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ARST

Arkansas State 17 at App State 45

APP
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2020 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:25 · Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+25.7Home team on offense+1.9Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:58: Zac Thomas pass complete to Mike Evans for 5 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:39: Chandler Staton 39 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +3.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:04: Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 16 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:08: Lincoln Pare run for 48 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +7.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:15: Zac Thomas run for 60 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:37ARST 4th & 21 at ARST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:22ARST 4th & 1 at APP 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:25ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:44APP 4th & 4 at ARST 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:17ARST 4th & 7 at APP 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:23ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:39APP 4th & 11 at ARST 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:03ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:36ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:10APP 4th & 7 at APP 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:36ARST 4th & 16 at APP 17, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:37ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:47APP 4th & 14 at APP 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:30ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:03APP 4th & 4 at APP 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:12ARST 4th & 14 at APP 40, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:31APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:26ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:05APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:58APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:04APP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:08ARST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:15APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:22APP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:2319% → 19%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
81.4%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+14
81.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 14 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.3%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
81.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Jonathan Adams Jr.) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
81.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-6
81.1%
Logan Bonner sacked by Caleb Spurlin for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 29 Logan Bonner fumbled, recovered by ArkStSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 21
OWN 29
+3
81.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds , Malik Williams returns for 3 yds to the AppSt 32 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 3:0481% → 82%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
81.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 4 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
80.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+21
80.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 21 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
80.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 12 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
80.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-5
80.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+46
81.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 46 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:3519% → 22%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
81.4%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+18
81.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 18 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+42
81.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 42 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
80.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
80.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the AppSt 19Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+8
80.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
81.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the AppSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
78.2%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1579% → 82%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
79.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kenneth Harris) to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
79.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+55
81.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 55 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:3519% → 19%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
81.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 15
OWN 10
0
81.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+26
81.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 11 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
80.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 13 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
80.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 9
50
-7
80.7%
Logan Bonner sacked by Trey Cobb for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 16
OWN 43
0
81.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
18 plays · 88 yds · 6:1281% → 86%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
80.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
80.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 17Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+5
80.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Zac Crosby for 5 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
80.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
80.5%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+11
80.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 11 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
80.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christan Horn for 14 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
81.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christan Horn for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
81.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
81.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+23
80.6%
Zac Thomas run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
81.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Milan Tucker for 8 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+1
81.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
81.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
81.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 7 Camerun Peoples fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by AppSt Camerun PeoplesSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
81.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
86.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Mike Evans for 5 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7INT
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:1415% → 16%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+39
85.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 39 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
83.9%
Jeff Foreman pass intercepted, touchback. D'Marco Jackson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.8%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Antonio Fletcher return for no gain to the AppSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4316% → 15%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
84.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 14 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
83.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+17
84.2%
Logan Bonner run for 17 yds to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
84.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 10 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
84.0%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 2Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
84.0%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 7Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
84.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
85.4%
Blake Grupe 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 53 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+53
86.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 53 yds to the ArkSt 27 Marcus Williams Jr. fumbled, recovered by ArkStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3714% → 14%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
86.2%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
86.1%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+5
86.5%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-14
86.5%
Javonis Isaac run for a loss of 14 yards to the ArkSt 21 Javonis Isaac fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by AppStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4188% → 91%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
88.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
88.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
87.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+39
90.8%
Chandler Staton 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1111% → 10%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-12
88.9%
Logan Bonner sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 12 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 22
OWN 15
+11
89.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jamal Jones for 11 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
89.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Roshauud PaulSimilar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:4692% → 96%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
91.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
91.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-4
92.0%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+7
91.9%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
92.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the ArkSt 37 Daetrich Harrington fumbled, recovered by AppStSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+26
92.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 26 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
92.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Noah Hannon) to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
96.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 16 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:246% → 5%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
94.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-10
94.2%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bowling, Brandon, PENALTY ARKST holding 10 yards to the ARKST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 18
OWN 24
0
94.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 18
OWN 24
+7
94.6%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
94.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:1696% → 96%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
96.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
96.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4695% → 95%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.4%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
95.3%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Davis, Dashaun, PENALTY ARKST offside 5 yards to the APPALCHAN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-3
95.2%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:245% → 4%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
94.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 11 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
95.2%
Logan Bonner run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
95.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Corey Rucker for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
95.4%
Logan Bonner run for 11 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
95.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 8 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+8
95.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Giles Amos for 8 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
95.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Shemar Jean-Charles) to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
95.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Roshauud PaulSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-6
95.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jamal Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 16
OPP 17
0
96.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+34
95.9%
Blake Grupe 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:534% → 4%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
95.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 42
-7
96.1%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Shaun Jolly for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 22
OWN 35
+7
96.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 7 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
96.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:3397% → 98%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
96.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
96.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+5
96.9%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
97.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
97.1%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKST offside 5 yards to the APPALCHAN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
97.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
96.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-5
97.7%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 14
OWN 43
+22
97.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the APPALCHAN 20 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:143% → 10%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
97.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 17 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
89.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 48 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4593% → 98%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
93.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christan Horn for 19 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.3%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-4
94.3%
Zac Thomas sacked by TW Ayers for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+60
98.4%
Zac Thomas run for 60 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23INT
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:082% → 1%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
98.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 14 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
98.3%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 1 yd to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
98.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+12
98.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 12 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
98.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the AppSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
98.4%
Isaiah Azubuike run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+13
98.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the AppSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-17
98.4%
Leroy Deshazor sacked by Jordon Earle for a loss of 17 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
+6
98.5%
Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-44
98.7%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted D'Marco Jackson return for 44 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:1199% → 100%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+16
98.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 16 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Zac Crosby for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+9
99.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
99.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 20 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 4
OWN 33
-7
99.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 26 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (9 Yards) to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
100.0%
Ryan Graham run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
100.0%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+36
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 36 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 15
OPP 41
-5
100.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+2
100.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 18
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+4
100.0%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
100.0%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:08
Lincoln Pare run for 48 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q2 10:58
Zac Thomas pass complete to Mike Evans for 5 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q3 0:15
Zac Thomas run for 60 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com