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ARST

Arkansas State 45 at Texas State 47

TXST
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:59 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior−5.3Home team on offense+3.1Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:16: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +18.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:39: Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 5 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +24.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 7:01: Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +31.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:43: Jamal Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +51.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:34: Calvin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller PAT MISSED) — TXST win probability +52.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:17ARST 4th & 10 at TXST 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28TXST 4th & 7 at ARST 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:47ARST 4th & 12 at TXST 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 18, up 7
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:58ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.3%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:11TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:23ARST 4th & 1 at TXST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:41ARST 4th & 2 at TXST 32, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%−2.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:59TXST 4th & 28 at TXST 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−4.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:47TXST 4th & 4 at ARST 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−12.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:59ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:09ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:19TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:59ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:52TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:56TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:04ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:16ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:18ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:50ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:39TXST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:01TXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.9
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:43ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:34TXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3538% → 40%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.6%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
37.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 20 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
38.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+1
38.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+16
38.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 16 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+7
38.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
39.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 40 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5561% → 58%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
39.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 16 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
39.5%
Jamal Jones run for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
39.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
39.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+5
40.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+5
41.2%
Logan Bonner run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 10
OPP 48
+17
41.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 33 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 17 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:3142% → 44%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
42.0%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+15
42.6%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKST pass interference 15 yards to the ARKST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
42.8%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+21
43.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 21 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
43.6%
Jeremiah Haydel run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 17
OPP 33
0
43.7%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 17
OPP 33
+10
43.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 10 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
44.2%
Seth Keller 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:3256% → 54%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
43.9%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+56
44.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 56 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
43.5%
Jamal Jones run for 14 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
43.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
43.9%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-5
44.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
45.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
45.8%
Blake Grupe 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0746% → 46%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
46.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 7 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+2
46.4%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
46.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
45.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 52 yds, downed at the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:2354% → 59%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jamal JonesSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
46.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
47.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
47.2%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
46.8%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+14
46.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Bubba Ogbebor for 14 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+27
46.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 27 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
45.8%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+3
46.3%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
41.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:4245% → 53%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
44.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 10 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
45.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 19 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
53.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 47 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:0249% → 48%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
51.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 16 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
50.7%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
51.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+2
51.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Nico Ezidore for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 35 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by TexSt Markeveon Coleman , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:1055% → 64%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
55.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 21 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
64.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3438% → 47%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
61.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 22 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
61.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
61.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+20
62.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 20 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
60.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+12
62.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Bubba Ogbebor for 12 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
61.3%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
61.9%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
62.9%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
62.6%
Marcel Murray run for 8 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
63.1%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3359% → 58%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
58.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
60.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
59.4%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-2
58.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 38 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:4341% → 60%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
59.0%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
59.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 10
OWN 9
-4
60.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-4 Yards) to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 14
OWN 5
+22
60.9%
Jamal Jones run for 22 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
59.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Giles Amos for 21 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
57.2%
Ryan Graham run for 5 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
57.0%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
57.0%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
56.7%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
58.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Giles Amos for 5 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+30
40.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0649% → 56%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
51.2%
Calvin Hill run for 13 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
50.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 22 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+48
56.1%
Seth Keller 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:0448% → 49%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.6%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+29
50.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 29 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
48.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
48.7%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
48.5%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+49
51.0%
Blake Grupe 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 2:2955% → 53%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
54.5%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
54.2%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
54.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 6 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
56.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
56.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-18
54.7%
Brady McBride sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 18 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 28
OWN 25
0
53.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 1:2746% → 59%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
54.0%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+2
55.1%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+84
41.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 84 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 67 yds · 3:1141% → 40%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
40.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 4 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
39.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 6 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
40.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
40.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 12 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
43.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+23
43.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 23 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
46.0%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+15
46.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
46.1%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 5:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
45.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
42.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 5:3066% → 85%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
34.5%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+13
34.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.1%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
31.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 17 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
29.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
28.6%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
26.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+5
28.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 5 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
26.5%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
26.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+20
28.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 20 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
25.8%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
15.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Giles Amos for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:5418% → 44%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
17.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
17.4%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+8
17.5%
Brady McBride run for 8 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
17.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
18.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 34 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 5 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:1270% → 69%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
29.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
28.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
28.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to TW Ayers for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
26.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
28.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+11
30.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 11 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:4436% → 74%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
35.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 9 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+18
38.2%
Brady McBride run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
41.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jacoby Hopkins for 7 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
41.3%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
40.5%
Jaylen Gipson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
43.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for 15 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
43.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+15
74.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:0238% → 92%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.0%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
63.0%
Jamal Jones run for 19 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
57.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 6 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+1
56.4%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+3
56.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Giles Amos for 3 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
57.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
58.2%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+23
58.8%
Logan Bonner run for 23 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
57.6%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
57.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
62.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.5%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.6%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:5130% → 92%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
29.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
28.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+10
26.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 10 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
28.1%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+17
36.6%
Calvin Hill run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
36.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 11 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.0%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:2528% → 20%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
72.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
74.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 2 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
76.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
77.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
79.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:34
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller PAT MISSED)
+52.2
TD · Q4 1:43
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-51.8
TD · Q4 7:01
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
+31
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com