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HAW

Hawai'i 38 at BYU 34

BYU
2019 · SoFi Hawai'i Bowl · Dec 24, 2019 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:15 · Jake Oldroyd punt for 38 yds, fair catch by JoJo Ward at the Hawa 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+1.5Pregame prior+2.9Garbage-time factor−0.9Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:42: Zach Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +9.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 3:16: Micah Simon run for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +11.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:16: Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +9.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:58: Zach Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +15.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:17: Cole McDonald pass complete to Nick Mardner for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK) — HAW win probability +74.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:31HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:41BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:50HAW 4th & 26 at BYU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:18BYU 4th & 15 at HAW 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:08BYU 4th & 4 at HAW 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−3.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:37HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:10HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:15BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:33HAW 4th & 19 at HAW 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−6.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:46HAW 4th & 11 at HAW 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−3.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:37BYU 4th & 3 at HAW 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%−2.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−18.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:19HAW 4th & 6 at BYU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:03BYU 4th & 6 at HAW 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−15.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:39HAW 4th & 3 at BYU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−4.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:07HAW 4th & 23 at BYU 39, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.3 ptsPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−6.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:01BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 26, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:32HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:55HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:54BYU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:33HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:42BYU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:16BYU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:16HAW Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:58BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:17HAW Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2443% → 43%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
57.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Miles Reed for 5 yds to the Hawa 32Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
57.4%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
57.4%
Cole McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
57.5%
Ben Scruton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5058% → 57%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
57.5%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
57.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
57.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
57.3%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 56 yds, downed at the Hawa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 5:0943% → 46%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
57.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 16 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
57.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 9 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
57.2%
Cedric Byrd II run for 2 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
57.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 16 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
57.0%
Miles Reed run for 4 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
56.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+21
57.0%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 21 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
56.6%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 13Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
56.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 6 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
53.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4255% → 55%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
54.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
54.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 10 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
54.7%
Zach Wilson pass intercepted Khoury Bethley return for 21 yds to the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:5147% → 51%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.0%
Miles Reed run for no gain to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
48.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:5750% → 54%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
50.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 6 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
50.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+8
50.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 8 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
50.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
49.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
49.2%
Zach Wilson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
49.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 6 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
49.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 31 yds to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
48.7%
Masen Wake run for 2 yds to the Hawa 1Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:1548% → 57%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
51.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 17 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.3%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+58
50.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 58 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
49.6%
Dayton Furuta run for 1 yd to the BYU 2Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
49.3%
Cole McDonald run for 1 yd to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.3%
Cole McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4945% → 53%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
44.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 12 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
45.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 22 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
44.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the Hawa 39Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+26
44.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 26 yds to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
44.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 4 yds to the Hawa 9Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+8
43.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.4%
Zach Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:4650% → 56%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
49.8%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
49.8%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+15
49.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 15 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
46.2%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Cedric Byrd IISimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+47
46.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 47 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
44.9%
Cole McDonald sacked by JJ Nwigwe for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 22Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 20
OPP 22
+4
44.7%
Miles Reed run for 4 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 16
OPP 18
-10
45.1%
Cole McDonald sacked by Zac Dawe for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 26
OPP 28
+46
44.5%
Ryan Meskell 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2944% → 58%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
43.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 24 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
45.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 16 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
46.7%
Micah Simon pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
46.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+12
45.1%
Zach Wilson run for 12 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
46.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 6 yds to the Hawa 11Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
58.1%
Micah Simon run for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 1:5548% → 62%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
52.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 7 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-1
50.7%
Cole McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+21
50.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 21 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
48.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
48.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 11 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
47.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-5
47.0%
HAWAII Penalty, False Start (Taaga Tuulima) to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+13
48.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 13 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+7
47.9%
Cole McDonald run for 7 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
38.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 0:5740% → 44%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.1%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
39.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 6 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+12
38.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 12 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+37
42.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 22 yds to the HAWAII 30 for a 1ST down HAWAII Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jeremiah Pritchard) to the Hawa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
