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ECU

East Carolina 29 at Georgia State 49

GAST
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:02 · Jonn Young punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.2Pregame prior−10.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:19: Cornelious Brown pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 22 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +6.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:45: Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +10.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:26: Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +14.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:05: Jake Verity 48 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +4.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:12: Holton Ahlers pass intercepted for a TD Antavious Lane return for 34 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +4.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:30ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:02ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19ECU 4th & 14 at GAST 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:20GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:18ECU 4th & 17 at ECU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:44ECU 4th & 10 at GAST 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:44GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ECU 4th & 11 at GAST 23, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ECU 4th & 21 at ECU 5, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:22ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 8, down 22
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:31GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 44, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:46ECU 4th & 2 at GAST 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:54GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 42, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:05ECU 4th & 9 at GAST 31, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 42, up 19
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:30ECU 4th & 14 at GAST 31, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:07GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 46, up 19
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:33GAST 4th & 2 at ECU 26, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−3.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:33ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:54ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:30GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:02GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 7:19GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:45GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:26GAST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:12GAST Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:30ECU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:23GAST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.4%
Cornelious Brown pass intercepted for a TD Warren Saba return for no gain for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2439% → 40%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
39.4%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
39.4%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+43
39.4%
Terrance Dixon run for 43 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
39.4%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
40.1%
Destin Coates run for 13 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
39.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 7 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 21
0
39.9%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+2
39.9%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 23
-5
40.0%
YOUNG, Jonn punt 47 yards to the GSU30, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ECU false start 5 yards to the ECU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
40.0%
Jonn Young punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:2341% → 43%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
40.8%
Destin Coates run for 23 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
42.7%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 38 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
42.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
42.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Antavious LaneSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
42.4%
Jonn Young punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:0743% → 49%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
42.9%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+11
43.0%
Destin Coates run for 11 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.1%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
43.1%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+7
43.0%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Aubry Payne for 7 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
43.2%
Cornelious Brown run for 5 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-2
43.2%
Cornelious Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+13
43.0%
Brown, C. pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam (FLEMING, Malik), PENALTY ECU pass interference (FLEMING, Malik) 13 yards to the ECU20, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
43.2%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+22
49.3%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 22 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
47.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 1 yd to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
47.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for no gain to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+31
48.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 31 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
47.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-6
46.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 14
OPP 40
0
47.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
48.0%
Jonn Young punt for 31 yds, downed at the GeoSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
52.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Pat Bartlett) to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+4
52.0%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
51.9%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 9 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
51.8%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 1
OWN 18
-5
51.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+9
51.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 53 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 9 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
52.4%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-1
52.6%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-5
52.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Fernando Frye) to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
53.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Jacorey CrawfordSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
53.3%
Jonn Young punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:0356% → 72%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
56.1%
Brown, C. pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam, PENALTY ECU pass interference (McMILLIAN, Ja'Q) 15 yards to the GSU38, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+42
56.8%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 42 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
57.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
58.2%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+11
57.7%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 11 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
58.2%
Brown, C. rush for 4 yards to the ECU3 (BERRY, Myles), PENALTY ECU IS 4 yards to the ECU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
58.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the ECaro 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
58.2%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 4Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
72.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Chris Willis) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:0129% → 32%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.1%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
71.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 6 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
70.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 13 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
70.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 3 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+14
70.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 14 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
69.9%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for no gain to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
70.2%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY GSU pass interference (Gore, Tyler) 13 yards to the GSU25, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
69.1%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to LEWIS, Jeremy, PENALTY ECU holding (MALOVIC, Bailey) 10 yards to the GSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+2
69.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 18
OPP 33
+15
70.1%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY GSU pass interference (White, Quavian) 15 yards to the GSU18, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
69.0%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+4
69.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
70.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+34
68.4%
Jake Verity 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.3%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
71.3%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
70.7%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Jireh WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
69.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
68.5%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted - Stephensmcqueen return for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:3771% → 85%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.4%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+26
