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TROY

Troy 38 at Arkansas State 10

ARST
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:53 · Jack Martin punt for 33 yds , Brandon Bowling returns for no gain to the ArkSt 11 Brandon Bowling fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Brandon Bowling
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−31.4Score differential−15.7Pregame prior+4.6Garbage-time factor−5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:39: Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 34 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +4.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:07: Evan Legassey 35 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +5.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:41: Jacob Free run for 6 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +13.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:53: B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 14 — TROY win probability +9.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:55: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +9.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:35ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15TROY 4th & 4 at ARST 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:40ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:39ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 2 at ARST 2, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−7.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:10ARST 4th & 21 at TROY 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:07TROY 4th & 17 at ARST 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:28ARST 4th & 9 at TROY 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:57ARST 4th & 16 at TROY 35, down 21
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:53TROY 4th & 4 at ARST 43, up 21
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−1.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:55TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−4.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:50ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 12 at ARST 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:01ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:05TROY 4th & 12 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:28ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:26TROY 4th & 1 at ARST 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:35TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:39TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:41TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:55ARST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:26TROY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:2539% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
61.0%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
61.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 15 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
61.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
61.0%
Jacob Free pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
61.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 4 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
61.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 18 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
59.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 29 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.1%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
60.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
60.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jamal Jones for 1 yd to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
59.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, downed at the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
59.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+22
59.3%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 22 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
59.1%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 6 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
59.1%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Anthony SwitzerSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
59.2%
Jacob Free pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
59.4%
Kyle Coale punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
59.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+7
59.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
59.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
59.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
59.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
58.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:1942% → 47%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
58.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 21 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
57.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
57.4%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+16
57.5%
Jacob Free pass complete to Khalil McClain for 16 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
57.3%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+4
57.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+34
52.6%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 34 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
54.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
54.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete, broken up by Jayden McDonaldSimilar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
54.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Giles Amos for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
54.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 7 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
54.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
54.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Dell PettusSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
54.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7DOWNS
15 plays · 83 yds · 4:0348% → 53%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
51.7%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
51.7%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
51.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to B.J. Smith for 5 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
51.5%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
51.5%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+15
51.8%
Free, Jacob pass incomplete to Johnson, Tez, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Herring-Wilson) 15 yards to the TROY42, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
51.0%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+51
51.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 51 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
50.9%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
50.9%
Jacob Free run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
51.1%
Free, Jacob pass incomplete to Geiger, Kaylon (Green, D.), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Green, D.) 1 yards to the ASU2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
46.8%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
47.1%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
47.5%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 4:3647% → 47%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
47.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+37
47.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Giles Amos for 37 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
48.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
48.8%
Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
49.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+27
49.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 27 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
49.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
49.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
49.0%
TROY Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
49.4%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-15
49.4%
Hatcher, Layne rush for 4 yards to the TROY6 (Robertson, K.J.), PENALTY ASU personal foul (Horst, Jarrett) 15 yards to the TROY25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 24
OPP 25
+3
49.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 3 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 21
OPP 22
0
48.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete, broken up by Kyle NixonSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 21
OPP 22
+39
46.5%
Blake Grupe 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0354% → 60%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
45.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+42
45.6%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 42 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
45.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
45.2%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Jamontez WoodsSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
45.5%
Jacob Free sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
39.7%
Evan Legassey 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10MISSED FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 4:3840% → 37%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
39.5%
Bonner, Logan pass complete to Bowling, B. for 3 yards to the ASU14 (Spralling, Shon), PENALTY TROY offside defense 5 yards to the ASU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 5
OWN 16
0
39.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon Bowling, broken up by Carlton MartialSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+12
39.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
39.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
40.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
41.5%
TROY Penalty, HL (Terence Dunlap) to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
41.8%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 7
50
+8
41.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
41.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
41.9%
Ryan Graham run for 1 yd to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+8
41.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jamal Jones for 8 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
42.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Giles Amos, broken up by Darrell StarlingSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
42.3%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
41.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
36.9%
Blake Grupe 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Will CholohSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 1:4766% → 84%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
34.5%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tez Johnson for 13 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
33.5%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 11 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
33.5%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
33.4%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
30.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 4 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+6
30.2%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 6 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
29.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 8 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
16.5%
Jacob Free run for 6 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
22.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
22.5%
TROY Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
23.2%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
22.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 11 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
24.0%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+12
24.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 12 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
24.5%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+5
24.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+8
24.3%
Logan Bonner run for 8 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
25.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-10
25.1%
Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Adams, Jonathan (Starling, D.), PENALTY ASU HL (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the TROY35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 16
OPP 35
0
24.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for no gain to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 16
OPP 35
0
23.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Anthony Switzer, broken up by Terence DunlapSimilar
Q3 14:57
4TH & 16
OPP 35
0
23.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 48 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
13.1%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
13.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.0%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
13.0%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+8
13.4%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 8 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
12.9%
TROY Penalty, clipping (Jake Andrews) to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+3
13.1%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+20
13.1%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 20 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+13
12.7%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 13 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
12.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+1
12.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
12.4%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
13.1%
Jack Martin punt for 33 yds , Brandon Bowling returns for no gain to the ArkSt 11 Brandon Bowling fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Brandon BowlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:239% → 25%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
9.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+49
9.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 49 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+35
10.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 35 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
15.4%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
18.6%
Jacob Free sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+11
19.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 11 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-11
18.0%
Jacob Free sacked by TW Ayers for a loss of 11 yards to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
19.7%
Jack Martin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
19.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jamal JonesSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
19.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to TW AyersSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+3
18.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
18.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5084% → 85%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
15.9%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
15.4%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 8 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
14.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+8
14.8%
B.J. Smith run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
13.1%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
13.1%
Jacob Free pass complete to B.J. Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
13.5%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
14.8%
Jack Martin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
15.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 14 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
16.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-10
16.3%
Hatcher, Layne rush for 1 yard to the ASU27, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU HL (Ramirez, E.) 10 yards to the ASU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 17
OWN 16
0
15.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 17
OWN 16
+7
15.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 7 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
15.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
10.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
9.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 13 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
9.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
9.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+8
10.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 8 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-5
9.7%
Jacob Free sacked by Terry Hampton for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 12
50
0
10.9%
Jack Martin punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArkSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:419% → 3%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
9.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+4
9.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
9.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 11 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
9.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
9.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Terence DunlapSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+20
2.5%
Logan Bonner sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 9 yards Logan Bonner fumbled, recovered by Troy Darrell Starling , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
2.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
2.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 9 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
2.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 13 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
2.5%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
2.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
2.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jamal JonesSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
2.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
13 plays · 41 yds · 5:2599% → 100%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
1.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
1.0%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+9
0.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
0.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
0.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+6
0.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
0.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
0.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
0.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+8
0.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Anthony Switzer for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:41
Jacob Free run for 6 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
-13.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 10:53
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 14
-9.9
TD · Q3 4:55
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com