Try the model
NCSU

NC State 24 at Virginia Tech 45

VT
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Lane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—VT 63.9%Brian Johnson 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 12:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:13 · Brian Johnson 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+13.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:11: Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +4.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:22: Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:48: Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 15 yds for a TD VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Brian Johnson) to the NCSt 8 (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +11.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:42: Quincy Patterson II pass complete to James Mitchell for 16 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +5.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:18: Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 7 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:13VT 4th & 11 at NCSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:13NCSU 4th & 17 at NCSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:24VT 4th & 6 at VT 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56NCSU 4th & 5 at VT 49, down 17
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:48VT 4th & 1 at VT 31, up 17
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:11NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 6, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:50VT 4th & 27 at VT 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:55NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:35VT 4th & 11 at NCSU 12, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:54NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:22VT 4th & 14 at NCSU 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:33NCSU 4th & 8 at VT 49, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:36VT 4th & 4 at NCSU 45, up 20
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:26NCSU 4th & 4 at VT 41, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:56NCSU 4th & 3 at VT 29, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:30VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:11VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:22NCSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:48VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:42VT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:18NCSU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:56VT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:03NCSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:4764% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
63.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 31 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
63.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 16 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
63.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-2
63.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 11
OPP 29
0
63.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
63.9%
Brian Johnson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
64.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
64.0%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
64.1%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Justus Reed for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+11
64.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 57 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 11 yds to the VTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:2464% → 66%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
64.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for 22 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
64.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+37
66.4%
Khalil Herbert run for 37 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2234% → 34%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
65.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
65.9%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Divine Deablo return for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:5367% → 71%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
66.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 6 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+19
66.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 19 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
70.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 11 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
70.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
70.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-8
70.0%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Rayshard Ashby for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+6
70.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 55 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 6 yds to the VTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
72.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 19 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Khalil Herbert for no gain to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
72.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+1
72.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 1 yd to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
72.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0526% → 24%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
73.8%
Bailey Hockman run for 8 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
73.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+10
73.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 10 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
73.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
73.2%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
75.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
76.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
76.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 14 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
76.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
76.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 5 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
76.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
76.2%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 62 yds, downed at the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3422% → 21%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
78.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
78.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+2
78.8%
Bailey Hockman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 6
OWN 11
-5
78.5%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Drake Thomas) to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 11
OWN 6
+5
78.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 53 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 5 yds to the VTech 11 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brion Murray) to the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 0:1881% → 80%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-13
80.5%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Isaiah Moore for a loss of 13 yards to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 23
OWN 18
-1
80.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 24
OWN 17
+2
80.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 22
OWN 19
-5
79.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Divine Deablo) to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 27
OWN 14
+21
79.6%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 49 , Thayer Thomas returns for 21 yds to the VTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:5721% → 31%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
78.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 11 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
78.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+14
78.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 14 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
78.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
78.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
78.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 9 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3472% → 87%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.0%
Quincy Patterson II run for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
72.6%
Quincy Patterson II run for 2 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
72.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 6 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
74.2%
Quincy Patterson II run for 1 yd to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+33
73.3%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to James Mitchell for 33 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
74.5%
Quincy Patterson II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-7
74.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the NCSt 18 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+2
76.2%
Tre Turner run for 2 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+11
75.5%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 11 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
86.6%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 15 yds for a TD VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Brian Johnson) to the NCSt 8 (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5317% → 16%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.5%
Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
82.1%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
83.3%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+41
83.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VATECH 21 NC STATE Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the VTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 0:5387% → 94%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+51
87.1%
Tre Turner run for 51 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
87.7%
Quincy Patterson II run for 7 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+16
93.9%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to James Mitchell for 16 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:368% → 5%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
91.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 19 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
91.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 23 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
93.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 4 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
93.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+53
93.3%
Christopher Dunn 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
94.9%
NC STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17INT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.3%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin Carter, broken up by Armani ChatmanSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
91.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 10 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
90.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+16
90.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 16 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
90.6%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-5
91.1%
Bailey Hockman rush right for 5 yards to the VT47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ST illegal formation 5 yards to the ST43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+5
91.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+6
91.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 6 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-47
90.9%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Brion Murray return for 47 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5695% → 94%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
94.6%
Quincy Patterson II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
94.8%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-5
94.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Khalil Herbert) to the NCSt 12Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
94.8%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to James Mitchell, broken up by Tyler Baker-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
94.4%
Brian Johnson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:416% → 5%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
94.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
94.6%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Justus Reed for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-2
94.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 54 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 20 Tayvion Robinson fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:3995% → 99%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
95.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 23 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
95.3%
Braxton Burmeister run for 14 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Khalil HerbertSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
95.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Kaleb Smith, PENALTY ST pass interference (Devin Leary) 15 yards to the ST28, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
95.8%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+5
95.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-8
97.1%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Tyler Baker-Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+49
99.4%
Brian Johnson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:041% → 4%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 11 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-9
99.4%
Devin Leary sacked by DaShawn Crawford and Mario Kendricks for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+11
99.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 11 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+36
99.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 36 yds to the VTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
99.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the VTech 7Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
96.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 7 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:3696% → 98%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
96.5%
Jalen Holston run for 12 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
97.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 6 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
97.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
97.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
97.5%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 37 yds, downed at the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 42 yds · 2:003% → 2%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
97.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+3
97.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+7
97.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
98.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+17
98.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 17 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
98.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
98.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
98.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane (Brion Murray), PENALTY ST holding (Tyrone Riley) 10 yards to the ST43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+8
98.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 8 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+1
98.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+7
98.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 7 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 4
OPP 41
-9
98.2%
Devin Leary sacked by Dax Hollifield and Zion Debose for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 1:3099% → 100%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
50
+46
98.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Khalil Herbert for 46 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.8%
Quincy Patterson II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for 1 yd for a TD (Braxton Burmeister pass to Kaleb Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:530% → 1%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+37
99.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 37 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-9
99.9%
Devin Leary sacked by Eli Adams and Zion Debose for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 19
OPP 45
+9
99.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 9 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 7 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+6
99.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 6 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.8%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+14
99.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 14 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.8%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26Uncategorized
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.6%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+9
99.6%
Quincy Patterson II run for 9 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
99.6%
Jalen Holston run for 23 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
99.6%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
99.6%
Quincy Patterson II run for 8 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:48
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 15 yds for a TD VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Brian Johnson) to the NCSt 8 (Brian Johnson KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 7:22
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 0:42
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to James Mitchell for 16 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com