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CARK

Central Arkansas 27 at Arkansas State 50

ARST
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+29.8Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:22: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +7.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:31: Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 23 yds for a TD (Hayden Ray KICK) — CARK win probability +10.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:29: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +8.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:40: Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +4.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:32: Marshun Douglas pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 31 yds for a TD (Hayden Ray KICK) — CARK win probability +6.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:53ARST 4th & 5 at CARK 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07CARK 4th & 6 at ARST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:07ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:46ARST 4th & 10 at CARK 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:42CARK 4th & 11 at CARK 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:00ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00CARK 4th & 4 at ARST 41, up 1
    Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:42ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:44CARK 4th & 6 at ARST 25, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 10:43ARST 4th & 3 at CARK 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:22ARST 4th & 4 at CARK 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:13CARK 4th & 17 at CARK 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:20CARK 4th & 1 at ARST 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:28ARST 4th & 24 at ARST 15, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:14CARK 4th & 8 at CARK 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:03ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 22, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:22ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:14ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:31CARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:29ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:40ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:19ARST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:29ARST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:32CARK Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:32CARK Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:14ARST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
87.4%
Kierre Crossley run for 1 yd to the CArk 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
87.4%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
87.4%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+13
87.4%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 46 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 13 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
87.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
87.1%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+12
87.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 12 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
87.2%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the CArk 39Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-1
87.2%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 40Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
87.2%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the CArk 35Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+8
87.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the CArk 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
87.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 19 yds to the CArk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
87.2%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the CArk 5Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
87.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
87.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+72
87.1%
Blake Grupe 22 yd FG MISSED , Dre Matthews return for 72 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 3FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2815% → 15%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
85.4%
Kierre Crossley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
85.4%
Kierre Crossley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
85.5%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
84.9%
Hayden Ray 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.9%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
85.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
85.0%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
84.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 64 yds, downed at the CArk 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 5SF
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2216% → 15%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
84.4%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-1
84.4%
Cameron Myers run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 1Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
84.7%
Breylin Smith run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY Breylin Smith fumbled, recovered by CArk Breylin Smith for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
84.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 11 yds to the CArk 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
84.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
84.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
84.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
83.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds, downed at the CArk 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:2016% → 16%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
84.1%
Kierre Crossley run for 1 yd to the CArk 3Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
83.8%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+22
84.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 22 yds to the CArk 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
83.6%
Breylin Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the CArk 17 Breylin Smith fumbled, recovered by CArk Kierre CrossleySimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
83.8%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete, broken up by JB BrownSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+7
83.6%
Kierre Crossley run for 7 yds to the CArk 24Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
83.8%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
82.3%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-10
82.8%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete, PENALTY ASU HL (Miner, Ethan) 10 yards to the ASU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
81.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+9
81.6%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
81.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 1:4818% → 19%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
81.9%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Vidal ScottSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
82.0%
Kierre Crossley run for 3 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+11
82.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 11 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.5%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
81.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 9 yds to the CArk 47Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+6
81.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.0%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
80.1%
Breylin Smith run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
80.1%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
80.6%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
79.5%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
79.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Steven Mackey Jr.Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
79.0%
Logan Bonner run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
79.0%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 11FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2822% → 23%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
77.6%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Cameron MyersSimilar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
77.8%
Cameron Myers run for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+4
78.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
76.9%
Hayden Ray 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:2177% → 82%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
76.9%
Marcel Murray run for 36 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
78.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete, broken up by Deandre LamontSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
78.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the CArk 35Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+3
78.6%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+3
77.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 3 yds to the CArk 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
79.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CArk 34Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+12
78.9%
Jamal Jones run for 12 yds to the CArk 22Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-2
79.2%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 24Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+9
78.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the CArk 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
79.2%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the CArk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.2%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the CArk 5Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
78.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the CArk 4Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 13INT TD
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:0819% → 15%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
81.3%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
81.5%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+13
82.0%
Breylin Smith run for 13 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
80.4%
Cameron Myers run for 1 yd to the CArk 40Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+15
80.6%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete, PENALTY ASU roughing passer (Ayers, TW) 15 yards to the ASU45, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
79.4%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
79.6%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-10
80.4%
Smith, Breylin rush for 12 yards to the ASU33 (Alexander, E.), PENALTY UCA HL (Hines, Sanderso) 10 yards to the UCA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+15
