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ARK

Arkansas 35 at Florida 63

FLA
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:58 · Reid Bauer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+2.3Home team on offense+36.1Score differential+30.9Garbage-time factor+11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.1Blowout margin+17.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:17: Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 21 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +4.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:55: Trelon Smith run for 83 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +4.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:17: Kyle Trask pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 5 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:00: Rakeem Boyd run for 12 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +6.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:01: Emory Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:41FLA 4th & 1 at ARK 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:59FLA 4th & 1 at ARK 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:56ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.5%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:28ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:57ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:06FLA 4th & 24 at FLA 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:07ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 32, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 2:58ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 41, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:36FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:03ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:03FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:17FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:55ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:33FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:17FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:00ARK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:01FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:08FLA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:51ARK Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:41FLA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 0:40ARK Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:1788% → 87%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
87.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 12 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
87.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
87.2%
Kyle Trask run for no gain to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+14
87.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 14 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
87.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
86.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
86.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+8
86.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
86.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 3 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
86.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
86.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 1 yd to the Ark 11Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
85.7%
Kyle Trask run for 3 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
85.9%
Kadarius Toney run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 9Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 9 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2513% → 16%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
86.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
86.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 8 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
84.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 47 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:5885% → 84%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 13 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
84.7%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+31
84.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 31 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.9%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
84.9%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+12
84.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 12 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
83.9%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Malik DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:5917% → 18%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
83.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-7
83.0%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Ventrell Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+30
83.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 15 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kaiir Elam) to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
82.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
82.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+14
82.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 14 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
81.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:4584% → 85%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
83.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 1 yd to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
83.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
83.0%
Kyle Trask run for 5 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
83.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
83.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+8
82.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
82.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-4
82.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kadarius Toney for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+23
85.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 23 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:2616% → 15%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
84.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Treylon Burks) to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+6
84.6%
Treylon Burks run for 6 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
84.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-5
84.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Ricky Stromberg) to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+7
85.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 7 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
85.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds, downed at the Fla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:0385% → 90%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.8%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
84.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+43
85.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 43 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
89.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 21 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
84.4%
Trelon Smith run for 83 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1685% → 89%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
85.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
85.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
85.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 21 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
88.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 33 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2412% → 11%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
88.2%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+1
88.2%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-4
88.4%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Zachary Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
88.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 40 yds , Kadarius Toney returns for no gain to the Fla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:3489% → 96%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
89.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 12 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
89.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
89.3%
Kyle Trask run for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+21
89.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 21 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
89.8%
Malik Davis run for no gain to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
89.8%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Shorter, Justin, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Clark, Hudson) 9 yards to the ARKANSAS10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
89.8%
Kyle Trask run for 5 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 5 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:105% → 5%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
94.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 25 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:565% → 12%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
95.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 13 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
95.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
95.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 13 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
94.8%
Feleipe Franks run for 7 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
94.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-5
95.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Trelon Smith) to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+11
95.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
94.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 8 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
88.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 12 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:4791% → 91%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 10 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
91.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
91.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 9 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
91.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 9
50
-10
91.9%
Kyle Trask sacked by Eric Gregory for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 19
OWN 40
0
91.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 19
OWN 40
-5
90.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Donovan Stiner) to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 24
OWN 35
0
90.7%
Jacob Finn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5410% → 10%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
90.5%
Treylon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+8
90.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyson Morris for 8 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+2
90.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
90.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 51 yds, downed at the Fla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:0092% → 98%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
92.2%
Kyle Trask run for 4 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Julius Coates) to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
92.4%
Malik Davis run for 11 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
92.8%
Malik Davis run for 11 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
93.0%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Henderson, Xzavier, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Clark, Hudson) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
93.0%
Malik Davis run for no gain to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
93.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 12 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
93.4%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+9
93.5%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:382% → 2%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
97.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 8 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
97.6%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Blake KernSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.9%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
98.0%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Amari Burney for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:2499% → 100%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
98.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 12 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
98.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+30
98.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 30 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.9%
Kadarius Toney pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
98.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 14 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.9%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 11 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
99.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 5 yards Rakeem Boyd fumbled, recovered by Fla Zachary Carter , return for 35 yds (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
99.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 82 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:05100% → 100%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Rick WellsSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
99.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 12 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 12 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
99.9%
Emory Jones run for 11 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.9%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+9
99.9%
Trelon Smith run for 9 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
99.9%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Princely Umanmielen and Ty'Ron Hopper for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+2
100.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
100.0%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 4 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-9
100.0%
Anthony Richardson pass intercepted Jalen Catalon return for 9 yds to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.9%
T.J. Hammonds run for 9 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-1
99.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 15Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
100.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 12 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Anthony Richardson run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:00
Rakeem Boyd run for 12 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q2 0:17
Kyle Trask pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 5 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q3 3:01
Emory Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com