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MIA

Miami 44 at NC State 41

NCSU
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2020 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-18.9NCSU 58.7%Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 37 - HOME 41 · Q4 6:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:12 · Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior−3.0Home team on offense+2.6Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:17: Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +18.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:00: D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 17 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +21.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:45: Jose Borregales kickoff for 65 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 100 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +25.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:12: Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +18.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:43: D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 54 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +47.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:15MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:02MIA 4th & 22 at NCSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:35NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:35NCSU 4th & 12 at MIA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:49MIA 4th & 10 at NCSU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:26MIA 4th & 9 at NCSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−8.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:25MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:55NCSU 4th & 10 at MIA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:04MIA 4th & 11 at NCSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:31NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−4.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:12MIA 4th & 5 at NCSU 5, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−15.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:51NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−8.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:44NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:21MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:31NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:14MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:34MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:49NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:17NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:00MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:43MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−2.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:1123% → 25%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
23.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 8 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+7
23.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
23.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 9 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+1
23.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
23.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 33 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
25.0%
Thayer Thomas pass complete to Bailey Hockman for 31 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1475% → 75%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
25.0%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
25.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+42
25.9%
D'Eriq King run for 42 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
25.6%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+12
25.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 12 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
26.0%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 10Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+7
26.7%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the NCSt 6 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (Payton Wilson) to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4926% → 31%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
25.9%
Bailey Hockman run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
25.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
26.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jared Harrison-Hunte) to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
26.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+24
26.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 24 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
27.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 24 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
27.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
28.1%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
30.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 3:0670% → 72%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
30.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 4 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
30.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+6
30.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
31.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
31.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+15
31.3%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete, PENALTY NCSTATE roughing passer 15 yards to the MIAMI47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
30.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
31.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 9 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
30.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 5 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
31.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
27.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 39 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
28.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:5673% → 71%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-14
27.2%
Larry Hodges pass complete to D'Eriq King for 1 yd to the NCSt 34 MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 24
OPP 49
+2
28.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 2 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 22
OPP 47
0
28.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Cam'Ron HarrisSimilar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 22
OPP 47
0
29.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2530% → 29%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
29.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 13Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+2
29.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
29.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
29.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Gurvan Hall Jr. at the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:5671% → 76%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
29.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 11 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
28.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
28.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
28.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 7 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+11
28.6%
D'Eriq King run for 11 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
23.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 20 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:5025% → 29%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
25.6%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
26.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 11 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
26.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
27.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
28.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
28.2%
Bailey Hockman run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-6
27.6%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Jaelan Phillips for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
29.3%
Christopher Dunn 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:0470% → 72%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
29.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Will Mallory MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+15
29.8%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Wiggins, Dee, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Dunlap, Malik) 15 yards to the MIAMI22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
29.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 26 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
27.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-10
28.0%
King, D'Eriq rush for 14 yards to the NCSTATE37, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Clark, Jakai) 10 yards to the MIAMI39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+8
28.6%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+1
28.5%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3830% → 43%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
29.7%
Hockman, Bailey pass incomplete to Carter, Devin, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Blades Jr., Al) 10 yards to the NCSTATE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+40
30.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 40 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
33.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to C.J. Riley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-5
33.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Dylan McMahon) to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
34.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+9
33.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
34.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
34.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
42.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 9 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:5161% → 60%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
39.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 26 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
37.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
37.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
37.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
39.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 22 yds · 1:4840% → 43%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
40.1%
Bailey Hockman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
40.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaelan Phillips) to the NCSt 8Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+1
40.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 9Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+3
41.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
43.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+1
43.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
43.3%
Bailey Hockman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2457% → 63%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
42.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 1 yd to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+15
43.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 15 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
42.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 18 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
40.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 7 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+17
40.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 17 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
39.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 6 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-1
39.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 15Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-4
41.3%
D'Eriq King sacked by Terrell Dawkins for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
37.4%
Jose Borregales 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0341% → 68%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
41.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 11 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
43.9%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+5
43.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+34
43.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 34 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
48.4%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+14
48.9%
Bailey Hockman run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
49.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:0041% → 64%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
59.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremiah Payton for 12 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
59.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
58.7%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
59.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
58.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+39
57.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 39 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
35.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 17 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:1038% → 33%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
61.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 4 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-10
61.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cam'Ron Harris) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+15
63.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 15 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-9
61.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 27 Cam'Ron Harris fumbled, recovered by MiaFl D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
67.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds, downed at the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:2570% → 77%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
70.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
73.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
74.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+8
76.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 8 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
77.3%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to C.J. Riley, broken up by Al Blades Jr.Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
76.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
75.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 31
-5
75.5%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+53
76.9%
Christopher Dunn 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:3623% → 26%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.1%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
77.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
75.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
76.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
74.8%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
74.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+27
74.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 27 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
72.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-1
73.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
76.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
73.9%
Jose Borregales 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2480% → 78%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.7%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
79.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
78.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+1
78.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 42 yds , Gurvan Hall Jr. returns for 1 yd to the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:1326% → 41%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
74.2%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+28
73.7%
D'Eriq King run for 28 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
68.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 11 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
68.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 14 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
69.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
72.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 2Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.2%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
77.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
58.7%
Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0975% → 80%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 11 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
78.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
80.5%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-5
81.2%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Te'Cory Couch for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 14
OWN 32
-5
80.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 47 yds , Gurvan Hall Jr. returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:0728% → 82%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-8
72.1%
D'Eriq King sacked by Isaiah Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 8 NC STATE Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+35
72.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 35 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
67.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
66.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Dee Wiggins, broken up by Malik DunlapSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+54
18.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 54 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
29.4%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted DJ Ivey return for 6 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:5986% → 94%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
14.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
13.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+12
14.4%
D'Eriq King run for 12 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
8.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 12Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
6.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-1
6.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:43
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 54 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
-47.7
TD · Q3 4:45
Jose Borregales kickoff for 65 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 100 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+25.1
TD · Q3 5:00
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 17 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
-21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com