81.5%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Winningham, Luj, PENALTY ASU face mask (Lee, Quinton) 15 yards to the ASU40, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.5%
Breylin Smith pass intercepted for a TD Samy Johnson return for no gain for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.2%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
87.4%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
87.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 15 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
86.2%
Breylin Smith sacked by Quinton Lee for a loss of 7 yards to the CArk 45Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 17
OWN 45
0
87.6%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete, broken up by JB BrownSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
88.2%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.3%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23 Jamal Jones fumbled, forced by Logan Jessup, recovered by CArk Darin DavenportSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 16TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
78.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 23 yds for a TD (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 0:5880% → 89%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
80.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete, broken up by Dre MatthewsSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
79.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
80.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+34
81.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 34 yds to the CArk 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
82.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Roshauud PaulSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+3
81.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the CArk 24Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+9
80.5%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Adams, Jonathan, PENALTY UCA pass interference (Lamont, Deandre) 9 yards to the UCA15, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
88.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
87.4%
Kierre Crossley run for 21 yds to the CArk 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
86.4%
Breylin Smith sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 10 yards to the CArk 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2086% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
86.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 32 yds to the CArk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
87.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 24 yds to the CArk 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
87.4%
Logan Bonner run for 8 yds to the CArk 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+8
87.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the CArk 7 for a 1ST down CENTRAL ARK Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Dre Matthews) to the CArk 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 62 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
92.1%
Kierre Crossley run for 17 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.5%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
91.7%
Kierre Crossley run for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 39Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+15
92.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Mitchell Perkinson for 15 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
90.9%
Myles Kitt-Denton run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+29
91.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 29 yds Tyler Hudson fumbled, forced by Anthony Switzer, recovered by ArkSt Elery AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 2:4994% → 97%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+32
93.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 32 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
94.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Wyatt Luebke) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+2
93.9%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+24
93.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 24 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
94.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CArk 39Similar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+2
94.1%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 2 yds to the CArk 37Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+15
94.1%
Layne Hatcher run for 15 yds to the CArk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
97.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 22DOWNS
16 plays · 64 yds · 4:593% → 2%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.1%
Kierre Crossley run for 3 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+9
97.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 9 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Jack ShortSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
97.0%
Kierre Crossley run for 3 yds to the CArk 45Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+10
97.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 10 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
97.0%
Kierre Crossley run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+9
96.9%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
96.6%
Kierre Crossley run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+26
96.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Mitchell Perkinson for 26 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.7%
Breylin Smith run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.7%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.9%
Marshun Douglas run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 3:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
97.6%
Breylin Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 6 Breylin Smith fumbled, recovered by CArk Breylin SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 2:4899% → 100%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
98.7%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+65
98.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Giles Amos for 65 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
98.9%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the CArk 23Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+3
98.8%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 20 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 24TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:500% → 2%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.8%
Cameron Myers run for 4 yds to the CArk 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jack Short for 2 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+37
99.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 37 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
99.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Mitchell Perkinson for 18 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 2 yds for a TD (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 25TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:571% → 8%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Kierre Crossley for no gain to the CArk 47Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.7%
Kierre Crossley run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+16
98.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 16 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
92.5%
Marshun Douglas pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 31 yds for a TD (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-4
97.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 35 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Jonathan Adams Jr.) to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 14
OWN 25
-10
97.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by J.W. Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 24
OWN 15
+7
97.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 45 , Tyler Hudson returns for 7 yds to the CArk 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 27INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
95.4%
Breylin Smith sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 43Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+12
95.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 12 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
95.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Garrett Thomas for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+11
95.1%
Kierre Crossley run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-11
94.6%
Breylin Smith sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 21
OPP 38
-6
95.5%
Breylin Smith pass intercepted Antonio Fletcher return for 6 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:5098% → 100%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
98.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Leandre RucksSimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+1
98.2%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, offside defense (Logan Jessup) to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+13
98.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.5%
Dane Motley run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
98.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+56
99.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Corey Rucker for 56 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Cameron Myers run for no gain to the CArk 25Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Cameron Myers for 18 yds to the CArk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
99.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Cameron Myers for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 40Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+3
99.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Mitchell Perkinson for 3 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-4
99.4%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, substitution infraction (-4 Yards) to the CArk 39Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+6
99.4%
Cameron Myers run for 6 yds to the CArk 45Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:13100% → 100%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Coltin Clack pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Josh Edwards run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 69 yds, downed at the CArk 9Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Coltin Clack pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
99.7%
Kierre Crossley run for 4 yds to the CArk 13Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
99.6%
Marshun Douglas run for 5 yds to the CArk 18Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-1
99.6%
Marshun Douglas run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:31
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 23 yds for a TD (Hayden Ray KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 0:29
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q2 5:22
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com