71.3%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 26 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
71.1%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
71.1%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
85.3%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:2626% → 13%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
74.5%
Chase Hayden run for 9 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+7
72.3%
Chase Hayden run for 7 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
73.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 4 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
72.3%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+8
73.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 8 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
72.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 12 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
71.8%
Chase Hayden run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
70.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+11
72.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
70.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
69.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-5
71.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Quavian White for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
87.1%
Jake Verity 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
86.8%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
86.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-13
87.1%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Thomas Gore for a loss of 13 yards to the ECaro 5Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 5
0
87.4%
Jonn Young punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the ECaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
90.5%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
90.5%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+8
90.3%
Terrance Dixon run for 8 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.5%
Cornelious Brown pass intercepted Ja'Quan McMillian return for no gain to the ECaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
89.7%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 1Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
89.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+7
89.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 7 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
89.8%
Jonn Young punt for 42 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
92.5%
Destin Coates run for 5 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
92.5%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-3
92.3%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 32 Destin Coates fumbled, forced by Jireh Wilson, recovered by ECaro Xavier Smith , return for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jeremy LewisSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
91.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-5
91.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+15
91.9%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J. (Jones, Jaylon), PENALTY GSU pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 15 yards to the ECU42, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
91.3%
AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to OMOTOSHO, Audie, PENALTY GSU roughing passer (Clark, Jeffery) 15 yards to the GSU43, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Darius Pinnix Jr.Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
91.2%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Quavian White return for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
93.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+17
93.5%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 17 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-5
93.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
93.7%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 5
OWN 49
-5
93.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (Michael Hayes) to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
93.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
93.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
93.6%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+23
93.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 23 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-3
93.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Jontrey Hunter for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+9
93.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 9 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
93.7%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
96.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
96.0%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
95.9%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Aubry Payne, broken up by Xavier SmithSimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+18
95.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the GEORGIAST 25 GEORGIA ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:495% → 8%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
94.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+17
94.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 17 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
94.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jeremy Lewis for 11 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
94.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 8 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 2
OPP 24
-10
96.2%
AHLERS, Holton rush for 7 yards to the GSU17, out-of-bounds (McCray, Herman), PENALTY ECU holding (JONES, Avery) 10 yards to the GSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+3
96.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
91.7%
Jake Verity 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0595% → 95%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.3%
Cornelious Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 23 Cornelious Brown fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Cornelious BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
95.2%
Cornelious Brown run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.6%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
95.5%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 6 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
95.6%
Cornelious Brown pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
95.2%
Michael Hayes punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-34
99.5%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted for a TD Antavious Lane return for 34 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:421% → 5%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+12
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 12 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 17 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-4
99.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Thomas Gore and Quavian White for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
99.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+31
95.1%
Tyler Snead run for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28PUNT TD
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2397% → 95%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.1%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
97.2%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
97.3%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
97.4%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 41 Destin Coates fumbled, forced by Immanuel Hickman, recovered by GeoSt Pat BartlettSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
97.3%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 5 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+29
94.9%
Michael Hayes punt blocked by Blake Proehl blocked by Blake Proehl Blake Proehl return for 29 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:3495% → 97%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.7%
Cornelious Brown run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
95.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+27
95.2%
Terrance Dixon run for 27 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
95.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
95.4%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
95.3%
Cornelious Brown run for no gain to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
96.5%
Noel Ruiz 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 30DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
93.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jeremy Lewis for 4 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
92.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
92.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
92.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
92.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
93.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 31TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:3898% → 100%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
97.6%
Brown, C. pass intercepted by FLEMING, Malik at the ECU11, FLEMING, Malik return to the ECU11, PENALTY ECU offside defense (HICKMAN, I.) 5 yards to the ECU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
97.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
97.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+23
97.5%
Destin Coates run for 23 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
97.6%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the ECaro 6Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
97.6%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the ECaro 5Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Destin Coates run for 5 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 32END OF GAME
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:151% → 1%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
99.4%
Mason Garcia run for 10 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:26
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
+14.2
TD · Q2 12:45
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q1 7:19
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 22 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com