2019 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2019 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:46 · Aubry Payne run for no gain to the Wyom 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:35: Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 8 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +3.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:32: Levi Williams pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 51 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +7.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:12: Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +9.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:43: Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 44 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +10.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:21: Levi Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +8.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
- Q1 9:01WYO 4th & 9 at GAST 36, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snapGo for it63.1%32% to convertField goalTheir call63.1%−<0.142% to makePunt63.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:35GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 25, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snapGo for it35.0%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.5%average punt
- Q1 4:48WYO 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snapGo for it62.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call62.0%−<0.158% to makePunt60.5%−1.6average punt
- Q1 2:59GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 38, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt38.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 13:10GAST 4th & 1 at WYO 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.1%71% to convertField goal29.9%−1.151% to makePunt29.5%−1.6average punt
- Q2 9:31GAST 4th & 7 at WYO 8, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snapGo for it29.8%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call30.0%90% to makePunt26.3%−3.6average punt
- Q2 2:01GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snapGo for it29.8%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.3%average punt
- Q3 12:16WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snapGo for it80.6%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.4%average punt
- Q3 10:30GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q3 6:06WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 33, up 14Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it86.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:02GAST 4th & 22 at GAST 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it12.8%−2.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%average punt
- Q3 0:31GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q4 12:18GAST 4th & 7 at WYO 10, down 21Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%−0.431% to convertField goal3.3%88% to makePunt0.7%−2.6average punt
- Q4 6:46GAST 4th & 1 at WYO 1, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%59% to convertField goal2.3%−1.194% to makePunt0.4%−2.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:59GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.9%97% to makeGo for two33.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:12WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.8%97% to makeGo for two63.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:35WYO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.9%97% to makeGo for two68.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:32WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.7%97% to makeGo for two76.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:12WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:43GAST Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.6%97% to makeGo for two15.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:21WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASTDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5834% → 35%
Q1 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
33.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 23 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2FG12 plays · 39 yds · 3:4965% → 63%
GASTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2237% → 36%
Q1 8:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 42 yds , Austin Conway returns for 7 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4MISSED FG10 plays · 31 yds · 3:3663% → 61%
Q1 6:33
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+14
37.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 14 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4139% → 40%
Q1 2:59
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-15
40.0%
Dan Ellington pass incomplete GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cornelius McCoy) to the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6TD3 plays · 23 yds · 0:4362% → 65%
GASTDrive 7INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
36.4%
Dan Ellington pass intercepted Alijah Halliburton return for 23 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8TD3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1765% → 69%
Q1 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
31.3%
Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 8 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9FG14 plays · 57 yds · 5:4732% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10INT11 plays · 56 yds · 5:3167% → 72%
GASTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2632% → 30%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
31.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 9 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12TD8 plays · 60 yds · 1:2273% → 80%
Q2 1:09
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-11
27.4%
Levi Williams sacked by Trajan Stephens-McQueen for a loss of 11 yards to the Wyom 34Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 16
OWN 34
+15
30.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Evan Jones) to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+51
19.8%
Levi Williams pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 51 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13END OF HALF4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2621% → 21%
WYODrive 14FUMBLE8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3579% → 81%
Q3 13:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
20.8%
Levi Williams pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 14 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+4
18.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to John Okwoli for 4 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+4
19.4%
Ryan Galovich punt for 33 yds , Quavian White returns for 4 yds to the GeoSt 27 Quavian White fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Jontrey HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3920% → 20%
WYODrive 16TD5 plays · 86 yds · 2:1382% → 94%
GASTDrive 17TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:179% → 20%
WYODrive 18PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1484% → 85%
Q3 6:06
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
14.9%
Ryan Galovich punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cornelius McCoy at the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 2:5816% → 14%
Q3 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-15
15.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Cadarrius Thompson) to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 25
OWN 27
+3
14.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Tra Barnett for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
14.1%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20TD6 plays · 74 yds · 1:2988% → 97%
GASTDrive 21FUMBLE5 plays · 0 yds · 0:455% → 4%
Q3 0:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 44 yds , Austin Conway returns for 4 yds to the Wyom 35 Austin Conway fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Seth GlausierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 25 yds · 3:065% → 3%
Q4 14:47
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+17
4.3%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 17 yds to the Wyom 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+7
4.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 7 yds to the Wyom 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
3.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Roger Carter for 3 yds to the Wyom 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23FUMBLE4 plays · 37 yds · 1:2298% → 98%
Q4 10:48
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+10
1.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for 10 yds to the Wyom 47 Xazavian Valladay fumbled, forced by Keon Carter, recovered by GeoSt Cedric StoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24DOWNS9 plays · 46 yds · 3:553% → 2%
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
2.8%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 3 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
2.6%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for 12 yds to the Wyom 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
2.5%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Devin Gentry for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 8Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
2.2%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 7 yds to the Wyom 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25Uncategorized12 plays · 91 yds · 6:4099% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:43
Dan Ellington pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 44 yds for a TD (Brandon Wright KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q3 8:12
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 1:21
Levi Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-8.2