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FLA

Florida 51 at Ole Miss 35

MISS
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:58 · Mac Brown punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kadarius Toney at the Fla 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Home team on offense−33.3Pregame prior−10.9Score differential−18.5Garbage-time factor−11.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:10: Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 16 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +8.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:05: Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 16 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +6.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:19: Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 71 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +7.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:43: Jerrion Ealy run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +8.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:00: Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Corral pass to Jonathan Mingo for Two-Point Conversion) — MISS win probability +10.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 10:36MISS 4th & 3 at FLA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:23FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:29MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:54MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:30FLA 4th & 6 at MISS 37, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:21MISS 4th & 11 at FLA 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:06FLA 4th & 6 at MISS 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:58MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 27, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:54FLA 4th & 5 at MISS 5, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:48FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:43MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:50FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:04MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:10FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:05FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:19FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:43MISS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:00MISS Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:14FLA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:58MISS Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
16 plays · 52 yds · 4:1919% → 21%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
19.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
19.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to John Rhys PlumleeSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
19.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 6 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
19.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
20.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+8
20.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
20.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+15
20.7%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Drummond, Dontario, PENALTY FLORIDA Targeting (Davis, Shawn) 15 yards to the FLORIDA26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS. Davis ejected for Targeting.Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
21.1%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
21.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
21.1%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 3
OPP 19
-4
21.1%
Matt Corral sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 4:4279% → 80%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
20.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 9 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+13
20.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 13 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
21.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
21.2%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+18
21.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 18 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
21.3%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+3
21.4%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+15
21.6%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Pitts, Kyle, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Smith, Keidron) 15 yards to the OLEMISS19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
21.4%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
21.6%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+9
21.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 9 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
21.9%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
21.9%
Kyle Trask run for 3 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5721% → 26%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
21.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
21.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-11
20.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Ventrell Miller for a loss of 11 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 21
OWN 24
+2
20.8%
Tylan Knight run for 2 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+28
20.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 28 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
25.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 46 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
24.4%
Emory Jones pass intercepted A.J. Finley return for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5INT
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:4426% → 26%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
25.6%
Dontario Drummond pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 45 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
26.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-4
26.4%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Gervon Dexter return for 4 yds to the Fla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:2075% → 80%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
24.7%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+7
25.0%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+50
25.0%
Kadarius Toney run for 50 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
20.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 22 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4122% → 31%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.5%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
21.7%
Snoop Conner run for 17 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
22.5%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
22.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+11
21.7%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
23.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
23.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-5
23.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+17
22.9%
Matt Corral run for 17 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
24.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the Fla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
24.3%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
30.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 14 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3773% → 72%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
26.8%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
27.1%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
27.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+5
28.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
28.4%
Jacob Finn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4330% → 30%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
29.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
30.7%
Tylan Knight run for 1 yd to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
30.7%
Tylan Knight run for 7 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
30.5%
Tylan Knight run for 1 yd to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
30.2%
Mac Brown punt for 49 yds, downed at the Fla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:1071% → 81%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
28.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 14 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
28.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 12 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
27.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
27.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 15 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
27.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
28.2%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+8
28.7%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+16
28.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 16 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
27.1%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete to Pitts, Kyle, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Delance, Jean) 10 yards to the OLEMISS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+12
27.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 12 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
19.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 16 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5923% → 22%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
22.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
23.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
22.6%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
22.3%
Mac Brown punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Kadarius Toney at the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 1:4578% → 87%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
22.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Dameon PierceSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
22.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+1
21.9%
Kyle Trask run for 1 yd to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
21.9%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
22.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 15 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
20.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 21 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
19.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 19 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
12.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 16 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
15.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 17 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3785% → 92%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
7.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 71 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2410% → 18%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
9.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 57 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
17.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:0185% → 89%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
14.7%
Malik Davis run for 23 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
13.3%
Kyle Trask sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 46 Kyle Trask fumbled, forced by Sam Williams, recovered by Fla Kemore Gamble , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
13.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+13
13.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 13 yds Trent Whittemore fumbled, recovered by Fla for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
12.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Shorter) to the Fla 49Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+5
12.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
12.7%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+9
12.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 9 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+55
11.0%
Evan McPherson 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:5712% → 12%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
11.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 51 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
13.5%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-3
13.5%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-10
12.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 18
OPP 32
+7
12.0%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
12.1%
Luke Logan 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18FG
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:0790% → 96%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
10.4%
Emory Jones run for 22 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
9.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 30 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
8.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+5
8.8%
Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
8.5%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Kadarius ToneySimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
3.6%
Evan McPherson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:486% → 4%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
6.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
4.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
4.5%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
4.4%
Mac Brown punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kadarius Toney at the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:5697% → 98%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
3.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+6
2.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
2.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
2.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
2.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 25 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
2.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trent WhittemoreSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
2.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Keon Zipperer for 11 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
2.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
2.3%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Justin Shorter for 3 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trent WhittemoreSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
2.0%
Evan McPherson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:392% → 13%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
2.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+33
2.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 33 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
2.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 14 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
2.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 32 yds to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
12.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Corral pass to Jonathan Mingo for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4194% → 99%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
5.4%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
5.6%
Trask, Kyle pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS roughing passer (Sanogo, MoMo) 15 yards to the FLORIDA42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
5.0%
Kadarius Toney run for 5 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+14
4.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
4.7%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+8
4.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 8 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
4.4%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+7
4.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 7 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
3.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
0.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 17 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 4:021% → 4%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
0.9%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
0.9%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
0.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 5 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
0.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
0.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+7
1.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
0.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 9 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
1.1%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
1.1%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
1.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Kenny YeboahSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
1.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
1.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Tylan Knight for 1 yd to the Fla 11Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-10
0.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Mohamoud Diabate for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 21Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 19
OPP 21
+20
0.8%
Matt Corral run for 20 yds to the Fla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.7%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:382% → 1%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
2.1%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+10
2.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 10 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
2.5%
Matt Corral sacked by Tedarrell Slaton for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+31
1.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 31 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
1.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
1.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:00
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Corral pass to Jonathan Mingo for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.3
TD · Q2 3:10
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 16 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 13:43
Jerrion Ealy run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com