Try the model
FIU

Florida International 26 at Arkansas State 34

ARST
2019 · Camellia Bowl · Dec 21, 2019 · Cramton Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.6ARST 62.5%Blake Grupe 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 20 · Q2 3:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:05 · Blake Grupe 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense+7.6Pregame prior−4.5Garbage-time factor+3.3Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:50: Napoleon Maxwell run for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +6.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:22: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +12.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:48: James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 19 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +16.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:38: Jose Borregales 48 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +7.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:37: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +22.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:42FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:57ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:30FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:31ARST 4th & 4 at FIU 28, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:30FIU 4th & 2 at ARST 8, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%−1.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−7.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:05ARST 4th & 13 at FIU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:40FIU 4th & 8 at ARST 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:07FIU 4th & 1 at ARST 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−2.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−10.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:54ARST 4th & 15 at FIU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:38FIU 4th & 8 at ARST 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:11ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.8%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:52FIU 4th & 7 at ARST 35, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:31ARST 4th & 2 at FIU 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−5.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−4.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:10FIU 4th & 7 at ARST 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−8.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−20.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:51FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:37ARST 4th & 9 at FIU 40, up 8
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:25ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:55ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:50FIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:22ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:48FIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:37ARST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FIUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0758% → 58%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.9%
Anthony Jones run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
41.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 9 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
42.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 3 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
42.1%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+4
42.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 4 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
42.4%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 3:1243% → 46%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
42.6%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
42.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
42.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
42.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
42.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 15 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
43.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
43.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+22
43.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 22 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
43.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
43.9%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+8
43.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
44.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
44.1%
Jamal Jones run for 14 yds to the FlaIn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
44.3%
Jones, Jamal rush for no gain to the FLAINTL8, PENALTY FLAINTL face mask 4 yards to the FLAINTL4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q1 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
46.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5654% → 53%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.7%
Anthony Jones run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
45.8%
Anthony Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
46.3%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
46.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 47 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0847% → 47%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
46.7%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
46.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+4
46.6%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
46.8%
Cody Grace punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tony Gaiter IV at the FlaIn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:2253% → 51%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
47.2%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 17 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
47.3%
Napoleon Maxwell run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+11
48.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 11 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
47.4%
Napoleon Maxwell run for no gain to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
48.8%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 48 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 3:2949% → 59%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
49.0%
Marcel Murray run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
49.3%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
49.6%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+20
49.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 20 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
50.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
50.8%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+11
50.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 11 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
51.5%
Omar Bayless pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
51.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
51.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 14 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
51.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+15
52.0%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlaIn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
52.3%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 9Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
52.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
58.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:5844% → 49%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
56.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 15 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
56.2%
James Morgan run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+2
56.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 2 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+35
56.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 20 yds to the ARKST 33 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
55.4%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+5
55.8%
Anthony Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
56.4%
Anthony Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
57.0%
Anthony Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.7%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:1053% → 57%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
53.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 18 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
54.7%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+9
54.9%
Layne Hatcher run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
56.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 11 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
56.7%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
56.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+3
56.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
56.9%
Blake Grupe 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:4043% → 44%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
56.6%
Anthony Jones run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
50
+15
56.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 15 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
56.0%
Anthony Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
56.1%
Anthony Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+15
57.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
56.6%
Anthony Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
56.9%
Anthony Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
58.4%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
56.5%
Jose Borregales 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:1459% → 63%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
59.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
59.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+10
58.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+51
60.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 51 yds to the FlaIn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
62.7%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
63.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
62.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 8
OPP 15
-5
60.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
62.5%
Blake Grupe 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 2:1436% → 42%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
63.7%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
64.1%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+42
65.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 42 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
60.2%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
60.2%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-5
61.5%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+26
62.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 20 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
59.2%
Anthony Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.2%
Anthony Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
60.7%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
58.3%
Jose Borregales 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2561% → 61%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
61.3%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 2:2463% → 79%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
63.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
62.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.2%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
63.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+19
63.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 19 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+20
66.3%
Jamal Jones run for 20 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
66.7%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 17Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
66.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
65.8%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
78.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14DOWNS
17 plays · 58 yds · 6:5823% → 20%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
76.9%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+24
77.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 24 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
76.0%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 3
50
-10
74.9%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+2
78.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for 2 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+16
78.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 16 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
76.9%
Anthony Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
76.7%
Anthony Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+9
78.0%
Anthony Jones run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
76.6%
Anthony Jones run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
76.7%
Anthony Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-15
77.0%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
78.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Kamareon Williams for 8 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
77.6%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
79.0%
Anthony Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-1
80.2%
Anthony Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2385% → 86%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
85.4%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-1
85.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Stantley Thomas-Oliver III for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 23 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by FlaInSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:3221% → 37%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
79.2%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
62.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 19 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:4073% → 74%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
73.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
50
+12
76.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 12 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
76.4%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-5
78.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Noah Curtis and Rashad Colson for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
76.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 10
OPP 38
-5
74.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
73.6%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18FG
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:0930% → 39%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+48
70.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 48 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
66.1%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
65.8%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
68.9%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
61.0%
Jose Borregales 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19INT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:3666% → 68%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.3%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
65.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 10 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
65.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
65.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.5%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Rishard Dames return for no gain to the FlaIn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:5537% → 43%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
62.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
60.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Darrius Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+20
62.1%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
58.8%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
59.0%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
59.7%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
56.7%
Jose Borregales 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:1160% → 63%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
60.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 14 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
62.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Andrew Tarver for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+6
60.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+11
59.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
50
-3
65.3%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+4
62.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 4 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+7
62.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
62.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:2045% → 43%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
55.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 3 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+13
54.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 13 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
52.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 27 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
49.6%
Anthony Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
50.8%
Anthony Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
53.2%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
57.4%
Jose Borregales 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:2463% → 95%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
62.7%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+7
68.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 22 yds to the ARKST 49 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+52
64.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 52 yds to the FlaIn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
70.2%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 13Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
95.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:1110% → 7%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 5 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
89.9%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
93.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 7 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
93.1%
James Morgan pass intercepted Jeremy Smith return for 21 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:4096% → 97%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
96.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
96.0%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+1
97.3%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 35
-5
96.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
96.8%
Cody Grace punt for 28 yds, downed at the FlaIn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 26INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:135% → 5%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
95.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlaIn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
95.1%
James Morgan pass intercepted Darreon Jackson return for 12 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:37
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+22
TD · Q3 3:48
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 19 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 12:22
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com