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CCU

Coastal Carolina 27 at Arkansas State 28

ARST
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:26 · CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+17.8Home team on offense−6.8Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:59: Fred Payton pass complete to Jai Williams for 31 yds for a TD — CCU win probability +15.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:43: Bryce Carpenter pass intercepted for a TD Caleb Bonner return for 66 yds for a TD — ARST win probability +15.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:59: CJ Marable run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, HL ( Yards) declined — CCU win probability +25.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 2:31: Jacqez Hairston run for 9 yds for a TD (B. Carpenter Run For Two-point Conversion) — CCU win probability +47.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:32: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +57.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 13 of 13
  1. Q1 11:05CCU 4th & 2 at ARST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05CCU 4th & 1 at ARST 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11ARST 4th & 10 at CCU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:21CCU 4th & 7 at ARST 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 9 at CCU 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:00CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:07CCU 4th & 10 at ARST 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:07ARST 4th & 6 at CCU 38, up 1
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:30CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.4%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:38ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:26CCU 4th & 3 at ARST 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.6%−1.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:52CCU 4th & 4 at CCU 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:03CCU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.5%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:36CCU 4th & 1 at ARST 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−4.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at CCU 11, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−2.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−12.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:35CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:35CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:18CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.6%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 4:07ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:59CCU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:43ARST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:06ARST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:59CCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:31CCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.8 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.8%−1.8
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:32ARST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−6.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1DOWNS
17 plays · 57 yds · 3:5519% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
81.1%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
81.1%
Bryce Carpenter run for 6 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
81.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 7 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
81.1%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
81.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 11 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
81.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 3 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
81.1%
Bryce Carpenter run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+2
79.9%
Baden Pinson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+5
80.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 5 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
79.7%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+4
79.9%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+5
79.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Kevin Thurmon) to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
79.9%
Carpenter, B. pass complete to White, R. for 3 yards to the ASU15, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU offside defense (Iwuchukwu, N.) 5 yards to the ASU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
79.8%
Baden Pinson run for no gain to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
80.0%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+39
79.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 39 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
79.7%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
79.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Derick BushSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-3
79.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Sterling Johnson and C.J. Brewer for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
79.1%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds, downed at the CCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
78.6%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 4
OWN 11
-5
78.5%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 7 Bryce Carpenter fumbled, forced by Tajhea Chambers, recovered by ArkSt William Bradley-KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4580% → 82%
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.5%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the CCaro 7Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:4619% → 21%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+22
80.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 22 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
80.0%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
80.0%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to CJ MarableSimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+29
80.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 29 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
79.6%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
79.6%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
80.0%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
78.7%
Massimo Biscardi 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 44 yds · 1:1479% → 78%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
78.6%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+30
78.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 30 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
79.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
79.0%
Marcel Murray run for 12 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
79.4%
Hatcher, Layne rush for 9 yards to the CCU40 (Paul, L.), PENALTY ASU HL (Scott, Ivory) 10 yards to the ASU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 41
-3
78.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 38
0
78.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 38
+14
78.2%
Marcel Murray run for 14 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+22
78.3%
Cody Grace punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 11 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the CCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
78.4%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
78.5%
Jacqez Hairston run for 5 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
78.4%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon Heiligh, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+10
79.1%
Myles Prosser punt for 41 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
78.4%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 38 Jamal Jones fumbled, forced by Cincir Evans, recovered by CCaro Brayden MattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:3723% → 24%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
76.9%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+8
76.9%
Bryce Carpenter run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
76.9%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+1
76.3%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 27 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-1
76.4%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
77.1%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
75.6%
Massimo Biscardi 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
77.0%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt, broken up by Tarron JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+20
77.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 20 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
78.3%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY ASU HL (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the ASU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-4
77.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 24
OWN 44
+18
77.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 18 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
78.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
77.2%
Cody Grace punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:3724% → 41%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
75.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 6 yds to the CCaro 16Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
75.8%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
76.2%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+4
76.2%
Baden Pinson run for 4 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
75.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 5 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+7
74.5%
Fred Payton run for 7 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
74.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 34 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
58.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jai Williams for 31 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:2163% → 62%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete, broken up by C.J. BrewerSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-13
