 at UL 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:56UL 4th & 6 at ARST 13, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−9.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:21UL 4th & 4 at ARST 18, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%−1.0
    79% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−19.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:15ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 49, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.8%−4.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:59UL 4th & 19 at ARST 26, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−4.8
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−10.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:57ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 13:38UL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:56UL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:24ARST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    29.2%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.9%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:13UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1MISSED FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 5:1116% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
83.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
83.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 9 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+9
83.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
83.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
83.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+3
83.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-5
83.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+15
83.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 15 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
83.8%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
83.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 24 yds to the LaLaf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
83.8%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
82.1%
Blake Grupe 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
82.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
82.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 4 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-12
82.2%
Lewis,Levi pass complete to Williams,Jalen for 12 yards to the LA37 (Brown, Jeffmario;Fletcher, Antonio), PENALTY LA pass interference (Lumpkin,Johnny) 12 yards to the LA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
82.1%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
82.1%
Rhys Byrns punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.4%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-2
81.3%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+1
81.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+10
81.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 33 yds , Eric Garror returns for 10 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
81.3%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
81.6%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
81.4%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
81.2%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:3220% → 22%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
79.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 9 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+3
79.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 3 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
79.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 8 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+8
79.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 8 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
79.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
79.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+5
79.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
79.7%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
79.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 1 yd to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
79.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jamal Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q1 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
77.6%
Blake Grupe 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
77.6%
LOUISIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:2778% → 77%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+28
77.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 28 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Peter LeBlancSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
78.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
78.3%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
77.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
76.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Roshauud PaulSimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
76.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
76.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Roshauud PaulSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
77.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 48 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 24 Eric Garror fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Eric Garror , return for no gain to the LaLaf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
76.6%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
76.6%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+7
75.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 7 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+2
76.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-28
76.7%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted Samy Johnson return for 28 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9FG
13 plays · 33 yds · 4:1526% → 33%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
73.9%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
73.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+11
74.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 11 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.7%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
73.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+9
74.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+5
74.5%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
71.8%
Logan Bonner sacked by Zi'Yon Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+5
72.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+6
72.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
67.1%
Blake Grupe 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10DOWNS
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:5170% → 66%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
70.2%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
71.4%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
71.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 2 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
71.3%
Trey Ragas run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
73.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Hunter Bergeron for 13 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
73.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+2
73.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+3
72.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+5
71.1%
Lewis,Levi pass incomplete to Lacy,Kyren, PENALTY ASU offside defense (Ayers, TW) 5 yards to the ASU7, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
73.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
65.6%
Dontae Fleming run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
63.7%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+13
62.9%
Jamal Jones run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:2264% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
63.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+29
63.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 29 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
78.4%
Levi Lewis run for 33 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
74.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+9
74.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-16
74.5%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted Eric Garror return for 16 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
77.5%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
77.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+8
76.9%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
78.0%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
78.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
77.1%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 5
OPP 24
0
75.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Chris Smith, broken up by Antonio FletcherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
73.0%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
72.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
72.5%
Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
71.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
72.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Leroy DeshazorSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
74.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:5473% → 87%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
73.0%
Lewis,Levi pass complete to Fleming,Dontae for loss of 2 yards to the LA24 (Green, Detravion), PENALTY ASU roughing passer (Merrill, Forrest) 15 yards to the LA41, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
74.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+52
87.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 52 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon Bowling, broken up by Andre RileySimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
83.6%
Ryan Graham run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
82.1%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
50
-5
81.5%
Logan Bonner sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+7
83.6%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
82.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Bralen TrahanSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
84.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 4 yds, downed at the LaLaf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3888% → 88%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
88.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 13 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
88.5%
Levi Lewis run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
88.5%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+8
87.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Trey Ragas for 8 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
88.7%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+8
88.7%
Chris Smith run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
88.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 8 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 2
OPP 9
0
88.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Peter LeBlanc, broken up by Booker FicklinSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-4
88.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
87.8%
Nate Snyder 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:1914% → 39%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
86.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+16
85.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
84.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
84.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
84.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Giles Amos for 3 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
83.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
84.0%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+8
84.3%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
82.6%
LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Tayland Humphrey) to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
82.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
82.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 4Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.4%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds for a TD (Layne Hatcher intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:0971% → 83%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
71.4%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+43
71.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 43 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
76.0%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 14
OPP 28
0
74.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Peter LeBlanc, broken up by CJ HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+10
72.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 10 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
83.2%
Kenneth Almendares 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0025% → 29%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
74.6%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Adams, Jonathan, PENALTY LA pass interference (Garner,Mekhi) 15 yards to the ASU28, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
73.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
72.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
71.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
71.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Roshauud Paul, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
72.1%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
71.2%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
71.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0787% → 93%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+32
87.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 47 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (O'Cyrus Torrence) to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
88.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
88.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-11
87.1%
Levi Lewis sacked by TW Ayers for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+43
92.5%
Kenneth Almendares 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 1:259% → 57%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
90.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+38
90.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 38 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
50
+3
87.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+47
43.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 47 yds for a TD Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 02:24 (Layne Hatcher pass to Jonathan Adams Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:0760% → 95%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
60.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+12
62.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 12 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
64.1%
Trey Ragas run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
65.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 5 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+21
65.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 21 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25INT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:1612% → 9%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 10 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
88.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
87.6%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete, QB hurry by Jones,Andre, PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass (Luebke, Wyatt) 5 yards to the ASU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
89.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Roshauud Paul, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
90.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 15
OWN 43
0
90.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed Tyler, broken up by Percy ButlerSimilar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
91.1%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted Mekhi Garner return for no gain to the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:24
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 47 yds for a TD Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 02:24 (Layne Hatcher pass to Jonathan Adams Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-44
TD · Q4 1:13
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+29.9
TD · Q4 10:37
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds for a TD (Layne Hatcher intercepted )
-20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com