2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreULM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:48 · Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Josh Pederson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:46: Perry Carter Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK) — ULM win probability +2.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:19: Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 18 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:03: Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 50 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK) — ULM win probability +3.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:27: Destin Coates run for 1 yd for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:41: Kadyn Roach run for 19 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes PAT MISSED) — ULM win probability +2.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 12:34ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%average punt
- Q1 11:37GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it87.9%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snapGo for it89.3%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.6%average punt
- Q2 14:47ULM 4th & 18 at ULM 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it10.4%−1.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q2 12:35GAST 4th & 1 at ULM 20, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.6%71% to convertField goal88.8%−0.875% to makePunt86.4%−3.2average punt
- Q2 6:03GAST 4th & 3 at midfield, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:13ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, down 28Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−0.257% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 13:35GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 22, up 28Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:27ULM 4th & 5 at GAST 34, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%42% to convertField goal1.2%−0.147% to makePunt1.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 2:58GAST 4th & 1 at ULM 3, up 22Close callKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%63% to convertField goalTheir call97.2%−0.793% to makePunt95.4%−2.5average punt
- Q4 14:48ULM 4th & 12 at GAST 39, down 18Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%−0.224% to convertField goal3.7%−<0.136% to makePunt3.7%average punt
- Q4 6:44ULM 4th & 1 at GAST 39, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%70% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.136% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:22GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 41, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q4 2:40ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 41, down 18Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 12:34GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:44GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:16GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:46ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.7%97% to makeGo for two10.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:19GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:08GAST Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:03ULM Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.2%97% to makeGo for two5.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:27GAST Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:41ULM Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call3.1%97% to makeGo for two3.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55ULM Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.7%97% to makeGo for two2.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:58GAST Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:44ULM Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.7%−0.197% to makeGo for two1.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASTDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2688% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
87.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 57 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+8
87.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 8 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 4 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q1 11:37
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
87.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 45 yds , Colby Suits returns for no gain to the LaMon 37 Colby Suits fumbled, forced by Jamyest Williams, recovered by GeoSt Seth GlausierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD6 plays · 37 yds · 1:4888% → 89%
Q1 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
87.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 4 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5FUMBLE4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+15
88.1%
Suits, Colby pass incomplete to Bloomfield, Jah, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 15 yards to the ULM31, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
88.0%
Colby Suits sacked by Hardrick Willis for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 28 Colby Suits fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Dontae Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5189% → 91%
Q1 5:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3010% → 13%
Q1 5:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+23
90.3%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jordan Carroll for 23 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
90.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Malik Jackson for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
90.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Jordan Carroll, broken up by Bryquice BrownSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+28
90.2%
Jeremy Hunt run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Antavious Lane) to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
89.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Josh Pederson for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
89.9%
Hunt, Jeremy pass incomplete to Pederson, Josh (Jones, Jaylon), PENALTY GSU pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 2 yards to the GSU2, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:4689% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
GASTDrive 10TD12 plays · 60 yds · 3:1690% → 95%
Q2 12:35
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
89.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
89.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Matlin Marshall for 8 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
89.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Destin Coates, broken up by Tyler GlassSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
94.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 18 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11INT3 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
GASTDrive 12TD2 plays · 35 yds · 0:2695% → 97%
ULMDrive 13TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:053% → 7%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.6%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 11 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+13
96.4%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Josh Pederson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
50
+50
93.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 50 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD12 plays · 78 yds · 4:3695% → 99%
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
95.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for no gain to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+16
95.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 16 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+19
95.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 19 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+7
95.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15END OF HALF9 plays · 36 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
98.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Kadyn Roach for 6 yds to the LaMon 31 UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (-17 Yards) to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+3
98.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 3 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+16
98.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Kadyn Roach for 16 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+14
98.6%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jevin Frett for 14 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
99.0%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jordan Carroll for 14 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.8%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Jordan Carroll, broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+56
98.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 43 yds, downed at the GEORGIAST 26 GEORGIA ST Penalty, tripping (13 Yards) to the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
ULMDrive 18TD9 plays · 67 yds · 3:461% → 4%
Q3 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
99.2%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Javin Myers for 9 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
99.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 17 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
99.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Malik Jackson for 3 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+15
98.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 15 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19FG15 plays · 72 yds · 5:4397% → 99%
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
97.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 14 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
97.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
97.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
97.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Aubry Payne for 4 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+10
97.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 10 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:033% → 6%
GASTDrive 21FUMBLE2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 37 Tucker Gregg fumbled, forced by Seth Mason, recovered by LaMon Keilos SwinneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 4%
GASTDrive 23TD7 plays · 61 yds · 3:2498% → 100%
Q4 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
97.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jaquez Pennimon for 5 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:141% → 3%
Q4 9:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+24
99.1%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 24 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.0%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Josh Pederson for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
99.0%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jevin Frett for 6 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+39
96.7%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK) GEORGIA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT11 plays · 16 yds · 2:2298% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26END OF GAME11 plays · 37 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
98.6%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Javin Myers for 2 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+12
98.6%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jordan Carroll for 12 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+13
98.5%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 13 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
98.5%
Jeremy Hunt sacked by Thomas Gore for a loss of 9 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 19
OWN 33
-3
99.5%
Jeremy Hunt sacked by Jhi'Shawn Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 22
OWN 30
+11
99.5%
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 11 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+11
99.5%
Jeremy Hunt pass incomplete to Josh Pederson, broken up by Antavious Lane for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Jhi'Shawn Taylor) to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:19
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 18 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q2 1:27
Destin Coates run for 1 yd for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q2 6:03
Jeremy Hunt pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 50 yds for a TD (Davis Hughes KICK)
-3.3