62.6%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Adams, Jonathan for 75 yards to the CCU0, clock 03:44, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Adams, Jonathan) 13 yards to the ASU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 23
OWN 12
-6
62.4%
Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Merritt, Kirk for 23 yards to the ASU35 (Burton, K.), PENALTY ASU HL (Horst, Jarrett) 6 yards to the ASU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 29
OWN 6
+10
62.1%
Marcel Murray run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+7
61.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 7 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+6
61.7%
Cody Grace punt for 42 yds , Ky'Jon Tyler returns for 6 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
59.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 2 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
59.6%
Fred Payton run for 6 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
59.3%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
58.7%
Fred Payton run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
58.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
58.9%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon Heiligh, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+2
60.2%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+30
62.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 30 yds Omar Bayless fumbled, forced by Brayden Matts, recovered by CCaro Kameron BurtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
59.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 9 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-5
57.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
57.2%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Larry Collins Jr.Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-10
58.0%
Payton, F. rush for 2 yards to the CCU47 (Wescott, Logan), PENALTY CCU HL (Carter, T.) 10 yards to the CCU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+12
61.4%
CJ Marable run for 12 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+24
59.1%
CJ Marable run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16INT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
62.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
60.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
61.2%
Murray, Marcel rush for 6 yards to the ASU41 (Brewer, C.), PENALTY ASU HL (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the ASU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+17
60.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 17 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-6
63.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 12 yds to the ARKST 46 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Javonis Isaac) to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
61.4%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Sterling Johnson and Tarron Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
59.4%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Shadell Bell return for no gain to the CCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17INT TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:2045% → 32%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
54.8%
Bryce Carpenter run for 10 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
53.1%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
53.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
53.9%
Bryce Carpenter run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 1
50
+2
54.5%
Baden Pinson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
52.5%
CJ Marable run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+66
68.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass intercepted for a TD Caleb Bonner return for 66 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
69.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 37Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+1
71.5%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 38Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+15
71.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 15 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
68.0%
Fred Payton sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 49Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-5
68.5%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+5
69.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+10
69.9%
Fred Payton run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-2
70.0%
Baden Pinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+3
70.2%
Fred Payton pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5072% → 88%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
72.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 24 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
74.1%
Marcel Murray run for 11 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
74.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 12 yds to the CCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
74.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the CCaro 5Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+2
74.9%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the CCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
74.9%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 7Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.8%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 20Similar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
86.0%
Fred Payton pass intercepted Jarius Reimonenq return for no gain to the CCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:5589% → 88%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
89.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 13 yds to the CCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
89.0%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the CCaro 14Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-5
89.0%
Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Adams, Jonathan, PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass (Scott, Ivory) 5 yards to the CCU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
89.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 5 yds to the CCaro 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
88.4%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
87.5%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the CCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
86.1%
Bryce Carpenter run for 4 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
86.1%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 18Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+2
86.8%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q4 14:35
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+2
87.2%
Baden Pinson run for 2 yds to the CCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
85.9%
Bryce Carpenter run for 3 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+18
85.6%
CJ Marable run for 18 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
84.7%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
85.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for no gain to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+4
86.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 4 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q4 14:35
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
86.5%
Myles Prosser punt for 43 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
89.0%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted Derick Bush return for 17 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4617% → 42%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
83.1%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+4
83.6%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+6
84.7%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 2
OPP 8
-5
85.9%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Kameren Stewart) to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+6
86.6%
Carpenter, B. pass intercepted by Fletcher, A. at the ASU1, Fletcher, A. return to the ASU1, PENALTY ASU roughing passer (Bradley-King, W) 6 yards to the ASU7, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
83.1%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Darreon Jackson) to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.9%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, HL ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 3:1842% → 89%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
57.8%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
58.3%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+7
60.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
57.8%
CJ Marable run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+1
57.8%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
10.6%
Jacqez Hairston run for 9 yds for a TD (B. Carpenter Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 1:5327% → 83%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
26.7%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
27.5%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+7
25.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
28.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reed Tyler for 19 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
33.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 4 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
34.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
25.1%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
27.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 8 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
29.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
25.6%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
83.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1432% → 25%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.5%
CJ Marable run for 9 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
64.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
65.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
74.9%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
92.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:32
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
+57.5
TD · Q4 2:31
Jacqez Hairston run for 9 yds for a TD (B. Carpenter Run For Two-point Conversion)
-47.2
TD · Q4 5:59
CJ Marable run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, HL ( Yards) declined
-25.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com