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ARST

Arkansas State 23 at Coastal Carolina 52

CCU
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:58 · Charles Ouverson punt for 40 yds, downed at the ArkSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Home team on offense+36.0Score differential+28.8Garbage-time factor+12.1Pregame prior−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+13.3Blowout margin+12.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:04: CJ Marable run for 12 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +7.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:58: Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +11.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:57: Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +14.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:05: Blake Grupe 42 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +4.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:29: Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +6.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:43CCU 4th & 17 at CCU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:49CCU 4th & 12 at ARST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:30ARST 4th & 15 at CCU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:28CCU 4th & 4 at ARST 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:45ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:36CCU 4th & 1 at ARST 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−2.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:06ARST 4th & 6 at CCU 49, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:37ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:05ARST 4th & 6 at CCU 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−6.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:23ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:12ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 42, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:58CCU 4th & 5 at ARST 45, up 29
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:38ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:26CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:30ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:04CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:58CCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:57CCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:29CCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:16CCU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:07ARST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:12CCU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.3%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.3%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
42.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
42.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, downed at the CCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
42.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 13 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
42.8%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 39Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+7
42.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 7 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-11
42.8%
Grayson McCall sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 11 yards to the CCaro 35Similar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
42.6%
Charles Ouverson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
43.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 6 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+2
43.4%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
43.3%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
43.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
43.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
43.5%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted D'Jordan Strong return for no gain to the CCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
44.1%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
44.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Greg Latushko for 14 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.5%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
44.4%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
44.0%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
43.6%
Charles Ouverson punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 4:1156% → 60%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
43.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+7
43.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 7 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+7
43.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+35
43.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 35 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
40.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 33 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
45.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 72 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:5055% → 54%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
44.8%
Isaiah Azubuike run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+52
44.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 52 yds to the CCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
43.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
43.6%
Isaiah Azubuike run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 23Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 11
OPP 23
-4
44.0%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Tarron Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 27 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+44
45.7%
Blake Grupe 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
45.6%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 27 Grayson McCall fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Forrest MerrillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:5256% → 61%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
43.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jamal JonesSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
43.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 6 yds to the CCaro 21Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+21
39.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2641% → 50%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
40.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 20 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
41.6%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
41.7%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 5
50
+11
41.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
42.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+13
42.7%
Grayson McCall run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
42.7%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to CJ MarableSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
42.7%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+2
42.0%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
49.8%
CJ Marable run for 12 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3550% → 50%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
49.8%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
49.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 3 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
49.1%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon Heiligh, broken up by Jeffmario BrownSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
49.7%
Massimo Biscardi 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4351% → 50%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
48.7%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
47.5%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
47.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+52
49.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds, downed at the COASTALCAR 12 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Jaivon Heiligh) to the CCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13TD
21 plays · 94 yds · 8:3850% → 70%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
49.5%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 7Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+16
49.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Denmark for 16 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
49.8%
Grayson McCall run for 6 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
50.1%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+4
49.5%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.0%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
51.4%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
50.9%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
51.6%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
51.2%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Greg LatushkoSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
49.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Denmark for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+3
50.5%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
52.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Denmark for 23 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
52.5%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+8
58.7%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
58.7%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
58.9%
McCall, G. pass incomplete to Brown, K., PENALTY ASU pass interference (Herring-Wilson) 6 yards to the ASU2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
58.9%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0031% → 35%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
68.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
68.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
50
+5
65.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 5 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-3
65.3%
Logan Bonner sacked by Tarron Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD
17 plays · 83 yds · 7:5767% → 90%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
67.4%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+24
67.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 24 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
68.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 13 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
69.2%
CJ Marable run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
69.3%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+9
69.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
69.5%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
69.5%
Shermari Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+8
68.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
69.5%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+4
69.4%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
73.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Jeffmario Brown) to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+4
73.8%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
74.9%
Reese White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
85.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
84.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+9
85.0%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-15
84.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu Green ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jarrett Horst) to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 25
OWN 37
+4
86.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 4 yds Jamal Jones fumbled, forced by Rolan Wooden II, recovered by CCaro Brayden MattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
90.5%
CJ Marable run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
90.5%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-10
90.2%
Marable, CJ rush for 5 yards to the ASU30, out-of-bounds (Brown, J.), PENALTY CCU holding (Lampkin, W.) 10 yards to the ASU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 13
OPP 45
-21
90.0%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted Anthony Switzer return for 21 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
88.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
88.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Derick BushSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+5
88.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 5 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+1
88.3%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the CCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
91.8%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
91.7%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+11
91.5%
Reese White run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 30 Reese White fumbled, forced by Anthony Switzer, recovered by ArkSt Samy JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:3210% → 14%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
90.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
90.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 4 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
90.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+17
90.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to TW Ayers for 17 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
89.6%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete, PENALTY CCU roughing passer (Brewer, C.) 15 yards to the CCU29, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
88.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 34Similar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+4
88.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 4 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
90.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+5
91.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 5 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
86.3%
Blake Grupe 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3092% → 99%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
91.8%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Kameron BrownSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+17
91.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Greg Latushko for 17 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
92.4%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 43Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
91.9%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Kameron Brown, broken up by Elery AlexanderSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+47
91.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 47 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
92.4%
Shermari Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jamal Jones for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
98.4%
Logan Bonner sacked by Jeffrey Gunter for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
98.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:2099% → 100%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.2%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 8
50
+27
99.2%
CJ Marable run for 27 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.2%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
99.4%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Shermari Jones run for 15 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:040% → 1%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Roshauud Paul, broken up by KJ Johnson IISimilar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Leroy Deshazor for 7 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+22
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 22 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Roshauud PaulSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 44 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.6%
Baden Pinson run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 35 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Javan Hawes for 17 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Lincoln Pare for no gain to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Javan Hawes, broken up by Kendricks Gladney Jr.Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Bubba OgbeborSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Logan Bonner run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Baden Pinson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Baden Pinson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-1
99.9%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Charles Ouverson punt for 40 yds, downed at the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
100.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+1
100.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:57
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q2 0:58
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 12:04
CJ Marable run for 12 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com