43.9%
Zach Wilson sacked by Derek Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 18Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 13
OPP 18
-2
41.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 20Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
37.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
43.5%
Jake Oldroyd 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
40.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5143% → 43%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.0%
Zach Wilson run for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
43.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
50
+6
45.9%
Dax Milne run for 6 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
46.1%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
45.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
43.3%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 34 yds, fair catch by JoJo Ward at the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3160% → 58%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
40.4%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Dayton FurutaSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
40.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
41.7%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+52
42.4%
Stan Gaudion punt for 48 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for 52 yds to the Hawa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3947% → 62%
Q3 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
46.7%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 2Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.4%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4246% → 44%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
54.4%
Cole McDonald run for no gain to the Hawa 28Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
54.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+6
55.8%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 6 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+31
56.1%
Ben Scruton punt for 51 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for 31 yds to the BYU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5561% → 58%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.8%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
59.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
59.7%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
57.5%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 38 yds, fair catch by JoJo Ward at the Hawa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:4245% → 42%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
54.9%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 11Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 12
OWN 11
-7
55.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Atunaisa Mahe for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 4Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 19
OWN 4
0
56.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 19
OWN 4
0
58.0%
Ben Scruton punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Hawa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:4263% → 62%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
63.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+9
63.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 9 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
63.3%
Aleva Hifo run for 5 yds to the Hawa 19Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+12
63.4%
Zach Wilson run for 12 yds to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
63.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the Hawa 4Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
63.2%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 5Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
61.7%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds Zach Wilson fumbled, forced by Eugene Ford, recovered by Hawa Manly WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0546% → 43%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.7%
Cole McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
54.1%
Cole McDonald sacked by Seleti Fevaleaki for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 19Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
55.8%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+14
57.1%
Ben Scruton punt for 52 yds , Aleva Hifo returns for 14 yds to the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:0961% → 70%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
60.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 15 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
62.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 5 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+15
62.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 15 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
63.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 13 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
63.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the Hawa 3Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
63.8%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for no gain to the Hawa 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.0%
Aleva Hifo run for no gain to the Hawa 3Similar
Q4 14:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
69.8%
Jake Oldroyd 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:1234% → 36%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
66.1%
Jason-Matthew Sharsh run for 3 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
66.1%
Miles Reed run for 4 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+46
66.4%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 46 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Lorenzo Fauatea) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
59.1%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
59.1%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+1
61.6%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
64.3%
Ryan Meskell 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:1670% → 72%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
69.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+36
69.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 36 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
73.7%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-5
73.7%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Jackson McChesney) to the Hawa 42Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
73.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 43Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+15
72.1%
Wilson, Zach pass incomplete to Shumway, Talon, PENALTY HAWAII pass interference (Davis, Cortez) 15 yards to the HAWAII28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
75.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
75.8%
Zach Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 29Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+5
73.5%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 24Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
71.9%
Jake Oldroyd 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25PUNT
15 plays · 37 yds · 4:5633% → 29%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
66.6%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
66.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 7 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
66.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 4 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
65.6%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 5 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
62.5%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jason-Matthew Sharsh for 7 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.3%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Jared Smart for 5 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
61.1%
Cole McDonald run for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
61.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jared SmartSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+20
64.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd II for 20 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
58.5%
HAWAII Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 15
OPP 31
0
61.5%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
62.8%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Jason-Matthew SharshSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 15
OPP 31
-8
66.0%
Cole McDonald sacked by JJ Nwigwe for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 23
OPP 39
0
70.9%
Stan Gaudion punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:0679% → 85%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
79.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+6
79.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+6
79.1%
Zach Wilson run for 6 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
85.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+7
86.4%
Aleva Hifo run for 7 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
86.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 2
OWN 26
-9
84.8%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 37 yds , JoJo Ward returns for a loss of 9 yards to the Hawa 17 HAWAII Penalty, Illegal Block (14 Yards) to the Hawa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 0:4412% → 93%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
88.1%
BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Max Tooley) to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
83.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to JoJo WardSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
84.9%
Cole McDonald run for 9 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+38
81.7%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Nick Mardner for 38 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
7.1%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Nick Mardner for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:5124% → 24%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
23.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 17 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
24.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
50
+6
25.1%
Zach Wilson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 44Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
32.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 4 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
24.4%
Zach Wilson pass intercepted Khoury Bethley return for 8 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:17
Cole McDonald pass complete to Nick Mardner for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Meskell KICK)
-74.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-24.4
TD · Q3 11:58
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com