Try the model
FLA

Florida 36 at Virginia 28

UVA
2019 · Capital One Orange Bowl · Dec 30, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.5UVA 21.2%Evan McPherson 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 14 · Q2 9:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:39 · Evan McPherson 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior−29.2Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:13: Lamical Perine run for 10 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +6.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:16: Evan McPherson 49 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +5.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:05: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +15.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 9:33: Kyle Trask run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FLA win probability +11.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:38: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +6.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:11UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:25UVA 4th & 1 at FLA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:39FLA 4th & 6 at UVA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:20UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:11FLA 4th & 8 at UVA 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:45UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:09UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:23FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:10UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:14FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:12UVA 4th & 19 at FLA 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:16FLA 4th & 9 at UVA 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:05FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.9%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:32FLA 4th & 3 at UVA 25, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:20FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:27UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:26FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:53UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:13FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:05UVA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:33FLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    88.9%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:38UVA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3087% → 87%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.9%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
13.0%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 14 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
12.9%
Lamical Perine run for 61 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4613% → 14%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
13.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
13.4%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
13.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
13.5%
Nash Griffin punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:1486% → 86%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
13.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
13.7%
Kyle Trask pass intercepted Nick Grant return for no gain to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
14.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 34 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:5486% → 86%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.4%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+19
15.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 19 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
14.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 7 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
15.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
15.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
15.4%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+17
15.7%
Emory Jones run for 17 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
15.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 6 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
15.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
16.0%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Kyle PittsSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
16.1%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
14.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 16 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
18 plays · 88 yds · 6:0715% → 23%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
15.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 15 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
15.2%
Joe Reed run for 8 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
15.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 4 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
15.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jabari Zuniga) to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+20
16.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jabari Zuniga) to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
16.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-1
17.0%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
16.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
16.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 3 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
17.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
17.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+11
17.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the Fla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
17.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
17.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds to the Fla 9Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
22.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:0479% → 79%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
20.8%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
21.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 15 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
20.7%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+27
21.1%
Lamical Perine run for 27 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
20.2%
Kyle Trask run for 2 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+8
20.1%
Kyle Trask run for 8 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
20.3%
Kyle Trask run for 10 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
20.5%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
20.7%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+7
21.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 7 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
20.9%
Kyle Trask pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
21.1%
Kyle Trask run for no gain to the Virg 6Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
21.7%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Jacob CopelandSimilar
Q2 9:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
21.2%
Evan McPherson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0522% → 22%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
22.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 3 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
22.2%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Khris Bogle and Ventrell Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
21.9%
Nash Griffin punt for 48 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 2 yds to the Fla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:4277% → 84%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+37
22.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 37 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
21.0%
Trask, Kyle pass complete to Pitts, Kyle for 31 yards to the VIRGINIA6, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Pitts, Kyle) 15 yards to the FLORIDA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 25
OWN 48
+3
22.6%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 22
OPP 49
+5
22.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 5 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+9
23.4%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Malik Davis for 9 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+11
23.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 11 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
21.7%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
22.1%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+8
21.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 8 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
15.8%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0216% → 17%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
16.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 13 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
17.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
17.5%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
17.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
16.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 49 yds, downed at the Fla 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:3682% → 85%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+26
17.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 26 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
16.5%
Kyle Trask run for 6 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-1
15.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kadarius Toney for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3717% → 16%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
16.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 6 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
16.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
16.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
16.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+1
16.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
16.0%
Nash Griffin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:2283% → 81%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.1%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
16.8%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
17.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 7 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
16.5%
Kyle Trask sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 16
OWN 32
-1
17.8%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+2
18.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 2 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
18.9%
Tommy Townsend punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4817% → 16%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
17.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-6
17.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Adam Shuler for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+6
16.2%
Joe Reed run for 6 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
15.5%
Nash Griffin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4383% → 83%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
16.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 5 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
16.5%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
17.3%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
17.5%
Tommy Townsend punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5518% → 15%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
18.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Dejon BrissettSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
17.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 14 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tanner CowleySimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
18.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-9
17.5%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 48 Bryce Perkins fumbled, forced by Jonathan Greenard, recovered by Virg Billy Kemp IV , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
15.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyrie Cleveland at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:4884% → 90%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+20
16.5%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 20 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
16.1%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+16
16.1%
Kyle Trask run for 16 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
14.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 19 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
14.2%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
14.3%
Kadarius Toney run for 1 yd to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
14.9%
Kyle Trask pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
9.7%
Evan McPherson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5613% → 32%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
13.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 52 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
15.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+5
15.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
15.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
15.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Dejon BrissettSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
31.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:2079% → 93%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
20.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Lamical Perine for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
19.5%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
19.6%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
21.2%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
18.1%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 30 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.0%
Kyle Trask run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:0311% → 10%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+23
11.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 23 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
12.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jonathan Greenard) to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+11
12.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
12.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 4 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+6
12.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
12.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 13
-4
12.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 17Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
10.3%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Kaiir Elam return for no gain to the Fla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:2893% → 98%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+53
6.6%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Van Jefferson for 53 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
5.7%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
5.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
4.2%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+11
3.7%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Freddie Swain for 11 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 2
OPP 24
-1
3.4%
Dameon Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
1.9%
Evan McPherson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:371% → 8%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
0.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 6 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+47
0.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 47 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
1.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+10
1.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 10 yds to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
1.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+12
1.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 12 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
1.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:05
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q4 9:33
Kyle Trask run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-11.1
TD · Q4 0:38
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com