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NCSU

NC State 30 at Pittsburgh 29

PITT
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:47 · Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+29.3Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:11: Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD NC STATE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +18.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:52: Alex Kessman 42 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +7.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:16: Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 25 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +31.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:44: Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — PITT win probability +34.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:23: Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NCSU win probability +68.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10NCSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 5:47PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:20NCSU 4th & 6 at PITT 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:20PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:56PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:06NCSU 4th & 11 at PITT 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:50PITT 4th & 9 at NCSU 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:50NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:52PITT 4th & 4 at NCSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−1.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04PITT 4th & 7 at NCSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−9.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:51PITT 4th & 1 at NCSU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−12.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:45NCSU 4th & 11 at PITT 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−2.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:53PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:02NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.0%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:52PITT 4th & 8 at NCSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−13.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:51PITT 4th & 1 at NCSU 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−2.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−11.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:44NCSU 4th & 9 at PITT 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−3.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−6.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 14:32PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:11NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:56NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:11PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:16NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−2.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:44PITT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    83.0%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:23NCSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2884% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
83.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 75 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 6:2116% → 19%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
83.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
83.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (Rashad Weaver) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
83.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
83.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
83.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
83.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+11
83.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 11 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.6%
Thayer Thomas pass incomplete, broken up by Marquis WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-9
83.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 1 yd to the Pitt 34 NC STATE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+15
83.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas (Damar Hamlin), PENALTY UP pass interference (Damar Hamlin) 15 yards to the UP29, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
83.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 5 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
83.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
83.6%
Devin Leary run for 14 yds to the Pitt 5 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Ricky Person Jr.) to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
83.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
83.6%
Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
83.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 6 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2482% → 81%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.7%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
81.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
81.7%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete, broken up by Shyheim BattleSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
81.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
82.0%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
80.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:1819% → 22%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
80.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
80.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 8 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+7
80.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 7 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
80.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Calijah Kancey) to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
80.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
80.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (Calijah Kancey) to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+2
79.9%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
79.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to C.J. Riley, PENALTY UP pass interference (Marquis Williams) 15 yards to the UP26, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
79.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-8
79.7%
Devin Leary sacked by Phil Campbell III and Patrick Jones II for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+10
78.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 10 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
77.8%
Christopher Dunn 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
77.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
77.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
77.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:0423% → 30%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
77.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
77.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (SirVocea Dennis) to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+9
76.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 9 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
76.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 16 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
70.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 35 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
70.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete, broken up by Cecil PowellSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
70.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 2:3130% → 33%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
70.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete, broken up by Marquis WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
70.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 7 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+5
70.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (John Morgan) to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
69.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 12 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
69.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane, PENALTY UP pass interference (Marquis Williams) 15 yards to the UP40, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
69.4%
Porter Rooks rush for no gain to the UP40 (SirVocea Dennis), PENALTY ST holding (Jasiah Provillon) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 20
50
-5
70.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Keyon Lesane) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 25
OWN 45
+13
70.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+1
66.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
67.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:2664% → 67%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+45
64.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 45 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
66.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+20
66.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 20 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
66.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+2
66.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+9
63.3%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted by Jakeen Harris at the ST12, Jakeen Harris return to the UP0, PENALTY ST roughing passer (Joshua Pierre-Louis) 9 yards to the ST9, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
64.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
64.3%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
63.8%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
66.6%
Alex Kessman 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.2%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
65.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+25
66.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 41 , DJ Turner returns for 25 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FG
13 plays · 30 yds · 3:4867% → 65%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
67.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 9 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-3
67.3%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+7
66.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 7 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
68.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
68.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ Turner, broken up by Tanner IngleSimilar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
67.3%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
68.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+10
68.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 10 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-4
63.7%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
65.3%
Alex Kessman 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
64.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
64.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
65.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 19 , DJ Turner returns for 12 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 78 yds · 0:0064% → 66%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
64.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-2
64.2%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+12
62.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 12 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
64.7%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+7
64.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 7 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
66.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 32 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
69.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 27 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.4%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.4%
Daniel Carter run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
66.2%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:0039% → 42%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
60.7%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-1 Yards) to the NCSt 2Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 11
OWN 2
-1
60.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 1
+22
61.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 22 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+34
60.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 34 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
57.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
56.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-7
54.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
57.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
59.1%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
58.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
57.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
56.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 56 yds, downed at the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
55.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
55.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete, broken up by Patrick Jones IISimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
57.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
58.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Pitt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:5957% → 80%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
57.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre Tipton, broken up by Malik DunlapSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-6
56.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+10
54.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre Tipton, PENALTY ST holding (Cecil Powell) 10 yards to the UP31, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
57.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
60.2%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
59.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 21 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
61.2%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
58.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ Turner, broken up by Tanner IngleSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
57.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 13 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
61.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 23 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD NC STATE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 1:1124% → 23%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
75.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
75.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
74.2%
Devin Leary sacked by Devin Danielson for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+11
76.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 11 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
73.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
-5
75.9%
NC STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
77.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 50 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Pitt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:1577% → 88%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
77.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre TiptonSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+50
76.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 50 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
80.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 10 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
81.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, PENALTY UP holding (Carter Warren) 10 yards to the ST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+3
79.3%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+9
80.2%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
80.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
88.0%
Alex Kessman 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:3618% → 53%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
81.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
50
+10
78.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
77.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
75.8%
Devin Leary run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+15
77.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, QB hurry by SirVocea Dennis, PENALTY UP roughing passer (SirVocea Dennis) 15 yards to the UP19, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
75.8%
Thayer Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 16
OPP 25
0
78.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Dylan ParhamSimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+25
46.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 25 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:3257% → 95%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
61.3%
Vincent Davis run for 15 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
62.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre Tipton, QB hurry by Drake Thomas, PENALTY ST holding (Taiyon Palmer) 10 yards to the ST41, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
63.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
63.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+10
59.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 10 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
59.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
64.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 1 yd to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
64.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ Turner, broken up by Taiyon PalmerSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+13
61.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 13 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+8
64.5%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 8 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.1%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.5%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
64.5%
Vincent Davis rush for 4 yards to the ST12 (Drake Thomas), PENALTY ST substitution infraction 5 yards to the ST11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 1:2111% → 89%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
89.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 10 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
88.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+22
86.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 22 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
84.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-5
79.6%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Emeka Emezie) to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
84.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
86.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, broken up by Calijah KanceySimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+14
87.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 14 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
80.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Cary Angeline (Damar Hamlin), PENALTY UP holding (Brandon Hill) 10 yards to the UP13, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
11.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
32.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-Louis, broken up by Cecil PowellSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+28
31.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 28 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:23
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-68.6
TD · Q4 1:44
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+34.2
TD · Q4 8:16
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 25 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-31.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com