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ARST

Arkansas State 30 at South Alabama 34

USA
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2019 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Jack Brooks punt for 51 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 15 yds to the ArkSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior−15.3Home team on offense+6.7Garbage-time factor+1.7Score differential+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:03: Tra Minter run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT BLOCKED) — USA win probability +16.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:53: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 31 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +22.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:29: Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +20.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 3:51: Blake Grupe 20 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +18.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:18: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 26 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +50.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 7 at USA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50USA 4th & 6 at USA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:52USA 4th & 12 at USA 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:20ARST 4th & 2 at USA 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:16USA 4th & 2 at ARST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:12ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 7 at USA 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:31ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 11, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:04ARST 4th & 5 at USA 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:25USA 4th & 30 at USA 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:14ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 2 at USA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:50ARST 4th & 6 at USA 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−10.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:53USA 4th & 3 at ARST 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−2.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−5.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:29USA 4th & 16 at USA 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−6.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:22ARST 4th & 7 at USA 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−2.6
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−13.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:22USA 4th & 2 at USA 39, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−2.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:51ARST 4th & 3 at USA 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%−4.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−31.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:51USA 4th & 8 at USA 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.5%−1.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:44USA 4th & 1 at ARST 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−1.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−9.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 9:52ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:12USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:03USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:41ARST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:53USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:29ARST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:18USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
22.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
22.6%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+10
22.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
22.6%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
22.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
22.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
22.6%
Cody Grace punt for 48 yds, downed at the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
23.7%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 2Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
23.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+3
23.6%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+3
23.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 47 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:3676% → 77%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
24.0%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Merritt, Kirk, PENALTY USA pass interference (Reed, Travis) 15 yards to the USA34, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
24.0%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
24.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+23
24.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 23 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
24.0%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the SAlab 5 Marcel Murray fumbled, forced by Maurice Strong Jr.,Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
23.7%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 12Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
23.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 12
-3
23.6%
Desmond Trotter run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 9Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 12
OWN 9
+7
23.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 42 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 7 yds to the ArkSt 16 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (Jamal Jones) to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
23.5%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+23
23.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 23 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
23.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
23.4%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+4
23.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 4 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+1
23.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:0424% → 30%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
24.3%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
24.3%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+36
24.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 36 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
25.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+2
25.1%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
25.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Carlos Davis for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+11
24.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
29.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 21 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Diego Guajardo) to the ArkSt 8 (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
28.2%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 26 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Layne HatcherSimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+6
28.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
28.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+8
28.9%
Cody Grace punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 24 , Tra Minter returns for 8 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 2:0029% → 37%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
29.4%
Desmond Trotter run for 9 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+9
30.1%
Tra Minter run for 9 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
30.2%
Tra Minter run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
30.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 10 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
36.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 30 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
34.8%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
34.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt, broken up by Roy YanceySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+9
34.9%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
34.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
34.4%
Layne Hatcher run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-5
33.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
34.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 10 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
33.5%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-2
33.5%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jeffery Whatley for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 48 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+4
34.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 4 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
34.8%
Cody Grace punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FUMBLE
13 plays · 94 yds · 2:5339% → 46%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
39.0%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+19
39.0%
Desmond Trotter run for 19 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
39.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 10 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
40.1%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
40.6%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+20
39.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 20 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
46.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Brandon Crum for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+10
46.4%
Tony Brown run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
46.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
46.4%
Davis, Carlos rush for 1 yard to the ASU20 (Louis, Kirk;Wescott, Logan), PENALTY ASU substitution infraction 5 yards to the ASU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
46.4%
Desmond Trotter run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
46.4%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 2 Carlos Davis fumbled, forced by Jarius Reimonenq, recovered by ArkSt Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
46.0%
Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 1
OWN 11
0
45.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
46.3%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+2
46.9%
Cody Grace punt for 56 yds , Tra Minter returns for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
47.9%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
47.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+4
47.5%
Desmond Trotter pass intercepted B.J. Edmonds return for 4 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
45.1%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
45.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Devin RocketteSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+2
45.5%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
46.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 0 yds · 1:3151% → 50%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
51.3%
Kawaan Baker run for 6 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
52.1%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
51.3%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
52.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 10 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
52.4%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 0
-16
51.0%
Trotter,Desmond pass complete to Tolbert, Jalen for 38 yards to the ASU0, clock 01:30, PENALTY USA ineligible downfield on pass (Thompson, Nick) 5 yards to the ASU43, NO PLAY, PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct (Tolbert, Jalen) 15 yards to the USA42, NO PLAY, PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct 16 yards to the USA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 43
OWN 26
+3
50.5%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 40
OWN 29
+10
50.1%
Tra Minter run for 10 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 30
OWN 39
0
49.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 42 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
52.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Maurice Strong Jr. and Rocel McWilliams for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+7
52.8%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+2
53.4%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+13
53.9%
Cody Grace punt for 58 yds , Tra Minter returns for 13 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
52.0%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Brandon CrumSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
50.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Brandon Crum for 4 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+15
50.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 51 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 15 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:5249% → 53%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
51.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
49.7%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
50.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 16 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-2
46.7%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 44 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+39
50.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 34 yds to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Riley Cole) to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
46.7%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 8Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
46.7%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Travis ReedSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
46.7%
Blake Grupe 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:4751% → 72%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
50.9%
Tra Minter run for 9 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+5
52.9%
Damean Bivins run for 5 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
52.9%
Carlos Davis run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
53.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Carlos Davis for 6 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
53.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 14 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
55.1%
Damean Bivins run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+8
55.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 8 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
55.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 14 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
55.0%
Tra Minter run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.0%
Trotter,Desmond pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Reimonenq, J.) 0 yards to the ASU1, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.8%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2232% → 52%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
67.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 20 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
65.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 7 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
63.9%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+22
64.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 22 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
62.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 12 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
62.5%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
62.5%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
48.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:4856% → 78%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.4%
Tony Brown run for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
55.0%
Tony Brown run for 7 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+15
56.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 15 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
58.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
57.9%
Cade Sutherland run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+10
55.0%
Desmond Trotter run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+31
77.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 31 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:2424% → 49%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
76.4%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
73.9%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
74.0%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
73.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 5 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+7
73.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
72.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 30 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
71.7%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 0
+1
71.7%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY USA pass interference (Reed, Travis) 1 yards to the USA1, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY, PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct (Reed, Travis) 0 yards to the USA1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0063% → 59%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.5%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
62.2%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Tajhea Chambers for a loss of 10 yards to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+3
60.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Tra Minter for 3 yds to the SAlab 19 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+14
58.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 46 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23FG
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:1645% → 55%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
55.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 25 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
52.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Travis ReedSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
53.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+3
55.3%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
45.3%
Blake Grupe 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
52.1%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
54.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
54.1%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
50.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25FG
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:3752% → 77%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
48.2%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+9
46.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+53
46.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 53 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
40.1%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
40.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman, broken up by Travis ReedSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
42.1%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
40.1%
Kirk Merritt run for 2 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt, broken up by Kelvin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.2%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
23.3%
Blake Grupe 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:3336% → 94%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
36.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
35.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
34.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Logan WescottSimilar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+11
32.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Tra Minter for 11 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Tra Minter for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
40.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+17
36.9%
Tra Minter run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
43.3%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+26
93.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 26 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
72.9%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Rocel McWilliams for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 35 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by SAlab Jeffery Whatley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:1794% → 95%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
93.5%
Jared Wilson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
94.8%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
94.3%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
94.7%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:18
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 26 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+50.2
TD · Q4 14:53
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 31 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+22.7
TD · Q4 12:29
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
-20.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com