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USA

South Alabama 38 at Arkansas State 31

ARST
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:42 · Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+16.4Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:09: Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 25 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +11.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:39: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 42 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +17.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 0:34: Tanner McGee pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 37 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +25.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:03: Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +23.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:56: Tanner McGee pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 51 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +40.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 8 at USA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50USA 4th & 6 at USA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:24ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 32, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32USA 4th & 1 at ARST 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:42USA 4th & 2 at USA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:23ARST 4th & 3 at USA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−1.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:28USA 4th & 8 at ARST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:28ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.2%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:37USA 4th & 13 at USA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:49USA 4th & 5 at USA 45, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:11USA 4th & 11 at ARST 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:11ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:03ARST 4th & 2 at USA 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−16.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:37ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−3.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:52ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.9%−5.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:24USA 4th & 11 at ARST 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−12.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:16ARST 4th & 5 at USA 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−5.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−7.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:50ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:35USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:23USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:09ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:55ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:39USA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:34USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:03ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:56USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
71.9%
Kawaan Baker run for 5 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+9
71.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 9 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
71.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-1
71.9%
Desmond Trotter run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+1
71.9%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
71.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3172% → 73%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
71.5%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
71.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 14 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
71.6%
Jamal Jones run for 15 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
71.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 24 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
71.8%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
71.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+6
71.7%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
71.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
72.5%
Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
72.4%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
72.5%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Trent TyreSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
72.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 56 yds, downed at the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:0873% → 73%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
72.8%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+12
72.8%
Jamal Jones run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
72.9%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-5
72.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+12
72.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 12 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-1
73.5%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
73.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:5727% → 33%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
73.1%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
73.1%
Carlos Davis run for 6 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+6
72.9%
Carlos Davis run for 6 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
72.8%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-6
72.9%
Desmond Trotter run for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+15
73.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 15 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
72.8%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
72.3%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+41
72.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 41 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3570% → 69%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.8%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
69.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
69.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
68.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds, downed at the SAlab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:1932% → 41%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
68.0%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
68.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 3 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
67.9%
Trotter,Desmond pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen (Johnson, Samy), PENALTY ASU offside defense (Bonner, Caleb) 5 yards to the USA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
67.3%
Jared Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+2
68.2%
Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
67.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 12 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
67.0%
Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+14
67.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 14 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
59.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 26 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
62.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 8 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+15
63.3%
Ryan Graham run for 15 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
63.8%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
63.7%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+4
63.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
62.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jamal JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:2941% → 46%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
59.1%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+16
59.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Trent Tyre for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
50
+12
57.7%
Kawaan Baker run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
57.6%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+5
58.0%
Jared Wilson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+9
57.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 9 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
57.3%
Jared Wilson run for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
57.4%
Trotter,Desmond pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY ASU offside defense (Strong, Javar) 5 yards to the ASU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-3
57.3%
Kawaan Baker run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
57.9%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Cade SutherlandSimilar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
54.5%
Diego Guajardo 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1956% → 71%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 12 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
56.6%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
56.5%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
57.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Davyn FlenordSimilar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
57.0%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
58.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 7 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+19
59.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 19 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
70.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 25 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:3237% → 37%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
63.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 7 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
61.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds Jalen Wayne fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.0%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
61.7%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-1
62.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
63.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 0:3165% → 73%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
65.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 15 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
65.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 11 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
67.7%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Foreman, Jeff, PENALTY ASU illegal formation 5 yards to the ASU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+43
66.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 43 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+35
72.7%
Blake Grupe 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5969% → 82%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
69.0%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+17
68.7%
Jamal Jones run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
70.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 32 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
72.2%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-1
72.2%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+5
71.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 5 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
72.2%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-2
72.2%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
82.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:1019% → 36%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
80.9%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Terry Hampton for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+15
81.3%
Caullin Lacy run for 15 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
80.6%
Carlos Davis run for 11 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.8%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
80.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 5 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
79.7%
Caullin Lacy run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+13
81.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 13 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
63.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 42 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2536% → 32%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
64.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 25 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
62.1%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
62.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-6
63.6%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Forrest Merrill for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+48
67.7%
Diego Guajardo 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
69.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Chris Henderson for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+7
68.9%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+2
68.4%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
67.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds, downed at the SAlab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:3832% → 62%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
68.5%
Tanner McGee run for 2 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
68.5%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+18
70.0%
Tanner McGee pass complete to Carlos Davis for 18 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
65.1%
Caullin Lacy run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
64.4%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+37
38.5%
Tanner McGee pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 37 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:2446% → 73%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
46.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Jacob Still) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+15
45.2%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Adams, Jonathan (Rockette, Devin), PENALTY USA pass interference (Rockette, Devin) 15 yards to the ASU39, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
47.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+37
47.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 37 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
52.5%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+4
52.5%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
52.5%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the SAlab 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+7
52.5%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
50.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
73.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:1233% → 32%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
67.5%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+26
65.2%
Tanner McGee pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 26 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
62.6%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
62.2%
Tanner McGee pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+4
64.0%
Tanner McGee run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
62.2%
Tanner McGee pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-7
62.6%
Tanner McGee run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 17
OPP 25
+7
68.5%
Tanner McGee run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 16 Tanner McGee fumbled, forced by Samy Johnson, recovered by ArkSt Forrest MerrillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
74.9%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
75.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
73.2%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
72.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:5933% → 76%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.5%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
65.2%
Tanner McGee pass incomplete to Jalen Wayne, broken up by Kenneth HarrisSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
65.9%
Tanner McGee pass complete to Trent Tyre for 7 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
64.3%
Caullin Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+51
24.3%
Tanner McGee pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 51 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
34.1%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
36.9%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
35.7%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
33.2%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23FG
11 plays · 19 yds · 1:5683% → 95%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
16.7%
Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
16.7%
Jared Wilson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+15
13.9%
McGee, Tanner pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen (Harris, Kenneth), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Harris, Kenneth) 15 yards to the ASU11, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
13.2%
Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
11.6%
Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-4
12.5%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+30
5.5%
Diego Guajardo 30 yd FG GOOD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 62 yds · 1:0811% → 14%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
11.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
12.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
50
-1
13.9%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
12.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+29
11.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 29 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
20.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
17.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman, broken up by Keith GallmonSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+11
15.4%
Layne Hatcher run for 11 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
20.9%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
18.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
15.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jamal JonesSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 5
OPP 6
-7
14.4%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jeremiah Littles for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:56
Tanner McGee pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 51 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-40
TD · Q3 0:34
Tanner McGee pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 37 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-25.8
TD · Q4 12:03
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+23.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com